Commodity index: the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 95.14 on May 25, up 0.18 points from yesterday, down 12.72% from 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 12.83% from 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

The monitoring found that from May 2021 to now, the market of China’s (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) solid polyaluminum chloride showed a fluctuating upward trend: on the 1st, the domestic mainstream price was 1720 yuan / ton, on the 25th, the mainstream price was 1760 yuan / ton, with an increase rate of 2.33%. Among them, the main influencing factor is the rise of raw material prices.

Industrial chain: upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: business data show that since May, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China has shown a slight upward trend. On the 1st, the mainstream market quotation was about 226.67 yuan / ton. On the 17th, the price of hydrochloric acid mixture in Shandong increased by 6.66 yuan / ton, or 2.94%. After that, the price was temporarily stable. The market of liquid chlorine in the upper reaches is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid. The market of silica and ammonium chloride in the lower reaches is high, which brings certain benefits to the price of hydrochloric acid. At the same time, the recent increase in enterprise maintenance, hydrochloric acid supply is tight, downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. The by-product acid is still impacting the market, and the pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is greater. Recently, the market price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong may rise slightly, and the average price is about 240 yuan / ton. Calcium powder: according to the manufacturers in the main production area, the price of polyaluminum chloride was generally increased this month due to the rising prices of hydrochloric acid and calcium powder.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. During the Spring Festival in February, Shandong’s civil gas market was phased. The trend before and after the festival was different. Before the festival, the market was mainly weak, and after the festival, the market took a short roller coaster. In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend, and the civil gas market in Shandong rose significantly; However, in the middle of March, it began to fall continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market did not continue; From the end of March, the LPG market was dominated by favorable factors and entered the upward channel again. In April, the LPG civil market continued to rise, and the price kept rising, especially after the Qingming Festival holiday; However, in late April, the price of liquefied petroleum gas for civilian use showed a “slide” market, and remained stable after a 5-6% drop. Since May, the LPG market has experienced twists and turns, with an overall upward trend; According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on the 5th was 4066.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on the 25th was 4223.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 156.66 yuan / ton. In fact, during the period, the highest price was 4306.67 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 4150 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude was 3.64%.

Downstream demand: the downstream demand of polyaluminum chloride still has little change. The “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” proposed by the two sessions of this year have stricter and long-term sustainability requirements on the environmental protection of production enterprises in various industries. Chemical enterprises have undergone strict environmental inspection, many industries have stopped production from time to time for rectification, and many enterprises need rectification. There should be a certain demand for environmental protection products in terms of environmental protection. Water treatment products are limited due to their application, Compared with atmospheric emissions, the demand for purification products may be slightly lower. According to a number of enterprises, this year’s demand has been average, strict environmental inspection, repeated production stoppage and rectification, enterprises are under great pressure, and small enterprises may be eliminated. So far this month, the production is normal, the inventory is high, and the demand has not changed effectively.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, in the future, under the current situation of general demand and sufficient inventory, the price change of polyaluminum chloride mainly depends on the cost of raw materials. Due to maintenance and other reasons, the supply of raw material manufacturers is tight, and the price has increased, so the subsequent small rise of polyaluminum chloride is still possible.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of isooctanol in Shandong Province dropped from 16700.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 14533.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 12.97%, up 123.59% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of isooctanol fell sharply this week, with the isooctanol commodity index at 106.86 on May 21.

The maintenance was basically completed and the supply began to increase

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong’s mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers fell this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation of ISO octanol this weekend was 14500 yuan / ton, down 2200 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of the week; Lihuayi quoted 14300 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, down 2300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 14800 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this week, down 2000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. The maintenance of the ISO octanol plant was completed and the production began to resume. The overall operating rate of the ISO octanol industry increased, and the spot supply of ISO octanol increased.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of ISO octanol fell sharply this week. The quoted price dropped from 8334.82 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8034.82 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 3.60%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.13%. The price of raw materials in the upstream market fell sharply, which was affected by the supply and demand side and had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

Isooctanol downstream market, this week DOP factory prices fell slightly. DOP quotation fell from 13575.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13250.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 2.39%, up 88.39% year on year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for octanol procurement was general, and the demand for isooctanol was general.

Oversupply and bearish outlook

In late May, the market trend of isooctanol in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. On the whole, the production of ISO octanol plant has started recently, and the supply has increased, but the downstream market is poor, the demand is general, and the supply exceeds the demand. As a result, isooctanol analysts from the business community believe that in late May, the domestic market for isooctanol may drop slightly.

Price trend

According to the data from the block list of business associations, the domestic PA66 market fell in the third week of May, and the spot prices of various brands generally decreased. As of May 24, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 40500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.58% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 113.16% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

In terms of upstream adipic acid, the market continued to top down in the early stage after May, and the spot price fell last week and then ran smoothly. At present, the starting level of the industry is on the high side, the inventory pressure of the manufacturers is great, and the price reduction is the main reason. With the market entering the off-season, the speed of goods delivery has decreased significantly. Under the increasing pressure of supply and weak demand, the price of adipic acid lost support and gradually declined. In the near future, the market is still in the cycle of destocking, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. It is expected that adipic acid may continue to adjust, so it is not ruled out that the range will continue to move down.

The raw material adipic acid was weak, the support of PA66 cost side was weakened, and the overall performance of PA66 market fell last week. The previous weak supply and demand pattern of PA66 industry has not improved, and it has lasted for nearly two months. Recently, the overall operating rate of domestic PA66 industry is still low, and some enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of the month. However, the market’s response to this favorable situation is weak. At present, the momentum of trading in the market is insufficient, and the merchants’ shipment follows the market and the negotiation space is increased. The demand of downstream factories continued to be weak, and they took the operation of buying on the low price and buying on the demand. Although the overall inventory of PA66 is not under pressure, the profit margin is compressed and the market atmosphere is not active.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: in the third week of May, the pattern of high cost pressure in the domestic PA66 market continued, and the profit space of aggregation enterprises and end users was seriously compressed. The atmosphere in the venue was cold and the situation of weak supply and demand continued. In the case of the downstream passive delivery, it is difficult to expect the demand side to make efforts. Under the favorable situation of production capacity loss, the resistance of on-site goods delivery increases instead of decreasing, and the actual price center of gravity under the game of supply and demand may have declined. PA66 market is expected to continue weak trend in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the domestic first class industrial grade potassium nitrate quotation at the beginning of the week was 4450.00 yuan / ton, and that of domestic first class industrial grade potassium nitrate was 4500.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 1.12%, and the current price rose 7.78% on a month basis, and the current price was up 5.57% year on year.

This week, the domestic market of potassium nitrate rose, the market supply was tight, most of which was concentrated in the hands of large traders, covering the market and sparing sales, and the overall supply was low. Downstream market purchases on demand, market trading atmosphere is still acceptable, potassium nitrate market continues to rise. According to statistics of business agency: this week, domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 4200-4800 yuan / ton (quotation is for reference only), and different prices are different according to the purchase situation.

Recently, the quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is at a high level: on May 21, the KCl equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. was in normal operation. The factory quotation is about 2400 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. On May 21, the sales price of potassium chloride of Anhui Badao Chemical Co., Ltd. was about 2650 yuan / ton, and the quotation was stable temporarily, and the actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. Recently, the potassium chloride market was in high consolidation, and port inventory continued to decrease, and the price remained high. Cost support is good, and it is favorable for the upward trend of potassium nitrate.

In recent years, the domestic potassium chloride market is in a state of stop sale. Large traders mainly cherish the sale, and the cost support is good. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will be mainly rising in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be seen（ The above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of business society. For reference only, please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices rose slightly this week, with spot copper quotation of 71971.67 yuan / ton as of the weekend, down 3.51% from 74591.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 24.19% higher than the beginning of the year, up 61.35% year on year. LME fell after the copper rush rose $10525 in March this week, closing at $9946, down 2.81% a week; Shanghai copper index was in high volatility at the beginning of this week, and it fell under pressure after the middle of the week, falling below 71840 yuan, closing at 72180 yuan, down 3.43% a week. The international copper index, which was closed this week, closed at 64130 yuan, down 3.68 per cent a week.

On the macro level, monetary policy may turn to the rebound of the dollar, the continuous decline of international oil prices drag down commodities and China will curb unreasonable rise in commodity prices, leading to a sharp correction in copper prices. On the supply side, commodity traders and miners Glencore plans to restart the operation of the mutanda cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo next year. Mutanda is the world’s largest cobalt mine, and it also produces a large amount of copper. The production of copper deposits of major copper enterprises in the world is planned to increase, and the expectation of loose copper supply in the long term has been raised. In terms of demand, high cost continues to squeeze the cable industry profits, and the downstream consumption peak season is not strong. It is expected that the short-term fluctuation of copper price will maintain a weak trend.