According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the week, the quotation of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4375.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the quotation of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4387.50 yuan / ton, up 0.29%. The current price increased by 2.46% month on month and 3.26% year on year.

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market rose, and the market supply was tight. Most of them were concentrated in the hands of large traders. They were reluctant to sell, and the overall turnover of the market was slow. The overall supply is at a low level, and the downstream market purchases on demand, while the potassium nitrate market continues to rise. According to the statistics of the business society, this week’s quotation of domestic potassium nitrate mainstream manufacturers is 4100-4600 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), which varies according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers is at a high level: on May 7, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is about 2400 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On May 7, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted about 2650 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. In recent years, the potassium chloride market was consolidated at a high level, the cost support was good, the supply of potassium imported from the port was limited, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream was acceptable, so potassium nitrate was given support.

Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market has maintained a stable trend, the new arrival of ports is limited, and the supply of goods continues to be tight. It is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will rise mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see（ The above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market fell sharply in April. The price of domestic praseodymium and neodymium rare earths dropped sharply, and the price of heavy rare earths also dropped sharply. The domestic rare earth market is no longer prosperous. According to the rare earth plate index of the business society, the rare earth index was 534 points on May 5, which was the same as yesterday, down 46.60% compared with the highest 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), Compared with the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015, it has increased by 97.05%（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the domestic rare earth prices continued to callback in April. Recently, the prices of the mainstream commodities in the rare earth market have declined, and the rare earth market has cooled down. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic mainstream products such as neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium alloy decreased significantly, but the prices of praseodymium oxide and metallic praseodymium rose against the trend. As of May 6, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 542500 yuan / ton, down 13.55% compared with the price at the beginning of April; The price of metal neodymium was 687500 yuan / ton, 12.70% lower than that in early April; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 537500 yuan / ton, 7.73% lower than that in early April; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 650000 yuan / ton, 9.09% lower than that in early April; The price of praseodymium oxide was 547500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4.78% in April; The price of praseodymium metal was 705000 yuan / ton, up 4.44% in April, and the domestic market trend of light rare earths dropped.

Recently, the rare earth market has been declining. According to the feedback of some enterprises, the overall trading volume has declined, and the downstream permanent magnet is mainly purchased on demand. However, in the early stage, the manufacturers are actively preparing goods, and the inventory in the yard has increased, which leads to the general low enthusiasm of the downstream replenishment. In this case, the prices of mainstream rare earth products have declined. Sales of new energy vehicles have slowed down and the rare earth industry has been affected. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to break the historical record of single month sales. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in March, the national automobile industry continued to maintain a good development trend, with production and sales reaching 2.462 million and 2.526 million respectively, with a month on month growth of 63.9% and 73.6%, and a year-on-year growth of 71.6% and 74.9%; The production, sales and export volume of new energy once again set a new record for the month. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand, the market price of light rare earth is falling, and the heavy rare earth market is cooling down accordingly.

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China dropped sharply. As of the 6th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.665 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 12.91% in April; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.645 million yuan / ton, down 12.42% in April, and that of dysprosium metal was 3.4 million yuan / ton, down 12.82% in April; The domestic price of terbium series dropped sharply, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 8.15 million yuan / ton and the price of metal terbium at 10.4 million yuan / ton. There are few transactions in the domestic rare earth market. The upstream, middle and downstream markets are mainly on the lookout. Traders tend to buy at a lower price, and the market price of heavy rare earth has dropped. However, Myanmar’s political situation is unstable, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, the import source has decreased significantly, the supply of heavy rare earth market in Myanmar is still slightly tight, but the downstream resistance is more serious, and the market price trend is declining.

Recently, the “notice on industrial energy conservation supervision in 2021″ stressed that enterprises in key industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metal smelting, petrochemical and chemical industry, building materials and so on should be comprehensively investigated, and special supervision on the implementation of mandatory energy consumption quota standards per unit product should be carried out, so as to finally achieve full coverage of energy conservation supervision of enterprises in key industries during the “14th five year plan”. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the market of rare earth products has been objective, but the lower reaches of the business purchase significantly, leading to a decline in market prices.

In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total amount control indicators increased significantly, which was related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining in 2021. In 2021, the total amount control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mines (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China were 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth) rare earth mines, The index of rock ore type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mining will continue to be controlled, the state policy is favorable, and the trend of some products in the rare earth market will be stable.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand has been supported. However, the domestic rare earth supply has started normally. In addition, the recent on-site transaction is not good and the purchase is not active. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, predicts that the market price of rare earth in the later period may continue to decline slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, on April 30, the domestic price of carbon black was 7600 yuan / ton, which fluctuated slightly. The price fluctuation range was 100-300 yuan / ton, and this month’s carbon black market was mainly stable.

2、 Market analysis

Market quotation

After the middle and late April, the domestic and export sales of tires were under pressure, and some tire enterprises successively lowered their plans to start or save, which was constrained by the weakening demand and the bad mood of carbon black market. However, the carbon black industry still had a strong price stability mentality under the support of high coal tar. Near the end of the month, the bidding price of new coal tar orders suddenly rose higher than the market expectation, and most carbon black companies were unprepared. Some carbon black companies said that they had no profit or even entered the loss situation. Under the pressure of cost, the rising price atmosphere of carbon black market continued to heat up. At present, carbon black companies have basically closed the offer and stopped the order receiving stage, waiting for a new round of price increase plan to be implemented.

Cost

At present, the price of coal tar is relatively high, the trend of downstream deep processing enterprises is not ideal, and many of them are on the verge of loss, the enthusiasm of industrial naphthalene downstream receiving is weak, the short-term expectation is still declining, the downstream demand is stable after the asphalt Festival, the price increase is gradually narrowing, the resistance of deep processing enterprises to accept high price coal tar is increasing, and the coal tar price continues to rise weakly, In the future, the support or performance of carbon black cost will be weakened. Deep processing enterprises may save the centralized maintenance plan from April to may, the demand for coal tar is reduced, the price of coal tar may save the risk of callback, and the cost support of carbon black price stabilization is weakened.

Downstream

This week, the tire industry started a slight decline, but the overall still high, higher than the same period; The semi steel tire market continued to be stable, the goods delivery of all steel tire was not smooth, and the inventory increased; Tricycle tire performance is flat, carbon black is purchased on demand. Other products, color masterbatch and other industries showed mediocre performance. In the early stage, they were on the lookout for the trend of carbon black, and the inventory of most enterprises was at the lowest limit. This week, the supply of carbon black market was delayed, especially before the festival, the market fluctuated, and some brand businesses scrambled for goods. In the early stage, they were on the lookout for the market, and the enterprises were slightly passive in preparing goods.

3、 Future forecast

According to the carbon black Data Engineer of chemical branch of business society, the short-term price of carbon black may rise steadily, and the lower demand expectation has a certain effect on the bottom of carbon black price, and the decline of carbon black price may be limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price trend of cryolite market in April first rose and then fell, and the price at the end of the month was the same as that at the beginning of the month. The average market price was 6400.00 yuan / ton, up 12.94% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the market of cryolite in Henan Province was mainly in consolidation. The demand of downstream aluminum industry increased and the price continued to rise, which was good for the cryolite market. Individual enterprises reflected that the supply was tight and the demand was stable, so the quotation of cryolite was increased. In terms of plant operation, the enterprises are normal, and the market inventory in Henan is sufficient. At present, the cryolite plant of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is normal; The production of cryolite in Jiaozuo mingminli Industrial Co., Ltd. is full load and normal; The cryolite plant of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. started steadily. As of the 30th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan Province was 6300-6500 yuan / ton, while that in Shandong Province was 6000-6300 yuan / ton. The manufacturers had a single negotiation, and the actual transaction price was flexible, mainly through negotiation.

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market price trend was stable, with an average price of 2661.11 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 2.84% from the beginning of the month. The domestic fluorite manufacturers are running stably, the mines and flotation units on the site are normal, the fluorite supply is slightly increased, the manufacturers reflect that the downstream orders are general, and the market is weak. The social inventory of the downstream aluminum industry is low, the support of aluminum consumption side is strong, and the market trend is strong.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the market of cryolite is in sufficient stock, and the shipment situation of manufacturers is general. There is only one more talk, and the demand is acceptable. The downstream aluminum industry is on the rise strongly, which has a good support for the cryolite market. It is expected that the cryolite market will rise slightly in the later period.

Commodity index: on April 29, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 92.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 14.93% compared with 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 9.99% compared with 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

Monitoring found that in April 2021, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in Henan Province of China showed a slight fluctuation, the amplitude was less than 1%, with little change. As shown in the figure, on April 1, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1710 yuan / ton, and on April 29, the mainstream price was 1717.14 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.42%. This month, water treatment plants in main production areas of Henan Province experienced intermittent production and production stoppage: due to the requirements of environmental protection policy, all water treatment plants in Gongyi region stopped production for rectification in mid March, and resumed production on a large scale in mid April. During this period, due to the temporary tension of some brands of some plants, the market of small and micro enterprises increased; After the resumption of production, the manufacturers had sufficient inventory, weak market demand, and the market fell with the trend, but there was not much up and down. On the whole, due to strict environmental protection inspection of manufacturers this month, the production enterprises that fail to meet the environmental protection standards stop production and resume production repeatedly. It is learned that some small enterprises have been unable to support the production because of stop production and demand. This situation will become more and more obvious with the strict environmental protection inspection; For manufacturers, it is urgent to improve the level of environmental protection technology.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, business news agency data showed that the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China in April was volatile and downward: on April 1, the mainstream market quotation was about 243.33 yuan / ton, and on April 29, it was about 226.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of about 6.85%. The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid; On the other hand, the monthly price fluctuation of silica in the lower reaches is no more than 1%, and the price of ammonium chloride is slightly down by 1.34% this month. The overall consolidation is high and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak. To sum up, hydrochloric acid is expected to fluctuate slightly in the near future.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In late April, the price of LPG for civilian use was “on the slide”. After the price fell by 5-6%, the price was basically stable. It is obvious from the trend chart that there is a big contrast with the rising market in early April. Although the price is down a part compared with the first ten days, the current price of Shandong civil gas is at a relatively high level, the atmosphere of downstream entering the market has warmed up, the manufacturers ship smoothly, and the inventory is mostly at a controllable level. There are still negative factors in the market, international crude oil is in a relatively weak position, and the market demand is expected to weaken due to the rising weather and temperature. Shandong civil gas market is expected to be stable in the short term.

Downstream demand: this month, enterprises are still going through strict inspection of environmental protection. They have stopped production and resumed production for many times. Some enterprises will stop production and rectify again near the end of the month. It is reported that the downstream demand is still average; At the same time, due to the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” proposed by the two sessions, the environmental protection requirements of production enterprises in various industries are more stringent and have long-term sustainability. Many enterprises need to stop production for rectification. In terms of environmental protection, there should be a certain demand for environmental protection products, but the demand for water treatment products may be worse. According to the reports of many enterprises, this year’s demand has been tepid, and they are constantly stopping production for rectification. As a result, enterprises are under great pressure, and some small enterprises may be eliminated.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, under the general trend of inflation caused by the global central bank’s water release, the prices of raw materials are rising in succession. Recently, the epidemic situation in some overseas areas is serious, and under the influence of multiple international factors such as Sino US relations, there may be periodic differentiation in various industries. As for the chemical industry, under the environmental protection policy requirements of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” of the two sessions in 2021, the chemical industry is bound to face strict rectification. With the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies, the environmental protection requirements will continue to be strict in the later stage, and the technical requirements of relevant enterprises will also be raised; Petrochemical enterprises are also facing strict rectification, and the technical threshold is constantly improving; The supply side can not avoid being affected by frequent stop production and rectification actions. In the case of large consumption of inventory, the price is expected to rise. To sum up, in the future, the price of polyaluminum chloride will be stable under the condition of general demand and sufficient inventory; The long-term sustainability of environmental protection inspection is bound to aggravate the survival of the fittest of production enterprises. Only by improving the technical level as soon as possible and meeting the environmental protection requirements as soon as possible can enterprises maintain long-term and effective development.