1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices fell slightly this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 65673.33 yuan / ton, down 1.82% from 66888.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 13.32% from the beginning of the year, and up 68.55% from the same period last year. LME March copper fell this week. It opened at $9020 at the beginning of the week, then fell to close at $8702. This week, Shanghai copper fell. It opened at 66510 yuan on Monday. After the opening, the price fell to 64930 yuan, and finally closed at 66170 yuan. This week, the price rose 130 yuan, or 0.13%.

Affected by the continuous rise of the US dollar, the fund is weak as a whole, suppressing copper prices. Recently, the copper price fluctuated at a high level, the domestic inventory accumulated, and the industrial drive weakened. At present, the domestic monetary policy is loose, and the total demand increased. After April, the demand for cables from infrastructure and real estate will gradually pick up, while the supply side’s expectation of gradually going to the warehouse will remain unchanged, considering the low price ratio and the concentration of refinery maintenance in the second quarter and the limited supply increment of refined copper. Generally speaking, the downstream investment demand is weak, while the consumption demand is fair. Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short term, mainly volatile trend.

1、 Price trend

 
2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business news agency, as of March 25, the average price of domestic Mannheim potassium sulfate 50 particle samples was 2916.67 yuan / ton, up 4.79% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and 1.45% compared with the same period last year.

This week, the potassium sulfate Market was stable at a high level, and the domestic potassium sulfate spot market had limited changes. The operating rate of domestic Mannheim potassium sulfate plant is also stable, and the overall operating rate is slightly lower than last week. Today (March 25), Shijiazhuang hehe chemical 52% potassium sulfate powder factory reference price of 3000 yuan / ton. Shijiazhuang Haofang chemical 50% potassium sulfate powder factory reference price of 2850 yuan / ton. On the supply side, the phenomenon that some big merchants were reluctant to sell and control the supply was continued. The port’s stock of goods is fair, but the price of imported goods is high. In terms of potassium chloride, the potassium chloride products of Qinghai Salt Lake potash fertilizer increased by a large margin this week, indicating that the supply of goods in the field is still tight, and the market of potassium sulfate is favorable at the same time. Downstream purchasing still adopts a cautious strategy, especially for the high price of imported goods.

3、 Future forecast

Business community potassium sulfate analysts believe that: the current potassium sulfate manufacturers offer stable high. The price position of upstream petrochemical bulk products still has a supporting effect on the cost of potassium sulfate, and potassium chloride has a considerable increase this week, which is also good for the price of potassium sulfate. At present, the domestic operating rate is basically the same as last week, and the market trading power still needs to be improved. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may remain stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of bulk commodities, the price of chlorinated paraffin dropped within the week. The average price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5600 yuan / ton last Friday and 5500 yuan / ton this Wednesday. The price was reduced by 1.79% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of chlorinated paraffin declined in the week. At present, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui Province is about 5400-5600 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is relatively stable, about 5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shaanxi Province is about 5600 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell sharply on March 23, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $57.76/barrel, down 3.80 US dollars or 6.17%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the settlement price of the main contract was $60.86/barrel, down $3.68 or 5.70%. WTI fell more than 6% on Tuesday, mainly due to concerns about a new round of control measures in Europe and slow progress of vaccine promotion, combined with increased crude oil production.

Liquid wax, liquid wax prices this week more stable, the overall trading atmosphere is good. In terms of liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine was not good, and some areas began to conflict with the downstream, and the transaction price fell to 1300-1500 yuan / ton; Shandong liquid chlorine rebounded, and the mainstream price rose to 1600-1700 yuan / ton. In terms of demand, the downstream enterprises have basically started construction, the demand is fair, and the overall trading is average.

3、 Future forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts of business news agency believe that the overall market trading atmosphere of chlorinated paraffin is general. At present, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 is still at a relatively high level. The downstream takes goods on demand. The shipment of chlorinated paraffin in East China slows down, and the trading in South China is relatively stable. There are regional differences in the ex factory price of chlorinated paraffin. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be strong in the short term.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: curve of P value of acrylic product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of March 23, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 11966.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, decreased by 0.28% compared with last Tuesday (March 16), and increased by 21.69% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the trend of raw material propylene is weak, and the market is in a wait-and-see mood. In the shutdown and maintenance of some enterprises, the market supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the downstream market has a general starting load, mainly purchasing on demand.

Upstream propylene, as of March 22, Shandong propylene market prices continued to decline. According to the price chart of the business society, affected by the upstream and downstream, the propylene price rose again and again in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. It was generally stable at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The price began to decline on the 4th, and generally rebounded on the 8th. The price rose 150-250 yuan / ton in two days, and then generally stabilized. The price rose about 50 yuan / ton again on the 12th, and continued to rise 50 yuan / ton on the 15th, starting from the 16th Since the 18th, the price has entered the downward channel again, with a daily drop of 100-150 yuan / ton. The current market transaction has dropped to 7950-8700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7950-8000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the supply side has some support, but the demand side is cautious in entering the market, and the demand side purchases on demand. In addition, the price of raw material propylene declines, and the cost side support weakens. It is expected that the acrylic acid Market will be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of toluene continued to decline this week. The price of toluene was 5877.5 yuan / ton on March 14 and 5587.5 yuan / ton on March 21, down 290 yuan / ton or 4.93% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is – 600 / – 150 (yuan / ton). Weak downstream demand, coupled with a sharp drop in crude oil, the market mentality was short, and toluene fell in shock. Toluene stocks at ports in East and South China fell this week. In terms of external market, the external market continued to fall this week. As of March 12, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $689 / T, down US $53 / T or 7.14% compared with March 12, and the price of imported toluene from East China was US $709 / T, down US $51 / T or 6.71% compared with March 12.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil plummeted this week, which flattened the previous gains. International oil prices have plummeted under the pressure of multiple bad news such as the continuous growth of US crude oil stocks for four weeks, the tightening of blockade measures caused by a new wave of epidemic in Europe, the blocked vaccination, the stronger US dollar exchange rate and the soaring US debt yield. On March 12, Brent fell $5.565/barrel, or 8.03%; WTI fell $4.2/barrel, or 6.4%

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fluctuated and fell this week, with the price of domestic goods at 17500 yuan / ton, down 8.7% from last week and up 58.61% from the same period last year. The domestic market is weak, the atmosphere of on-site trading is light, the terminal’s overall willingness to receive goods is weak, the demand is insufficient, the purchase is just needed, and the trading is general.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week was stable compared with last week, at 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year and 21.82% over the same period last year. The domestic supply of p-xylene is general, but there are many overhauls of overseas units, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene remains high. The recent trend of international crude oil prices fluctuated, but the PX price did not change much. As of the 19th, the closing prices in Asia were 778-780 US dollars / ton, FOB South Korea and 796-798 US dollars / ton, CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Under the pressure of multiple bad news, crude oil fell, toluene cost support weakened; downstream demand follow-up was weak, mainly rigid demand. The price of toluene is expected to fall in the short term. However, the toluene unit of Quanzhou Petrochemical Company operated at low load, the toluene units of Daxie Petrochemical Company and Huizhou Petrochemical Company were shut down, and the supply of cargo was tight, which supported the strong price of toluene. We will continue to pay attention to the international trend of crude oil, the arrival of toluene in Hong Kong, the dynamic situation of domestic enterprises and the impact of downstream demand changes on the price of toluene.