Commodity index: on April 29, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 92.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 14.93% compared with 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 9.99% compared with 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)
Monitoring found that in April 2021, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in Henan Province of China showed a slight fluctuation, the amplitude was less than 1%, with little change. As shown in the figure, on April 1, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1710 yuan / ton, and on April 29, the mainstream price was 1717.14 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.42%. This month, water treatment plants in main production areas of Henan Province experienced intermittent production and production stoppage: due to the requirements of environmental protection policy, all water treatment plants in Gongyi region stopped production for rectification in mid March, and resumed production on a large scale in mid April. During this period, due to the temporary tension of some brands of some plants, the market of small and micro enterprises increased; After the resumption of production, the manufacturers had sufficient inventory, weak market demand, and the market fell with the trend, but there was not much up and down. On the whole, due to strict environmental protection inspection of manufacturers this month, the production enterprises that fail to meet the environmental protection standards stop production and resume production repeatedly. It is learned that some small enterprises have been unable to support the production because of stop production and demand. This situation will become more and more obvious with the strict environmental protection inspection; For manufacturers, it is urgent to improve the level of environmental protection technology.
Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, business news agency data showed that the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China in April was volatile and downward: on April 1, the mainstream market quotation was about 243.33 yuan / ton, and on April 29, it was about 226.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of about 6.85%. The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid; On the other hand, the monthly price fluctuation of silica in the lower reaches is no more than 1%, and the price of ammonium chloride is slightly down by 1.34% this month. The overall consolidation is high and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak. To sum up, hydrochloric acid is expected to fluctuate slightly in the near future.
Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In late April, the price of LPG for civilian use was “on the slide”. After the price fell by 5-6%, the price was basically stable. It is obvious from the trend chart that there is a big contrast with the rising market in early April. Although the price is down a part compared with the first ten days, the current price of Shandong civil gas is at a relatively high level, the atmosphere of downstream entering the market has warmed up, the manufacturers ship smoothly, and the inventory is mostly at a controllable level. There are still negative factors in the market, international crude oil is in a relatively weak position, and the market demand is expected to weaken due to the rising weather and temperature. Shandong civil gas market is expected to be stable in the short term.
Downstream demand: this month, enterprises are still going through strict inspection of environmental protection. They have stopped production and resumed production for many times. Some enterprises will stop production and rectify again near the end of the month. It is reported that the downstream demand is still average; At the same time, due to the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” proposed by the two sessions, the environmental protection requirements of production enterprises in various industries are more stringent and have long-term sustainability. Many enterprises need to stop production for rectification. In terms of environmental protection, there should be a certain demand for environmental protection products, but the demand for water treatment products may be worse. According to the reports of many enterprises, this year’s demand has been tepid, and they are constantly stopping production for rectification. As a result, enterprises are under great pressure, and some small enterprises may be eliminated.
Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, under the general trend of inflation caused by the global central bank’s water release, the prices of raw materials are rising in succession. Recently, the epidemic situation in some overseas areas is serious, and under the influence of multiple international factors such as Sino US relations, there may be periodic differentiation in various industries. As for the chemical industry, under the environmental protection policy requirements of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” of the two sessions in 2021, the chemical industry is bound to face strict rectification. With the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies, the environmental protection requirements will continue to be strict in the later stage, and the technical requirements of relevant enterprises will also be raised; Petrochemical enterprises are also facing strict rectification, and the technical threshold is constantly improving; The supply side can not avoid being affected by frequent stop production and rectification actions. In the case of large consumption of inventory, the price is expected to rise. To sum up, in the future, the price of polyaluminum chloride will be stable under the condition of general demand and sufficient inventory; The long-term sustainability of environmental protection inspection is bound to aggravate the survival of the fittest of production enterprises. Only by improving the technical level as soon as possible and meeting the environmental protection requirements as soon as possible can enterprises maintain long-term and effective development.
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