1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business society, the price of pure benzene fell continuously this week. On August 15, the price of pure benzene was 7450-7600 yuan / ton (average price 7540 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (August 22), the price of pure benzene was 7250-7550 yuan / ton (average price 7480 yuan / ton). The average price decreased by 60 yuan / ton, or 0.8%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 119.35%.

2、 Analysis and review

Affected by the epidemic situation in the early stage, the import ship was delayed, and the delivery near the end of the month, the domestic purchase was more active, and the negotiation of pure benzene was better. However, during the week, crude oil fell deeply, coupled with the continuous decline of styrene, the fundamental support weakened, pure benzene was under pressure, and the price fell.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market on Friday (August 20) was US $935 / ton, down US $44 / ton, or 4.49%, compared with August 13; The reference import price in East China was US $959 / T, down US $31 / T or 3.13% month on month on August 13.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of delta mutant virus has led to a bearish market on the demand recovery process. In addition, official data show that the oil refining output and economic activity of major emerging market countries have slowed down, the market pessimism has increased, and the international oil price has continued to decline this week. On August 13, Brent fell $5.41 / barrel, or 7.66%; WTI fell $6.12/barrel, or 8.94%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell continuously this week. On August 20, the price of sample enterprises was 9625 yuan / ton, down 4.17% from last week and up 65.87% from the same period last year. The fundamentals of styrene market have not changed much this week, supply has increased and demand has rebounded, but the overall situation is still weak, and the price trend is guided by crude oil.

Aniline: due to the impact of the epidemic, the shipment of enterprises in East China is blocked, but the downstream demand is good, and the market bullish mentality is good. The inventory of aniline factories in North China was low, enterprises were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the offer continued to rise. On August 20, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10900-11100 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 11100-11200 yuan / ton, up 4.78% from last week.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the delta virus is spreading, the market is worried about limited demand, and the international oil price is still likely to fall. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the price of pure benzene went down, and the profit space of downstream products rebounded. Downstream main product styrene: at present, there is no significant change in the supply and demand of styrene, and the price trend is guided by crude oil.

The cost side is still likely to fall, and the support for pure benzene is weak; The downstream profit space is expanded, the operating rate is improved, and new units are expected to be put into operation in the downstream, and the demand for pure benzene is better in the near future. Overall, near the end of the month delivery, the pure benzene market may pick up, but crude oil may drag down the price. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the price trend of acetic acid fell first and then rose this week. On August 20, the price of acetic acid was 6050.00 yuan / ton, down 0.55% compared with the price of 6083.33 yuan / ton on August 14, an increase of 1.11% compared with the beginning of the month. As of August 20, the market price of acetic acid in various regions in China rose and fell as follows:

region August 14th August 20th Price rise and fall

East China 5950-6600 yuan / ton 5850-6600 yuan / ton – one hundred

South China 5900-5950 yuan / ton 5850-5900 yuan / ton – fifty

North China 5750-6050 yuan / ton 5950-6100 yuan / ton 50/200

Shandong region 6000-6050 yuan / ton 5900-6000 yuan / ton – 50/-100

Jiangsu region 5950-6050 yuan / ton 5850-6000 yuan / ton – 50/-100

Zhejiang region 6000-6100 yuan / ton 5900-6000 yuan / ton – one hundred

Hebei region 6000-6050 yuan / ton 6050-6100 yuan / ton fifty

This week, the domestic acetic acid was weak and sorted out, with differentiated operation in various regions. Individual acetic acid enterprises in North China, Shandong and Hebei were overhauled. The market supply was tight, the enterprise quotation was high, the downstream demand was rational, and the overall production and sales of the market were relatively stable; In South China, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, the market inventory is sufficient, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is general, the purchase is rational, the market trading is insufficient, and the market is weak.

In the downstream, the market situation of vinyl acetate is mainly wait-and-see consolidation, and butyl acetate is relatively strong. Supported by the rising price of raw material n-butanol, the market increases in the week, the downstream reflection is weak, and the future market is stalemate consolidation; The market of ethyl acetate was weak. The quotation fell first and then rose within the week, with an overall decline of 0.89%. The market trading was general, the downstream follow-up was not smooth, and the market fluctuated in the later stage.

Business analysts believe that the downstream demand in various regions in China is rational and just needs to follow up. In terms of market supply, the enterprise has no other device maintenance plan for the time being, the market supply is relatively stable, and the production and sales of the enterprise are basically running smoothly. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, it is expected to wait and see the consolidation and operation of the future market and pay attention to the market transaction.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (August 23): 2750.00 yuan / ton

On August 23, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on August 20, with a year-on-year increase of 57.74%. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have increased slightly recently, with strong cost support. From the perspective of demand: the transaction is mainly just needed, the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal; The operation of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is not high, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them are used with mining and followed up with a proper amount of bargain hunting. From the perspective of supply: urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, and the early maintenance enterprises have gradually resumed production, with a daily output of about 155000 tons, which has increased. However, the follow-up of new orders is not smooth, and the shipping pressure increases. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is slow.

In the future, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is expected to decline slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2700 yuan / ton.

The price was raised during the week. At present, the ex factory price in East China, Northeast China and North China is 7800 yuan / ton, that in Central China is 7850 yuan / ton, and that in South China is 7700 yuan / ton.

The raw material ethylene is expected to weaken. As of today, the CIF price in Northeast Asia is US $930 / T and that in Southeast Asia is US $965 / T, which is the same as that of the previous trading day. The quotation of domestic Luxi Chemical ethylene is 7800 yuan / T and that of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene is 7300 yuan / T. In the early stage, ethylene oxide ushered in a rising market due to the favorable impact of plant shutdown. However, with the gradual completion of maintenance of the plant, the shortage of supply has eased, and the negative factors have gradually become prominent. The downstream monomer manufacturers mainly sell goods at a profit margin. The ethylene oxide price rise this time, the monomer manufacturers did not follow up, and the price transmission was not smooth. It can be seen that the main reason for the pressure on the market is still the high cost and weak demand faced by the downstream.

Fundamentals are weak, and the market outlook is cautious.

The domestic BDO market continued its downward trend. With the restart of the device, the positive support of the market weakened. According to the sample data monitored by the business society, from August 12 to August 19, the domestic BDO market price fell from 29000 yuan / ton to 28125 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 3.02% in the week, a month on month increase of 41.33% and a year-on-year increase of 232.45%. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot apron in East China is around 29200-29800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation of spot apron in South China is 29500-30000 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply, the maintenance device is restarted in large quantities, and the favorable support at the supply end is weakened; The transmission of high cost pressure to the terminal is blocked, the middle and lower reaches enter the market and watch carefully, and the atmosphere of spot negotiation is light.

In terms of devices, Xinjiang Xinye stopped for maintenance on July 25 and is expected to restart from August 18 to 20; Chongqing Jianfeng replaced the catalyst on August 25; Extend the oil storage and maintenance plan in September, which is expected to last for 2 months; Great wall energy, Cathay Pacific, black cat and Yizheng Dalian are scheduled for maintenance in September.

In the future, the maintenance devices have been restarted one after another. At present, the overall demand of the downstream is weak, mainly contract trading, and the enthusiasm for spot procurement is not high. BDO analysts of business agency expect that the domestic BDO market will enter the consolidation stage.