1、 Price quotation

According to the data of business news agency, the cotton market fluctuated downward in May, with 15897 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15760 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 0.86% and up 33.38% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic: at the beginning of this month, the news of additional quota issuance came to the ground on the evening of April 30. The amount of cotton import sliding allowance tax quota issued this time is 700000 tons, all of which are non-state trade quotas. The news will help the textile and garment foreign trade companies to receive orders, reduce the cost of raw material procurement, and improve the competitiveness of products. The cotton market will rise accordingly. In the middle of the month, the executive meeting of the State Council required that “effectively deal with the rapid rise of commodity prices and its associated effects”, and the exchanges implemented a number of measures, such as increasing the margin ratio of multiple futures trading, to ensure the smooth operation of the market. The domestic cotton price fell with the rise of the commodity market, and the market remained weak at the end of the month.

In April, China’s cotton imports were 230000 tons, an increase of 92% over the same period last year. In the year of 20 / 21, China’s total imports were 2.17 million tons, an increase of 90% over the same period last year. At the end of April, the total turnover inventory of cotton in China was about 3229700 tons, with a month on month decrease of 446300 tons, which was slightly larger than that of last month and lower than 210300 tons in the same period of last year.

International: U.S. inflation data soared to a 12 year high, adding up to the Palestine Israel conflict, which led to the fall of oil prices and the improvement of weather in Texas, which dragged down the international cotton price to fall significantly. 7 international cotton price index (SM) 98.76 cents / pound; On the 28th, the international cotton price index (SM) was 94.84 cents / pound, down 3.92 cents / pound; On the 7th, the international cotton price index (m) was 94.98 cents / pound, while on the 28th, the international cotton price index (m) was 91.47 cents / pound, down 3.51 cents / pound. ICAC’s global production and demand forecast in May is positive. In the year of 20 / 21, the global consumption is 25 million tons, the output is expected to be 24.6 million tons, and the final inventory is 22.14 million tons.

Futures: on May 6, the settlement price of zhengmian main contract 2109 was 15800 yuan / ton, while on May 31, the settlement price of zhengmian main contract was 15430 yuan / ton, down 370 yuan / ton.

3、 Downstream industry chain

Recently, the cotton futures market fell, the market wait-and-see mood increased, the current cotton yarn enterprises are still in a low inventory state, strong price will. With the arrival of the off-season of cotton consumption in summer, the willingness of traders and ginners to ship increased, the import of cotton yarn increased, and the orders of downstream textile enterprises were general. The atmosphere of grey cloth market was relatively light in the early stage, and some orders were “green and yellow”. The cotton textile factories were short of large orders and stable orders, and they paid attention to the orders of textile enterprises in the later stage. According to statistics, as of May 28, yarn inventory of textile enterprises in major regions of the country was 10.2 days, down 0.6 days from last week, and down 5.6% month on month. The data showed that the prosperity index of China’s cotton textile industry in April was 49.20, which was lower than that in March. The raw material inventory index in April was 48.67, down 1.52 from March.

With the recovery of the epidemic situation and orders, it can support the cotton to walk out of the volatile rising market, and the early cotton production reduction expectation is not reflected in the cotton futures market. In the short term, the cotton price will maintain a weak shock situation under the lack of positive support. In the long term, the orders from Europe, the United States and Japan are likely to overflow again in the second and third quarters, and the cotton may form a good situation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda has been mainly stable in the near future. At present, the average price in the domestic market is 1583.33 yuan / ton. On May 30, the commodity index of baking soda was 105.09, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.63% from 121.68 (2020-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.06% from 88.27, the lowest point on December 22, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now

2、 Market analysis

According to the news agency, the price of sodium bicarbonate is stable for the time being, and the shipment in the downstream market is acceptable. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan Province is about 1550-1650 yuan, and the downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be stable in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1550-1650 yuan / ton, which is the mainstream price in the market, and the downstream demand is acceptable.

In terms of raw materials: according to the monitoring data of the business community, soda ash in North China has been in stable operation temporarily. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. The downstream glass mainly purchases soda ash on demand. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda ash is mainly consolidated. Soda ash in East China is in stable operation for the time being. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1850 yuan / ton, and the downstream glass mainly purchases soda ash on demand. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda ash is mainly consolidated.

Demand side: downstream medicine, textile and food mainly purchase sodium bicarbonate on demand, and the price of sodium bicarbonate has been consolidated recently. Business analysts think: domestic soda price is mainly stable and small move. The overall trading atmosphere of soda ash is acceptable, and the enterprises are mainly active in shipping. The rising price of glass has a favorable support for soda, but soda is still mainly purchased on demand. In the downstream, medicine, textile and food mainly purchase baking soda on demand. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda may still maintain a narrow consolidation trend in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the price of caustic soda went up. At the beginning of the week, the average price of Shandong market was about 470 yuan / ton. At the end of the week, the average price of the market was 490 yuan / ton, up 4.26%, and down 0.51% compared with the same period last year. On May 27, the commodity index of caustic soda was 69.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.44% from 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 6.62% from 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

The price of caustic soda went up this week. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong Province is 460-490 yuan / ton, and the downstream delivery is acceptable. It is expected that caustic soda will still operate in a small fluctuation in the future. In Hebei area, the market of caustic soda fluctuates mainly in a narrow range. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 470-610 yuan / ton, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future.

Downstream: due to the low alumina caustic soda inventory in the downstream this week, there was a good demand for caustic soda, which had a positive impact on the market. The delivery of caustic soda was smoother than before, and the price went up.

According to the price monitoring of business community, in the 20th week (5.17-5.21) of 2021, there were 0 kinds of commodities rising, 2 kinds of commodities falling, and 3 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 0.35%) and PVC (- 0.14%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 0.1%.

Business analysts believe that recently, due to the inventory demand of alumina enterprises in Shandong, this week’s demand for caustic soda is acceptable. But now the overall inventory of caustic soda enterprises is sufficient, and other areas mainly wait and see. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to be consolidated and operated in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

Bisphenol a market in East China continued to decline this week, with a significant decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market negotiation near the weekend was close to 20000 yuan / ton, with a decline of more than 20% this week. The overall performance of bisphenol a market this week was extremely poor. Although the shippers continued to reduce their offers, there were few market inquiries, and the daily market low prices emerged one after another. Rumors of low prices continued to affect the market mentality. In the middle of the week, Changchun chemical reduced 5000 yuan / ton and implemented 22000 yuan / ton, which increased the negative factors. Transaction situation is even worse, the mentality is seriously frustrated, short-term hard to say good.

From the perspective of raw material side, the phenol market was very stable this week, reaching 9350-9400 yuan / ton. The Hong Kong Inventory declined towards the weekend. Although the cargo holders intended to push up the market, the participation in the terminal market was not high, the wait-and-see sentiment increased, and the closing market was weak at the weekend. This week, the acetone market showed an obvious decline. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the acetone factory in East China fell by 15.64%, while the market situation fell by 6.6%. Therefore, the factory adjustment range this week was relatively large, and the market continued the previous decline trend. The offer rebounded slightly near the weekend, and the negotiation range was 5500-5700 yuan / ton.

Acetone market trend in East China

Trend of phenol Market in China

The downstream liquid epoxy resin continued to be in the doldrums, and the weakness was obvious this week. The East China liquid epoxy resin negotiation dropped to 28000-29000 yuan / ton, and the solid epoxy resin negotiation reached 25500 yuan / ton. The decline of epoxy resin market was mainly affected by the overall decline of dual raw materials. The decline of bisphenol A was obvious, the cost support was unfavorable, and the manufacturers were under great pressure to ship, The short-term decline is limited. New orders at the terminal are mostly discussed in a single way, while the factory suspends the offer and mainly discusses the actual orders. The short-term epoxy resin industry is difficult to say good, the market transaction surface is insufficient.

In the view of the business community, on the one hand, due to the depressed terminal demand market, the bearish attitude of the cargo holders is serious. Under the influence of the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the terminal’s wait-and-see mood for raw materials increases. On the other hand, the cost side fell, and after the name of the bulk market, the chemical industry as a whole showed a downward trend, the bad news under the industrial chain was diffuse, and the market mentality was seriously frustrated. The business community expected that the short-term bisphenol a market would continue to decline, and the offer of East China market was about 20000 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the domestic spandex market price showed a slight upward trend since the middle and early May. As of May 27, the average price of 40d specification was 69400 yuan / ton, which was 2.66% higher than that of May 13, with a year-on-year increase of 117.55%. Downstream milk silk, Teflon and other elastic fabrics demand is strong, the market supply continues to be tight, supporting its price up, spandex manufacturers started to maintain a high level of about 90%, some manufacturers said that the inventory is low, new orders are not accepted, mainly for old customers.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 84000-88000 74000-76000 65000-68000

Shandong 86000-89000 75000-77000 65000-68000

Fujian 86000-89000 75000-77000 64000-70000

Jiangsu Province 84000-88000 74000-76000 63000-68000

The supporting function of cost side is general. The raw material PTMEG market has a narrow profit margin, the cost side BDO trend continues to decline, the cost side is bad, and the quotation has a narrow decline. The 1800 molecular weight supply of mainstream factories offers around 41500 yuan / ton, the actual single negotiation reference is 40000-41500 yuan / ton, the industry starts at 780%, and the stable operation is maintained. The pure MDI declined in a narrow range. The market negotiation was around 19600 yuan / ton of telegraphic transfer, which was 200 yuan / ton lower than that in mid May. The overall wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and 80% of the industry started to run at a high level.

Downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving market gradually entered the off-season, new orders are not many, part of the round machine factory production inventory. The off-season market and raw material prices remain high, the gross profit of the industry is constantly compressed, the enthusiasm of production of Da Yuan machine factory is not high, and the start-up rate of most Da Yuan machine factories is 50-60%, maintaining weak stability. Haining area warp knitting factory overall order decline, part of the mainstream factory receivables pressure is big, forced to reduce the operating rate, started around 680%.

Business analysts believe that although the current high start spandex manufacturers, but manufacturers supply is still tight, inventory levels decreased, some manufacturers said that the limited discharge, rising intention is strong. In addition, statistics show that the domestic spandex production capacity is 870000 tons, the monthly output is 67000 tons, a small amount of imports (about 2000-3000 tons of imports per month), a small amount of exports (about 6000-8000 tons of exports per month), and the export quantity is higher than the import quantity, which has a good import and export adjustment mechanism. It is expected that this mechanism will also play a certain role in the price maintenance of spandex in the future. But the current cost side support is insufficient, downstream market on-demand procurement, careful wait-and-see, forming a certain negative. Overall, it is expected that the price of spandex will continue to run at a high level in the short term.