According to the monitoring data, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride on December 31 was 135.26, an increase of 0.06 points compared with yesterday, a decrease of 5.17% compared with the highest point of 142.64 points in the cycle (2021-11-01), and an increase of 60.41% compared with the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride increased slightly in December. On December 1, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride was 2356.25 yuan / ton, and on December 31, the mainstream quotation was about 2502.22 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 6.20%. Recently, crude oil continued to rise, raw material costs fluctuated slightly, some enterprises stopped work years ago, market demand was weak and transactions were general.

On the macro level, the expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories last week boosted the oil price, and tight supply formed a strong support for the oil market. Recently, the international crude oil rose strongly. As of December 28, the settlement price of the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was reported at $75.98/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported at $78.67/barrel.

As shown in the figure above, according to the price monitoring of the trading society, 78 commodities rose month on month in December 2021, mainly in the chemical sector (35 in total) and the non-ferrous sector (13 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top three commodities were chloroform (41.13%), lithium carbonate (37.11%) and dichloromethane (36.91%). A total of 141 commodities decreased month on month, mainly in chemical industry (62 in total) and rubber and plastics (19 in total), and commodities with a decrease of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical sector; The commodities with the top three declines were melamine (- 40.08%), liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%) and baking soda (- 29.05%). The average rise and fall this month was – 1.69%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society shows that the domestic hydrochloric acid market price first fell and then rose this month. The quotation first fell from 324.00 yuan / ton on December 1 to 296.00 yuan / ton on December 17, down 28.00 yuan / ton, down 8.64%, then rose to 330.00 yuan / ton on December 21, up 11.49%, and finally fell to 320.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month. On the whole, the hydrochloric acid market has twists and turns this month, first falling, then rising and then falling. From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak. The downstream ammonium chloride market fell slightly, which had a negative impact on hydrochloric acid. The price of downstream ammonium chloride decreased from 1170.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1095.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 6.41%; The white carbon black market fell slightly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

LNG is used in the production process. In the fourth quarter, domestic LNG prices rose first and then fell, and the peak season was not prosperous. In October, the demand for urban fuel increased, the price of raw materials increased, the overhaul of liquid plants, the tightening of market supply and other multiple positive superposition, which boosted the increase of liquid price by nearly 30% and shifted the focus upward. Early November is the highest point of the year, and then the downlink channel is opened. The downward trend did not stop in December, and Xinjiang fell to around 2000 yuan. Near the end of the month, the temperature has dropped sharply recently, the market trading atmosphere has improved, and the inventory pressure of liquid plants has been reduced. With the shutdown of some liquid plants and the consideration of cost, the domestic liquid price has continued to rise.

As for the future market, compared with the trend in recent years, if there is no strong driving of the general environment, the future market is likely to be stable and weak. Recently, crude oil continues to rise, raw material prices fluctuate slightly, market support is weak, downstream demand is weak, and the trend of polyaluminium chloride is weak; In the macro weak environment, it is expected that there will be little action in the polyaluminium chloride Market in the short term, so beware of the downside risk of chemical raw materials.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on December 30 was 4908.33 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of December 27, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 659200 tons, a decrease of 33600 tons or 4.85% compared with last Monday and 24400 tons or 3.57% compared with last Thursday.

On December 29, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 4805 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton from the previous trading day and 1.33 yuan / ton from last week.

Weak coal prices and sluggish PE demand are further depressing ethylene prices. Oil prices have risen for several consecutive days, and U.S. fuel demand has remained good, reducing the impact of Omicron on economic growth. The Ministry of Commerce recently issued the first batch of crude oil import quotas in 2022, totaling 109.03 million tons. The quota was 11% lower than that in the same period last year. In the afternoon, the focus of Meg’s external market rose, and the negotiation was around us $635 / ton. The demand side of polyester is still under pressure and the negotiation is weak.

Forecast: low shock.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (December 29): 30666.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business society, on December 29, the price of refrigerant R134a was temporarily stable and the price of raw hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable, but the demand of the vehicle market was always light, the shipment was not smooth at the end of the year, the inventory of the enterprise accumulated, the offer of the cargo holder continued to decline, and the mentality of the operator was negative. At present, the price of raw hydrofluoric acid is about 12700 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 25000-29000 yuan / ton, The actual transaction has a large profit margin.

R134a market is expected to decline in the short term.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on December 28 was 4875 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of December 27, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 659200 tons, a decrease of 33600 tons or 4.85% compared with last Monday and 24400 tons or 3.57% compared with last Thursday.

On December 27, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 4793 yuan / ton, down 62 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.28%.

The upstream crude oil market is expected to expand due to market expectations that the Omicron COVID-19 variant has limited impact on global demand. The arrival of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease and the port inventory is removed from the warehouse. However, in the long run, the production of new units still has an impact on the market mentality. MEG spot atmosphere is stalemate, the external market is light in the afternoon, and the recent cargo negotiation is around us $635 / ton. The demand side polyester market is still weak, and there is no significant change in the short term.

Forecast: the fundamentals continue to be weak and fluctuate at a low level.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic nitrile rubber was 24100 yuan / ton on the 27th, which was stable compared with the previous day. The demand for nitrile rubber is mainly weak due to the low start-up in the downstream off-season. The raw butadiene has decreased by more than 20% since December, and the cost continues to weaken. The market offer was adjusted in a narrow range. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 27, the mainstream price of domestic Lanhua nitrile n41e was 23800 yuan / ton; Shunze 3355 mainstream newspaper 24000 yuan / ton; Nandi nitrile 1052 mainstream reported around 25000 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the market supply and demand is weak, and the cost is low. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market may continue to consolidate downward in the short term.