1、 Price trend

Isopropanol prices rose this week, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of isopropanol in China was 8800 yuan / ton last Friday and 9033.33 yuan / ton this Friday. The price rose by 2.65% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: price trend comparison of acetone and isopropanol from February to April

Isopropanol prices rose this week. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States closed stable on April 13, while isopropanol market in Europe closed stable. In terms of raw materials, the prices of propylene and acetone have risen, and the cost side has strong support. Isopropanol factory inventory is low, prices rise. Traders were more cautious in taking the goods. They were more wait-and-see in the market. Downstream customers mainly purchased on demand, and isopropanol market was higher. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 8700-9200 yuan / ton, and that of isopropanol in Jiangsu Province is about 9100-9200 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 9100 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market has been pushed up. The mainstream quotation of manufacturers is about 8300-8450 yuan / ton. The stock in Hong Kong has declined rapidly. The dealers have a positive attitude and the offer has gone up. In particular, the large dealers are in a high mood to support the price. The downstream factories are replenishing the products one after another. The atmosphere of market negotiation is good.

In terms of raw material propylene, the mainstream quotation of manufacturers is between 8300-8400 yuan / ton. U.S. propylene on April 1, down on the domestic market may have a certain impact. Propylene prices in Asia have risen slightly recently, which has little impact on the propylene market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair. It is expected that the market will continue to move upward.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analyst of chemical branch of business society thinks: at present, foreign export orders are relatively stable. Due to the rising market prices of propylene and acetone, the cost of isopropanol is under pressure, so the price of isopropanol is increased. From the perspective of sorting out, traders mainly wait and see, while downstream enterprises are more cautious in buying. It is expected that the market price of isopropanol will be stable temporarily in the short term.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine products)

2、 Market analysis

Melamine market rose steadily in the first half of April. According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of April 15, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 10050 yuan / ton, up 7.1% compared with April 1, 24.07% compared with March 15, 38.3% compared with January 1, and 95.78% compared with the same period last year.

At the beginning of April, the melamine market was mainly stable. Most of the manufacturers carried out the orders received in advance, and there was no pressure to move the goods. On the 6th, the quotation of enterprises rose. After the focus of market negotiation moved up, the price of melamine was stable and stable. Since the 9th, the price of melamine rose steadily. Some enterprises mainly export, and domestic trade mainly demand rigid demand. As the price of melamine rose to a high level, the pressure of downstream cost increased, which is very important to the market However, due to the support of more orders to be issued, the spot supply is tight, and the factory’s offer mentality is strong. The market is pushed up and stabilized after the low-end price of the market makes up.

Upstream urea, April 15, Shandong urea market temporarily stable. Demand side: agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; downstream compound fertilizer, plastic plate plant start load increased slightly, most go with the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, with a slight increase, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on April 14, 2021, there were 20 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 2 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities increased were epichlorohydrin (7.11%), butanone (6.12%) and styrene (2.47%). There were 11 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were ethanol (- 1.81%), polymerized MDI (- 1.74%) and 1,4-butanediol (- 1.09%). The average daily rise or fall was 0.22%.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that at present, there are more orders waiting to be issued to support the market, enterprises have no pressure to take goods, and the spot supply is tight. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic melamine market may be strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the downstream purchasing mentality.

Trade name: isopropanol

Latest price (March 24): 8983.33 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on April 14, the market focus of isopropanol rose. The market price of raw propylene rose, the price of acetone was high, the cost support was strong, the factory inventory was low, and the price rose slightly. Traders were more cautious in taking the goods. They were more wait-and-see in the market. Downstream customers mainly purchased on demand, and isopropanol market was higher. At present, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong is about 8600-9100 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 9100-9150 yuan / ton. Zhejiang isopropanol negotiation range is around 9000 yuan / ton. Isopropanol analysts of business news agency believe that isopropanol cost support is strong, factory inventory is low, pushing up obviously, but the downstream wait-and-see mood is obvious, mainly purchasing on demand, and isopropanol is expected to be high in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the recent external price of ethylene fluctuated and consolidated. On April 9, the price was 1143.50 US dollars / ton, and on April 12, the average price of ethylene was 1143.00 US dollars / ton, down 0.04%. The current price fell 4.51% month on month, and the current price rose 155.70% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market showed a shock consolidation trend. The price of ethylene market in Asia was stable. As of the 9th, CFR closed at US $1068-1074 / T in Northeast Asia and US $1013-1019 / T in Southeast Asia. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and fell. As of the 9th, FD closed at US $1249-1260 / T in northwest Europe and CIF closed at US $1224-1235 / T in northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the United States is stable. As of the 9th, the price is 1096-1107 US dollars / ton. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, America and Asia is relatively stable, showing a small fluctuation trend. Generally speaking, the external market of ethylene is cold and the market is volatile.

International: on April 9, international oil prices closed down slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market at US $59.32/barrel, down by US $0.28 or 0.5%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 62.95 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.25 U.S. dollars or 0.4%. Oil prices closed lower on Friday, down about 2% this week, mainly because increased production and renewed blockades by some countries overshadowed optimistic forecasts for the recovery of fuel demand.

Recently, the Styrene Market in Shandong has been declining. Port inventory is declining, new capacity is offset by equipment maintenance, domestic supply increment is limited, and the spot is tight, which can support the high price of styrene. However, the downstream has a resistance to high price styrene. Although the operating rate of the downstream rises collectively, the terminal is still in a wait-and-see state, and the purchase is just needed, and the transaction is sluggish.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, OPEC and its production reduction allies are gradually increasing crude oil production, crude oil demand is not optimistic, showing a downward trend, and the cost is difficult to support the ethylene market, so business society data analysts predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall next.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week. On April 4, the price of mixed xylene was 5460 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (April 11), the price was 5490 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton or 0.55% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s mixed xylene price adjustment range is + 50 / + 100 (yuan / ton). Xylene stocks at ports in East and South China fluctuated slightly this week. In the week, boosted by the increase of downstream PX inquiry, xylene mixed with xylene rose slightly. In terms of external market, as of April 9, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 725 US dollars / ton, up 11 US dollars / ton or 1.54% on April 2, and the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 745 US dollars / ton, up 15 US dollars / ton or 2.05% on April 2.

Crude oil, this week’s crude oil long short game, price shocks. Good news: US commercial crude oil inventory fell, China and US economic data were strong; bad news: OPEC + decided to gradually increase crude oil production, and the epidemic situation in Europe and other places was severe. On April 1, Brent rose 0.08 USD / barrel, or 0.13%; WTI fell 2.13 USD / barrel, or 3.46%.

Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week was more stable than last week, the price was 6400 yuan / ton, up 48.84% year on year. The operation of domestic p-xylene units is stable as a whole, Sinopec and private enterprises are in normal operation, the on-site operation rate is more than 90%, the on-site supply is normal, and the goods are in good condition. As of April 9, closing prices in Asia were 786-788 USD / T FOB Korea and 804-806 USD / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China rose first and then fell this week, slightly lower than last week. On Sunday (April 11), the price was 4398.5 yuan / ton, 0.71% lower than last week, and 27.37% higher than the same period last year. As of April 9, PTA operation rate was 79%, slightly lower than last week. PTA processing is at a relatively low level, and the maintenance of the plant is increasing. At present, the start-up of PTA plant is below 80%, and the supply side will continue to shrink in April.

In the ox market, the price of ox this week was flat compared with last week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 5400 yuan / ton, up 42.11% compared with the same period last year. Domestic supply of o-benzene is sufficient; the cost side is adjusted in a volatile way; the downstream market is adjusted in a volatile way, and the demand is just demand-oriented, so the transaction enthusiasm of o-benzene is general.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Although the downstream inquiry increased, the overall demand has not improved substantially. In April, some refineries entered the spring inspection, and the market supply of unit maintenance decreased, which is expected to benefit the price of mixed xylene. However, the follow-up of downstream demand is still weak, and the wait-and-see sentiment of cargo holders is strong. It is expected that the short-term mixed xylene will still follow the fluctuation of crude oil. Focus on the impact of crude oil, gasoline blending price trend, xylene plant spring maintenance dynamic, port inventory and downstream demand changes on xylene price.