Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market rose in early September, and the spot prices of various brands increased greatly. As of September 9, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 41150 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.98% and a year-on-year increase of 107.30%.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the current domestic caprylic acid price continues to decline. Raw material pure benzene has entered the upward channel to slow down the decline of adipic acid. Domestic production lines are generally normal, with an operating rate of about 70%, but at present, the market demand is still weak, and the shipping resistance of enterprises is still large. In the later stage, pure benzene rebounded and the cost rose. It is expected to be transmitted to the downstream in the near future, and the price of adipic acid is expected to stop falling and rise. The shortage of adiponitrile broke out at the end of last month. Due to the high degree of dependence on imports, large international manufacturers claimed to lose production capacity due to force majeure in the medium and long term, the supply shortage of adiponitrile has not improved, and most of the domestic PA66 production load has been forced to decline.

In terms of raw materials, adipic acid continues to be weak, the high shortage of adiponitrile remains strong, and the cost side of PA66 is mainly supported by adiponitrile. In terms of industrial operating rate, affected by the shortage of adiponitrile, except Zhejiang Huafeng, the overall operating rate of polymerization enterprises is low. In terms of port supply, the recent arrival volume and inventory of major ports are both low, and the imported materials are difficult to supplement the domestic supply gap in the short term. In terms of the demand of terminal enterprises, the demand of the home appliance industry in the traditional peak season of “golden nine” began to rise, the force in other fields was limited, and the follow-up of goods preparation was slow. The seller’s mentality is strong, the offer is mainly high, and the inventory position is low, which induces some chasing trading.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the high spot price of PA66 rose this week. The supply shortage of adiponitrile at the cost side is prominent, the overall load of the polymerization plant is low due to the lack of raw materials, and the spot price rises with the benefit of Chen benduan. Demand has gradually entered the peak season, but buyers’ feedback on the rapidly rising supply of PA66 is general, and the wait-and-see atmosphere still exists. At present, the price range of PA66 is high and there is seasonal demand increment. It is expected that PA66 may operate at a high level in the near future.

Trade name: polybutadiene rubber BR9000

Latest price (August 10): 13760 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, as of September 8, the domestic price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 13760 yuan / ton, down 0.86% from the previous day; On August 8, the main suppliers of synthetic rubber lowered the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber by 300 ~ 400 yuan / ton; The price of butadiene rubber of CNPC Northeast sales company was reduced by 300 yuan / ton, the factory of Daqing and Jinzhou Shunding was 13400 yuan / ton, and the price of northeast warehouse was increased. Due to the recent sharp decline in raw butadiene and the reduction in the price of cis-polybutadiene suppliers, there are many market traders waiting and waiting temporarily, and some traders have reduced the quotation of cis-polybutadiene rubber, ranging from 50 to 400 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the decline in the price of raw butadiene in the natural rubber period and the reduction in the supply price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene will cause multiple negative blows to the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market. It is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will be weak in the near future.

Zinc price stopped falling and rebounded in September

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the decline stopped and picked up in the first week of September, and the zinc price rose for four consecutive trading days in September. As of September 7, the price of zinc was 22893.33 yuan / ton, up 0.51% from 22613.33 yuan / ton on September 1 and 22776.67 yuan / ton at the end of August (August 31). In September, the zinc price stopped falling and rebounded, and the zinc market recovered.

Zinc spot basis rose in September

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of September 7, 2021, the maximum 180 day main basis of zinc (Changjiang nonferrous metals) was 850.00, the minimum was 360.00, and the average was 624.27. The maximum value of 90 day main basis is 850.00, the minimum value is 510.00, and the average value is 708.10. In September, the current basis of zinc market fluctuated and rose.

Overview and Outlook

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business society, believes that the current basis of the zinc market fluctuated and rose in September, the spot price of the zinc market rose all the way, the futures price of the zinc market fluctuated and adjusted in September, and the rise of the futures zinc price was significantly lower than that of the spot zinc price. The rising power of the future zinc market is insufficient, and it is expected that the future zinc price will fluctuate and fall slightly.

1、 Price data

As of September 5, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 6702.50 yuan / ton, down 0.97% from 6768.25 yuan / ton on August 30. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 6500-6800 yuan / ton.

As of September 5, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 6515.00 yuan / ton, down 0.87% from 6572.50 yuan / ton on August 30. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 6300-6600 yuan / ton.

On September 5, the naphtha commodity index was 82.72, the same as yesterday, down 19.39% from the highest point of 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 95.83% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha continued to decline, the refined naphtha market was weak, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the market mentality was negative.

Upstream: international crude oil rose, mainly due to the expected warming of global economic recovery and favorable U.S. economic data. In addition, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its oil demand forecast for next year, resulting in a strong increase in oil prices.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene fell this week. The price of toluene was 5620.00 yuan / ton on September 5 and 5630.00 yuan / ton on September 30, down 0.18%. Mixed xylene fell this week. The price of mixed xylene was 5710.00 yuan / ton on September 5 and 5730.00 yuan / ton on August 30, down 0.35%. In terms of PX market, the trend of domestic PX price fell slightly this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic PX was 7100 yuan / ton, down 2.74% from 7300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 35th week of 2021 (8.30-9.3), there are 8 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were coking coal (9.47%), power coal (4.16%) and coke (3.62%). There were 6 commodities with month on month decline, and the top 3 products were diesel (- 0.79%), gasoline (- 0.56%) and naphtha (- 0.48%). Both rose or fell by 1.4% this week.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the recent rise of international crude oil, but the local refining naphtha market is weak, the terminal demand is weak, the market trading is less, the downstream is mainly on-demand procurement, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 3, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 8266 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 30 (the average price was reduced by 9233 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 967 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.47% during the week.

Since late August, the domestic butanone market has been weak as a whole. On the 25th and 26th, the butanone market began to decline in South China due to the restriction of high price transactions.

In this week, the decline of butanone opened in most parts of China on the 30th and 31st of the week, and the price of butanone decreased significantly. The cumulative decline for two consecutive days is referred to as 500-800 yuan / ton. From the middle of the week to the weekend, the decline of butanone price tightened, and the price stability mood of the operators is high, but the downstream demand boost is not obvious. The wait-and-see mood continues, and the market transaction is general, Shandong butanone factory continued to reduce the ex factory price of butanone by 200 yuan / ton. As of September 3, the ex factory price of butanone in Shandong was around 8100-8400 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of butanone in Jiangsu was around 8000-8300 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average ex factory price of butanone was 8266 yuan / ton as of September 3, down 967 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week, The weekly decline was 10.47%.

Upstream, Shandong civil gas market fluctuated and rose this week, with frequent but limited fluctuations during the week. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 4733.33 yuan / ton on August 29 and 4743.33 yuan / ton on September 3, with an increase of 0.21% during the week and 4.25% compared with the same period last year. This week, the trend of Shandong civil gas market showed a down up down trend. Although the price was adjusted frequently during the week, the range was small, and the overall narrow consolidation was the main trend. At the beginning of the week, that is, at the end of August, due to weak terminal demand, cautious downstream mentality and general enthusiasm for entering the market, the manufacturer’s shipment was not smooth, and the profit was mainly delivered. In the middle of the week, the CP price was introduced in September, and both propylene and butane rose, which gave a certain boost to the market. In addition, the volatile rise of international crude oil brought phased benefits to the civil gas market, the market supply was low, and the downstream market replenished, and the price increased. At the weekend, most of the civil gas market in Shandong maintained stability, and individual manufacturers adjusted according to their own conditions, and fell sporadically.

Future analysis of butanone

This week, the domestic butanone price decreased significantly and the market trading atmosphere was general, but the operators had sufficient confidence in keeping the price, and the downward range continued to be limited in the later stage. Therefore, butanone analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly maintain a narrow consolidation and operation.