1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene rose first and then fell in the first ten days of this month, remained stable in the middle of this month, and fluctuated and fell in the second ten days of this month. On August 1, the price of mixed xylene was 5900 yuan / ton; On August 31, the price was 5730 yuan / ton, down 2.88% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 63.25%.
2、 Analysis and review
At the beginning of the month, the price of mixed xylene increased slightly due to tight supply, but the downstream continued demand was weak and stable, and the rising power of mixed xylene was insufficient. With the broad decline of crude oil, the weak stability of the market was broken, the bearish psychology increased, and the mixed benzene and toluene followed the decline of crude oil. The rebound of crude oil led to a slight recovery of mixed xylene mentality, but the downstream demand shrank again, and the price fell again at the end of the month.
In terms of crude oil, the trend of crude oil fluctuated and rose after falling in August. The market is still concerned about the impact of delta mutation virus on demand recovery. Compared with July 30, Brent fell by US $3.34/barrel, or 4.38%; WTI fell $4.45/barrel, or 7.37%.
In terms of external market, as of August 31, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $770.5/t, down US $42 / T or 5.17% from July 30; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 792 US dollars / ton, down 41 US dollars / ton or 4.92% from July 30.
In the downstream PX market, the domestic PX market stabilized after rising at the beginning of this month. The price at the end of the month was 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.82% over the beginning of the month and 58.7% over the same period last year.
In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China fluctuated downward this month. At the end of the month, the price was 4926.36 yuan / ton, down 11.11% from the beginning of the month and up 37.62% from the same period last year.
In terms of ox market, ox in East China stabilized after rising at the beginning of the month and rose again at the end of the month. The price at the end of the month was 6360 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.58% over the beginning of the month and 44.55% over the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
On the raw material side, the trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty. The spread of delta virus still restricts the recovery of demand, and international oil prices are under short-term pressure. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.
The short-term weak demand side is difficult to change, and mixed xylene is expected to continue the weak trend. In September, pay attention to whether the downstream demand has improved. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance and inventory dynamics of mixed xylene unit and the impact of downstream demand on its price.
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