According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of July 21, the average quoted price of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 30633 yuan / ton, which was 67 yuan / ton higher than that on July 14 (30566 yuan / ton), an increase of 0.22%.

Since the beginning of July, China’s domestic silicone DMC market has been running steadily at a high level, with little fluctuation in market price. As of July 14, the reference price of silicone DMC is around 30500-30900 yuan / ton. In late July, a monomer factory in Shandong broke the calm of the silicone DMC market. On the 15th and 16th, the factory price of silicone DMC was slightly increased by 100 yuan / ton for two consecutive days, and the factory price of silicone DMC was adjusted to 30700 yuan / ton. Most of the other monomer factories continued to maintain stable prices in the early stage, and the market continued to consolidate at a high level, Shandong large factories once again raised the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC to 30800 yuan / ton, and other individual monomer factories also rose sporadically. The downstream demand of silicone DMC weakened. With the continuous high raw material level, the downstream delivery became more cautious. So far, as of July 21, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of silicone DMC is 30666 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that on July 1, or 0.34%.

Upstream, since July, the overall trend of domestic silicon metal market is stable. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of July 20, the domestic reference price of metallic silicon was 14450 yuan / ton, up 0.58% compared with July 1 (14366.67 yuan / ton).

Forecast of silicone DMC Market

At present, the trend of silicone DMC downstream products is all the way strong under the high support of raw materials, but the terminal downstream demand has been weakened under the sustained high level. Therefore, the silicone DMC analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will continue to have insufficient upward momentum, and the market will mostly be high consolidation operation.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic market of PA6 in mid July fell, and spot prices decreased. As of July 20, the main offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongwei 2.75-2.85 was about 15566.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.09% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a 38.99% increase compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of upstream caprolactam, domestic caprolactam spot market fell slightly in the middle of this month. In the first ten days, the supply side of the company was favorable and kept rising at the end of June, but the international crude oil has declined in recent years. Meanwhile, the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, which is directly raw material, is expected to have new capacity, with increased supply, high pressure on drop of pure benzene and weak cost end of caprolactam in China. In terms of demand, the current downstream plant commencement rate is generally low, the market buying atmosphere is weak, and the industry’s wait-and-see mentality gradually permeates the site. Although there is a positive side of supply, domestic demand for caprolactam is slow to follow up and the cost is weak. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will easily fall and will not rise in the short term.

At present, the load of PA6 polymerization plant in China is less than that at the beginning of the month, and the load is stable at about 60%. There is no significant building of social inventory, and supply end has some support for spot, among which the price of high-speed spinning section is relatively stable. In terms of market demand, the consumption of end enterprises has not yet gone out of the off-season market, and the atmosphere of on-site observation is heavy, and the actual investment is mostly the pre order. The rise in early July affected the purchasing power of downstream enterprises. At present, buyers have a feeling of filling high price goods, and the operation of stock preparation is just needed to replenish goods to maintain production. In addition, the recent narrow decline of caprolactam, the cost side support of PA6 is loose, and the price is up to the upstream to some extent.

3、 Post market forecast:

Analysts at business society believe that the caprolactam in the upper reaches of PA6 was weak in mid July and the cost side support of PA6 was weakened. Currently, the starting rate of PA6 industry is maintained at a low level, and the support of supply side remains. However, the end-users are in conflict with the spot price increase in the first ten days, and the resistance to the delivery of high price goods in the field increases, which leads to the shrinking of the mid mid delivery and investment, and the market wait-and-see mentality is strong. It is expected that spot price of PA6 will weaken slightly in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the market of dichloromethane rose slightly this week (7.12-7.16). As of July 16, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 3940 yuan / ton, up 0.42% from 3923 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, film, diluent, foaming agent and other downstream still have a certain rigid demand, which also forms a certain support for dichloromethane.

The price of raw material liquid chlorine is at a low level, the price of methanol is in a narrow range, and the cost support becomes weak. According to the business news agency, as of July 16, the price of methanol was 2535 yuan / ton, slightly changed from 2530 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; The main factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province is about 1050 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: business community methane chloride data analysts believe that although the demand has some support, on the one hand, the cost side support becomes weak, on the other hand, the supply side pressure does not reduce, on the whole, the later dichloromethane market is more likely to weaken.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fell first and then rose this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 696733.33 yuan / ton, up 0.25% from 69496.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 20.22% from the beginning of the year, and up 35.99% from the same period last year. This week, LME copper first suppressed and then rose in March, closing at US $9455, down 0.40% for the week; This week, the Shanghai copper index was in a narrow range, closing at 69430 yuan, up 0.59%. This week, the international copper index closed at 61830 yuan, up 1.00%.

Recently, copper prices mainly fluctuated in a narrow range. The drop of reserve requirement on Friday led copper futures to open higher on Monday. However, the slightly weak domestic economic data and continuous overseas trading led copper prices to callback. At the end of the week, affected by the dovish stance of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, copper futures strengthened again, and the overall trend of the week fluctuated. This week, the domestic refined copper storage is still in the downward channel. Under the background of the recent tightening of scrap copper supply and refinery production disturbance, the removal of refined copper storage is expected to continue. Consumption has a certain resilience. The recent recovery of demand in the cable field, which started the weakest in the first half of the year, may weaken the off-season effect of consumption in the third quarter. TC continued to pick up, refined copper output grew faster, and imports slowed down. It is expected that the copper price will still fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of bulk commodities, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 19350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 23333.33 yuan / ton in the middle of the month. The price increased by 20.59% in half a month.

2、 Market analysis

Since July, the price of yellow phosphorus has been in a high consolidation stage. Recently, affected by the power rationing in Yunnan, the price of yellow phosphorus has risen again, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has declined, and the spot market is tight. The main manufacturers have issued early orders, and some manufacturers have temporarily stopped quoting. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 22000-25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Sichuan is about 24000-25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Guizhou is about 20000-22000 yuan / ton. Due to the rapid rise in prices, the market more wait-and-see, manufacturers send early orders, new orders are limited.

In terms of phosphate rock, in early July, China’s phosphate rock market as a whole was in a high level, and the supply of mines in Guizhou was tight. Phosphate rock manufacturers expected that the price of phosphate rock would continue to move towards the high end. On July 12, Guizhou phosphate rock enterprises took the lead in raising the initial and high-end grade price of phosphate rock by 20-50 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, the reference price of 30% grade in Guizhou is 490-510 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade in Guizhou is 440-470 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 550 yuan / ton, Compared with the previous working day, the one-day increase was 3.77%. At present, the spot supply of phosphorus ore market is still tight, some mining enterprises in Guizhou are in a state of shortage, and the overall market quotation is high and firm. As of July 12, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei area is about 510-530 yuan / ton. Compared with early July, the market price of phosphorus ore in Guangxi has also been increased by 20-30 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of 28% grade phosphate rock factory in Guangxi is around 430-470 yuan / ton, and that of 30% grade phosphate rock factory is around 470-510 yuan / ton. The overall phosphorus ore market is running at a high level.

In terms of coke, the coke market as a whole is weak, the expected scope of production limit of downstream steel plants is expanded, the purchasing enthusiasm is reduced, the coke supply is gradually relaxed, and the price mentality is strong. As of July 14, the mainstream price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2950 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day and flat compared with the same period last month.

Phosphoric acid and phosphate markets are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, phosphoric acid market rises sporadically, with good trading volume, and actual transaction is mainly through negotiation. Glyphosate was acceptable to high valence yellow phosphorus, and played a supporting role to high valence yellow phosphorus.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus has gone up sharply at present. In Yunnan Province, power rationing, yellow phosphorus production reduction, spot yellow phosphorus market is basically out of stock, yellow phosphorus Market tension intensified. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will continue to rise in the short term.