1、 Price trend
According to the data in the bulk list of business society, the price of pure benzene fell continuously this week. On August 15, the price of pure benzene was 7450-7600 yuan / ton (average price 7540 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (August 22), the price of pure benzene was 7250-7550 yuan / ton (average price 7480 yuan / ton). The average price decreased by 60 yuan / ton, or 0.8%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 119.35%.
2、 Analysis and review
Affected by the epidemic situation in the early stage, the import ship was delayed, and the delivery near the end of the month, the domestic purchase was more active, and the negotiation of pure benzene was better. However, during the week, crude oil fell deeply, coupled with the continuous decline of styrene, the fundamental support weakened, pure benzene was under pressure, and the price fell.
In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market on Friday (August 20) was US $935 / ton, down US $44 / ton, or 4.49%, compared with August 13; The reference import price in East China was US $959 / T, down US $31 / T or 3.13% month on month on August 13.
In terms of crude oil, the spread of delta mutant virus has led to a bearish market on the demand recovery process. In addition, official data show that the oil refining output and economic activity of major emerging market countries have slowed down, the market pessimism has increased, and the international oil price has continued to decline this week. On August 13, Brent fell $5.41 / barrel, or 7.66%; WTI fell $6.12/barrel, or 8.94%.
Downstream: styrene: styrene fell continuously this week. On August 20, the price of sample enterprises was 9625 yuan / ton, down 4.17% from last week and up 65.87% from the same period last year. The fundamentals of styrene market have not changed much this week, supply has increased and demand has rebounded, but the overall situation is still weak, and the price trend is guided by crude oil.
Aniline: due to the impact of the epidemic, the shipment of enterprises in East China is blocked, but the downstream demand is good, and the market bullish mentality is good. The inventory of aniline factories in North China was low, enterprises were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the offer continued to rise. On August 20, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10900-11100 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 11100-11200 yuan / ton, up 4.78% from last week.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the delta virus is spreading, the market is worried about limited demand, and the international oil price is still likely to fall. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.
Downstream: the price of pure benzene went down, and the profit space of downstream products rebounded. Downstream main product styrene: at present, there is no significant change in the supply and demand of styrene, and the price trend is guided by crude oil.
The cost side is still likely to fall, and the support for pure benzene is weak; The downstream profit space is expanded, the operating rate is improved, and new units are expected to be put into operation in the downstream, and the demand for pure benzene is better in the near future. Overall, near the end of the month delivery, the pure benzene market may pick up, but crude oil may drag down the price. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.
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