According to the monitoring data of business society, as of June 30, the average factory price reference of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 6866 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 1200 yuan / T, or 21.18% compared with the price of June 1, 2021 (reference price: 5666 yuan / ton).

From the business data monitoring chart, it can be seen that in June, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate in China has risen greatly. The increase in the month was over 21%. Since the early June, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market saw the first significant increase in the month, up 800-1000 yuan / ton. The main support for the upward market is that the demand for DMC in Anhui Province is reduced, the market supply is reduced, and the spot is tight. The price of dimethyl carbonate keeps rising. As of June 15, the average factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate rose to 6933 yuan / T, up more than 22% compared with the beginning of June.

In the middle of June, the overall plant operating rate was still low, the supply of dimethyl carbonate continued to be tight, and the demand side was good, the investment atmosphere was moderate, and the price of dimethyl carbonate continued to run at a high level.

In late June, under the high level, the enthusiasm of inquiry downstream of DMC was weakened, while the market of dimethyl carbonate was weak and declined slightly, but the supply side pressure was still small. Therefore, the overall market maintained stable operation after a small reduction. As of June 30, according to the monitoring of business agency data, the average factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was 6866 yuan / ton, compared with that in early June, The average price rose 1200 yuan / ton, up 21.18% in the month.

In the upstream of propylene oxide, the market of propylene oxide has been steadily rising since late June, and the price of propylene oxide has been stable on the 30th. Due to the influence of logistics and commencement policies, the supply of epichlorohydrin has decreased in recent years, with the market mainly on the watch. As of 30 days, the mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin market in Shandong Province is around 14000-14100 yuan / ton, while the mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin market in East China is about 14200-14400 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream DME, it can be seen from the trend chart that the trend of DME in June can be divided into two stages. In the early June, the domestic DME market fell in the first place, and the price was continuously lowered, and the market was improved significantly until the end of June. The first stage is dominated by market profit and vacancy. First, the weak terminal demand is the main factor leading to price reduction. Henan market is mostly affected by the rectification of gas in the province. The downstream wait-and-see mentality is obvious, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the purchasing on demand is maintained, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. Secondly, the trend of methanol market is weak, and the cost drop has brought obvious negative effect on the market. Henan manufacturers have continuously lowered the factory price, and actively shipped. Shandong and Hebei market are affected by Henan, the main production area, followed by the downward adjustment.

The second stage is the last week at the end of the month. The DME market has been significantly positive since the beginning of July 27, with the price continuously high, with the increase of 4.56% on the 4th day. At the end of the month, due to the short-term parking and maintenance of the main manufacturers, the supply reduction has brought obvious boost to the market. The mentality of the manufacturers is strong, the willingness to push up is strong, and the cost of methanol is stable at the end of the month, which is favorable for the market mentality. Some downstream buyers will buy goods under the mentality of rising, and the market transaction atmosphere has improved compared with the previous period, and the DME market rebounds.

Analysis of the trend of the post market

At present, the overall market of dimethyl carbonate is weak, and the off-season of the market is going to occur. At the end of the month, the plant in Anhui will resume and the market supply will continue to resume. Therefore, the analysts of business society think that domestic DMC market has a downward risk in the short term.

1、 Chart of the price trend of nitric acid Market

Price curve of nitric acid

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in domestic areas at the beginning of this week is 2316 yuan / ton, and the average price at weekends is 2350 yuan / ton, up 1.44%.

2、 Market analysis

On July 1, Anhui Jinhe quoted about 2350 yuan / ton, which was the same as the last one; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd., the price of concentrated nitric acid is 2200 yuan / ton, and that of dilute nitric acid is 1150 yuan / ton, and the price of concentrated nitric acid is the same as that of the last time; Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid quoted 2500 yuan / ton, the price was up 100 yuan / ton compared with the last time; Anhui Audley concentrated nitric acid quoted 2350 yuan / ton, which was 50 yuan / ton higher than the previous one. Partial source of nitric acid is tight, and shipment is acceptable. The manufacturer raises the quotation. In some areas, the nitrate is generally transported, and the manufacturer’s quotation is stable.

The production price of domestic liquid ammonia in Shandong Province rose 0.38% this week. Aniline downstream, after the price of aniline rose this week, stabilized. On June 25, the price of Shandong Province was 10000-10500 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10000-10300 yuan / ton, and on July 2, the price in Shandong is 10200-10300 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10300-10500 yuan / ton, with the average price up 0.65% compared with last week. The downstream TDI market price in East China is temporarily stable this week.

3、 Future forecast

The demand for nitric acid market is still acceptable. The analyst of nitric acid in business agency expects that nitric acid will continue to be stronger.

According to the data of the business club, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 52000 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021. As of June 30, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 89666.67 yuan / ton, up 72.44% in half a year. On June 30, the mainstream quotation of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market was 87000 ~ 92000 yuan / ton.

In the first quarter, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market rose steadily, with a quarterly increase of 44.23%. In the first quarter, the price of upstream lithium carbonate continued to rise, the cost support continued to strengthen, and the demand of downstream increased, which accelerated the consumption of low price inventory in the market. The market supply and demand pattern gradually improved, and the support market steadily went up. With the tight spot supply in the market, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry increased, the business mentality was firm, and the market price atmosphere was strong, Lithium hydroxide rose sharply in the first quarter and then kept stable at a high level.

In the second quarter, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market continued to rise, with a quarterly increase of 19.56%. In April, the market supply and demand side support performance is stable, the market is difficult to find low-cost sources, and enterprises mainly deliver early orders. In May, the upstream spodumene was tight with high prices, and the cost was supported to a certain extent. In addition, the tight spot supply led to the upward market driven by the incremental demand. In June, the supply and demand side had strong support, the market favorable supporting factors continued, and the market was strong.

Upstream lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate Market in the first half of 2021 rose broadly. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on June 30 was 86600 yuan / ton, up 73.20% compared with the price at the beginning of the year. On June 30, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90400 yuan / ton, up 65.57% compared with the price at the beginning of the year.

Analysts of lithium hydroxide from business news agency believe that in July, the support of market supply and demand still exists. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market will mainly run at a high level, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average price of domestic melamine enterprises was 9383.33 yuan / ton on April 1, 2021, and the average price of domestic melamine enterprises was 10733.33 yuan / ton by June 30, with an increase of 14.39% in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the lowest price was 9066.67 yuan / ton on June 1, and the highest price was 15233.33 yuan / ton on May 8, with the maximum amplitude of 68.01%.

The melamine market rose strongly in April, with the price breaking through 10000 yuan and rising all the way. In early May, the price continued to rise, reaching a new high. In the first half of April, the manufacturers had more orders to send and the spot supply was tight. In the second half of April, the cost support rose and the demand side exports were better, which were the main factors supporting the rise of melamine market. In the first ten days of May, the export market still performed well. Supported by the orders waiting to be issued in the early stage, the tense situation of spot supply continued, and the quotation of enterprises continued to rise, reaching a new high. On May 8, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 15233.33 yuan / ton, up 200.66% year on year.

In the middle and late May, the price of melamine fell from high pressure, and the decline started. The undertaking capacity of downstream enterprises continued to decrease, and the follow-up of new domestic trade orders was insufficient. In addition, the melamine operation rate was high, and the focus of market negotiation continued to decline. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the lower reaches mainly stayed on the sidelines, and the downturn continued. After the price fell to the lowest point in the second quarter, the price stopped falling and rebounded in early June, Strong cost support, coupled with the improvement of downstream demand to support the market price rise, melamine market rose steadily in June, with an increase of 18.38%.

For upstream urea, the urea market in Shandong rose in the second quarter. As of June 30, the average price quoted by enterprises was 2800 yuan / ton, up 29.03% compared with April 1 (2170 yuan / ton). In July, the price of urea was temporarily stable.

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that in July, the price of upstream urea is temporarily stable, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The market performance is general, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the price of melamine will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance of upstream and downstream.

According to the data monitored by the business society (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on June 30, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 9087.5 yuan / ton, down 1.64% from 9150 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 43.14% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the price trend of PVC market as a whole showed a downward trend, and there was a rebound operation near the end of the month, but the center of gravity still moved down, and the market was relatively volatile. In June, the maintenance of PVC devices was not much, and the market supply was increased. In June and July, the PVC market entered the off-season, with the start-up load of downstream enterprises reduced, the demand for PVC decreased, and the external market weakened. The PVC market was in a weak situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, resulting in the gradual decline of prices, and the delivery of PVC enterprises was not optimistic, There is more room for negotiation, and the attitude of business owners is more bearish. However, the price of raw material calcium carbide rises, supporting PVC price is not easy to fall, so the monthly decline is not big.

At present, the downstream PVC products industry starts generally in the off-season. In addition to the power rationing in some areas in June and the strict safety inspection during July 1, the start-up load continues to drop. The profile, pipe and other products industry maintains at the medium level, while the membrane, wire and cable enterprises start fairly well, about 80% or 90%. On the whole, the start-up load drop in the off-season is the general trend, As a result, the purchase mood of PVC is not high, and only just need to take the goods, the transaction atmosphere turns light.

In terms of spot price, the main quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 8850-9100 yuan / ton. Pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou area is 9050-9180 yuan / ton; The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou area is 9020-9150 yuan / ton,; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 9080-9170 yuan / ton; Local markets were stable and down.

In terms of futures, futures prices rebounded many times and then fell back in June, with obvious rebound in the middle and the end of the month. However, the spot market was cautious in following the rise, and the price adjustment of enterprises was not large enough to boost the market. July 1 v2109 contract opening price: 8695, the highest price: 8745, the lowest price: 8650, position: 405181, settlement price: 8695, yesterday settlement: 8710, down 15.

region technology 7 / 1 (yuan / ton) 6 / 1 (yuan / ton) Up and down remarks

East China Calcium carbide process 9030-9010 9220-9330 – 190/-320 Delivery

south China Calcium carbide process 9080-9150 9180-9300 – 100/-150 Delivery

North China Calcium carbide process 8930-9010 9130-9270 – 200/-260 To

southwest Calcium carbide process 8950-9100 9050-9200 – 100/-100 To

On June 30, international crude oil prices rose. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $73.47/barrel, up 0.49 US dollars or 0.7%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 74.62 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.34 U.S. dollars or 0.5%. On Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recorded a drop in crude oil storage last week, and now it has dropped for six consecutive weeks; And the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported that this year’s oil supply situation is tight.

Ethylene, June 30, European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted 1219-1230 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted 1069-1080 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton. On June 30, the US ethylene market quoted a price of 660-673 US dollars / ton, up 45 US dollars / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market rose, and the demand was good. On June 30, the price of ethylene in Asia was 908-914 US dollars / ton in Northeast Asia and 873-879 US dollars / ton in Southeast Asia. Recently, the price of ethylene in Asia is mainly rising. Affected by the price rise of upstream crude oil, ethylene market may rise in the later stage.

On July 1, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4600.00, up 10.4% compared with that on June 1 (4166.67). The price of blue charcoal in the upstream rose slightly, with better cost support. The PVC market in the downstream fell slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened. Calcium carbide fell slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts from business news agency believe that PVC market supply increased and demand weakened in June. With the support of cost and inventory, futures prices rebounded many times, while spot market price adjustment was not large, enterprise shipment was not optimistic, and transaction atmosphere became weak. In July, the influence of off-season factors remains, the contradiction between supply and demand may be further obvious, and the PVC market may continue to weaken, with the focus moving down.