Near the end of the month, the three polyethylene spot varieties continued the trend, and the difference still existed. On the 27th, the LDPE market still rose locally, with a range of 50-200 yuan / ton. LLDPE and HDPE remained stable, but the trend of HDPE was still weak.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8383.33 yuan / ton on July 25 and 8383.33 yuan / ton on July 26. During this period, the price remained stable, with an overall increase of 1.00% compared with July 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 10500.00 yuan / ton on July 25 and 10575.00 yuan / ton on July 26. During this period, the price increased by 0.71%, and the overall price increased by 3.45% compared with July 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9133.33 yuan / ton on July 25 and 9133.33 yuan / ton on July 26. During this period, the price remained stable, with an overall decrease of 0.72% compared with July 1.

In July, the overall trend of the three polyethylene spot varieties was different, with ups and downs. LLDPE and LDPE in East China have risen since July, while HDPE has mainly fallen below. Near the end of the month, LDPE is still the main actor, and HDPE is vulnerable and difficult to change. On the 26th, the ex factory price of petrochemical rose and fell, the high-pressure market increased steadily, and the cost support remained. However, traders have a general mentality, most of the quotations are downward, the downstream currently maintains taking goods on demand, and the overall enthusiasm for entering the market is not high.

In the upstream ethylene market, the external ethylene market has shown an overall upward trend recently. The price of ethylene in Asia is stable. As of the 22nd, CFR Northeast Asia closed at USD 1001-1011 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 966-976 / ton. The price center of ethylene market in Europe moved upward. As of the 22nd, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1160-1170 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1063-1071 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States is stable. As of the 22nd, the price is US $1045-1062 / T. recently, the external ethylene market fluctuated and rose. The increase of ethylene in the United States in the early stage is relatively large and stable in the near future. Generally speaking, the overall ethylene external market demand is good recently, the purchasing atmosphere is active, the transaction is good, and the center of gravity of ethylene market moves upward.

On July 26, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2109 was 8315, the highest price was 8335, the lowest price was 8160, the closing price was 8165, the former settlement price was 8345, the settlement price was 8240, down 180, down 2.16%, the trading volume was 424648, the position was 306683, and the daily position was increased by – 3926（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, Liansu futures market is opening lower and lower, petrochemical prices rise and fall differently, and the positive support of the market is limited. In terms of demand, it is expected that there will be a slight increase in the later stage of agricultural film, the operating rate of pipes will decrease significantly, and the overall demand will not change much. The enthusiasm of downstream market entry is weaker than that in the early stage. Multidimensional holds to make up on demand, continues the negotiation mode, the merchant’s mentality is general, and most quotations are downward. It is expected that the PE spot market will remain sideways in the short term, dominated by shocks, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes of plastic futures.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, on the 26th, the nickel price continued to rise. The spot nickel quotation was 147083.33 yuan / ton, up 2.74% from the previous trading day, 14.79% from the beginning of the year and 35.66% year-on-year.

Spot nickel prices continued to rise slightly, with a single day increase of 4000 yuan / ton. The rise of nickel price is related to the increased demand boosted by the development of new energy industry. First, BHP Billiton, a global mining giant, suddenly announced that it had signed a nickel supply agreement with Tesla, a new energy vehicle giant, which was provided by its company Western nickel. Then Toyota suddenly announced that the “bipolar NiMH battery” had been put into mass production and installed in the hybrid system. In terms of supply, affected by the weather and epidemic situation, Philippine shipments are also relatively small, and nickel ore prices are high. According to the latest estimate of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global demand for cobalt and nickel will increase 20 times in the next 20 years, resulting in nickel shortage.

Forecast: the supply is tight and the demand is optimistic. It is expected that the nickel price will still operate strongly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of activated carbon was 9066 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 9166 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a price increase of 1.10%.

The domestic price of activated carbon is strong. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton; Enquiries in the domestic activated carbon market have increased. There is a demand for replenishment in the downstream before the festival. The downstream mentality is good. Most shipments are delivered according to orders, and more attention is paid to the downstream transaction.

Activated carbon is rich in raw materials, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell and straw. Activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared through a series of processes. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Forecast: the activated carbon market mostly takes goods on demand, and basically purchases with small orders to meet normal production. Most traders maintain shipment and reduce positions, and the short-term activated carbon price may be dominated by shock consolidation.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of July 23, the average price of lithium iron phosphate, a domestic high-class power product, was 51000.00 yuan / ton. Recently, the market has operated smoothly, the focus of negotiation is stable, the downstream just needs to purchase, the price fluctuation range is small, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

This week, the lithium iron phosphate market mainly operated stably, with balanced supply and demand, stable price trend, balanced supply and demand, stable operation of upstream lithium carbonate, slow rise, main supply contract customers and limited number of new customers. At present, the mainstream quotation range of lithium iron phosphate power type is 49000-53000 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of energy storage lithium iron phosphate is 44000-48000 yuan / ton, The price range of upstream battery grade lithium carbonate is 87000-91000 yuan / ton, and the price range of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 80000-85000 yuan / ton. The upstream lithium carbonate mainly operates smoothly and the trend is relatively stable.

On July 22, the chemical index was 1101 points, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 84.11% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to from December 1, 2011 to now)

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that lithium iron phosphate is expected to run smoothly next week with limited fluctuation range（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

Recently, the domestic liquid ammonia market has continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business society, after the sharp rise in May, the liquid ammonia has been consolidating at a high level from June to early July. Since mid July, the liquid ammonia market has started again and continued to rise, with a strong increase. According to the monitoring of the business society, the liquid ammonia has increased by 6.72% in the past two weeks (July 12-22). At present, the price range of Shandong market is 4500-4800 yuan / ton, and some quotations have broken through the 4800 mark, reaching the highest level in history. The soaring price of liquid ammonia is the result of the dual effects of higher cost and tight supply and demand.

With the increase of market inflation expectation, as domestic commodities usher in a new round of rising cycle, especially the upstream coal of liquid ammonia, the rise is stronger. Good cost support is obvious. In addition, the supply of liquid ammonia continues to be tight. At present, it is still affected by the low operation rate of domestic devices and the excessive number of maintenance devices, and the supply has decreased significantly, which leads to the shortage of supply in the market and the price of liquid ammonia has gone up sharply due to factors such as dealers’ speculation.

On the cost side, the domestic coal market is booming. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of July 22, the price of steam coal rose by 7.54% in July. The price has broken through the high point of may in the last round of rise, rising by more than 80% compared with the same period last year（ (see above)

On the supply side, tight supply is the direct cause of the rise in the price of liquid ammonia. The operating rate of ammonia enterprises is declining, and routine maintenance and device failures occur frequently in many regions of China. According to statistics, in July, several sets of devices were stopped in Lianghu, northwest and Hebei. In the last two weeks, large plants in Shandong and Hebei have entered the maintenance period. The maintenance period generally has a long time span of nearly one month, which has a great impact on the production capacity. The market has gradually spread from the shortage of local supply at the beginning of this month to the shortage of ammonia in many regions of China.

From the downstream perspective, urea has been fluctuating at a high level since June. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of urea has also risen in the past two weeks, with an increase of 2.21%, 67.81% over the same period last year. The maintenance of urea plant is still the same. Recently, the production reduction and resumption of urea enterprises are staggered, and the start-up recovery is slow. The daily output is about 160000 tons, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. Superimposed printing mark landing, domestic market mentality has been boosted.

In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, and the agricultural demand is fair; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. According to the monitoring of business news agency, monoammonium phosphate has also been on the rise in the past two weeks. At present, it has reached the stage peak. In the last two weeks (July 12-22), it has increased by 2.21% so far.

In the future, the tight supply of domestic ammonia is difficult to solve in the short term. In addition, with the cost support brought by the high price of upstream raw materials, the price of liquid ammonia may remain high, which does not rule out the possibility of continuing to rise.