1、 Trend analysis

 

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. The spot nickel price was 138200 yuan / ton, up 0.57% from 137416.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 7.86% from the beginning of the year, and up 25.67% year on year. At the beginning of this week, Shanghai nickel mainly opened at 132660, then the price fluctuated sharply, closing at 133380 on Friday, up 0.75%. Lunni closed at $18090 by Friday’s deadline, up 0.25% for the week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

At the macro level, US bond interest rates rose, but inflation expectations did not follow. The market was worried about the gradual withdrawal of quantitative easing. However, China’s economic data was strong, China’s annual GDP data was relatively bright, and the commodity market had a certain boost. At present, the supply of refined nickel is relatively stable, the consumption of downstream stainless steel is better than the same period in previous years, the consumption of new energy is strong, the spot supply is tight, there is still strong support below, and the supply and demand of refined nickel in the middle line is better.

 

Future forecast: the current good macro environment can provide a certain support for the high consolidation of nickel price, the fundamental change is not big, and it is expected that nickel price will still maintain a high volatility pattern in the near future.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus fell this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 16900 yuan / ton last Thursday and 16733.33 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price fell by 0.99% during the week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This week, the overall trend of domestic yellow phosphorus market was downward, the spot market tension was eased, the business owners issued early orders, the transaction of new orders on the floor was limited, and the replenishment of small orders was mainly sporadic. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 16900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 16700 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole is stable, and the downstream procurement is mainly cautious. The price of Xifeng phosphate ore in Guizhou Province is stable. The price of 30% low-grade phosphate ore is 340 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that of a week ago. At present, the market is still weak and the shipment volume is average.

 

In terms of coke, up to now, Shandong, Shanxi and other major production areas have implemented the fourteenth round of price increase, with a total of 900 yuan / ton in the fourteenth round. At present, coking enterprises are making good profits, starting work actively and selling well. Shandong Zibo coke (secondary metallurgical coke) market price, the mainstream price is about 2640 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, 450 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month. In the market price of coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke is 2590 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day and 450 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month; the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 2640 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day and 450 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month.

 

This week, the phosphoric acid market continued to be stable, with few new orders in the market, stable prices and main orders. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will be stable in the short term.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus will fall this week. At present, the tight spot market has been eased, and the business owners issue orders in the early stage, with a small amount of replenishment in the downstream. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the near future.

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According to the price monitoring data of the business community, as of January 20, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol containing packaging in mainstream regions was around 11600 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on January 13, 2020; compared with that on January 1, 2020, the average price was reduced by 200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.69%.

 

After a slight boost in the domestic n-propanol market on the 11th, the market of n-propanol remained stable and weak this week, and the offer prices of n-propanol plants in Shandong and Nanjing remained basically stable. Shandong region: the ex factory quotation of n-propanol is 10500-10800 yuan / ton (loose water), including packaging, and the price is 11300-11700 yuan / ton (including packaging), which is basically the same as the price a week ago. Nanjing area: some n-propanol manufacturers in Nanjing maintained a stable report. Some factories reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol apron by 200 yuan / T. the ex factory price of n-propanol apron is 10300-10800 yuan / T. among them, a n-propanol manufacturer in Nanjing has normal operation and limited inventory. The reference quotation of n-propanol apron including tax is around 10500 yuan / T.

 

On the supply side, the overall inventory of n-propanol domestic factories is low, most of them are direct supply contract users, some of them are in the secondary market, so the sales pressure is small. On the demand side, the downstream users’ demand is general, mainly purchasing on demand, and the pre holiday replenishment has not appeared yet, with few new orders.

 

In terms of raw materials, the overall external market of ethylene has shown a downward trend recently. On January 11, the price was $1086.75/ton, while on January 18, the average price of ethylene was $1059.75/ton, down 2.48%. The current price has increased by 8.09% month on month, and the current price has increased by 28.11% year on year. Asian ethylene market prices fell slightly. As of the 18th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1040-1050 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $980-990 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe fell. As of the 18th, FD northwest Europe quoted 1092-1103 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted 1099-1108 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. fell. As of the 18th, the last trading day, the price of FD US Gulf was 914-926 US dollars / ton. Recently, the market of ethylene in the U.S. fell and the demand was general.

 

Supply and demand are both weak and n-propanol will continue to be weak and stable in the future

 

At present, the overall performance of the domestic n-propanol market is weak in both supply and demand. Therefore, the n-propanol data division of the business society believes that the domestic n-propanol market will continue to be weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the price trend of raw material cost and market demand in the future.

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The domestic ethanol market rose strongly this week. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic ethanol market price was 7075 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7237 yuan / ton at the weekend, with an increase of 2.30% in the week, a month on month increase of 3.76% and a year-on-year increase of 31.11%.

 

In terms of regional market conditions, the market in Northeast China was reorganized, the market in East China and Shandong was up, the market in Henan was up, the market in South China and Guangxi was up, the market in Dongguan was up, the market in Anhui was high, the market in Sichuan was up, and the market in Yunnan was strong.

 

From the perspective of raw material corn, from the perspective of raw material corn, this week, the average spot price of corn was 2715 yuan / ton, up 5.58%. The public health incident counterattacked, and the processing enterprises worried about the logistics and supply problems that might occur in the later stage, and generally started the Spring Festival stock in advance. In the case of logistics and transportation obstruction caused by the epidemic, the corn price increased significantly. From the perspective of demand, Baijiu demand has ended, and chemical demand is mainly pre stocked.

 

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

 

Region, category, price

About 7600-7700 yuan / ton of corn alcohol in Sichuan, including tax

About 6700-6800 yuan / ton of molasses alcohol in Yunnan

About 6800-7000 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Yunnan

In Guangxi, honey alcohol is less than 7300 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Guangxi is 6950-7200 yuan / ton

Guangxi region: anhydrous ethanol: 7800-7850 yuan / ton

About 7000-7350 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Guangdong

The absolute cassava ethanol content in Guangdong Province is about 8000-8200

Heilongjiang Province ﹣ corn alcohol general grade ﹣ 6350-6450 yuan / ton, tax included

Jilin Province ﹣ 6650 yuan / ton of ordinary alcohol, tax included

Henan Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7350-7400 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan Province: 8000-8100 yuan / ton of anhydrous ethanol including tax

Hebei Province: 6750-6800 yuan / ton

Hebei Province: 7500 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 7200-7300 yuan / ton

Shandong Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7600 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 7900-7950 yuan / ton

In southern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 6800-6900 yuan / ton

In the south of Jiangsu Province, ﹣ 7350-7450 yuan / ton

In Northern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 6950 yuan / ton

In Anhui Province, the average corn grade is about 7350-7400 yuan / ton

In Anhui Province, the average price of cassava is 7150-7200 yuan / ton

In Anhui Province, the price is about 8150-8200 yuan / ton

In terms of logistics, the current freight rate is rising. Heilongjiang Shandong freight is 500-600 yuan / ton, Heilongjiang Baoqing Subei 620 yuan / ton, Henan Sichuan 500 yuan / ton, Guangxi Qinzhou Guangdong Dongguan 160-220 yuan / ton.

 

Raw material corn prices continue to rise, traders and farmers are reluctant to sell, short-term prices remain high. The start-up of ethanol production enterprises is not high, and the large-scale plants have obvious warehouse discharge in the early stage, and the short-term price remains stable. Business community ethanol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market will be dominated by consolidation.

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Zinc price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of zinc fluctuated and fell in January, and the zinc market fell back. As of January 18, the average price of zinc was 20573.33 yuan / ton, down 3.52% from 21323.33 yuan / ton on January 1 at the beginning of the month.

 

Domestic zinc monthly output

 

Time ﹣ inventory this week ﹣ inventory increase / decrease

Sub total futures sub total futures

11.30-12.4 55510 13335 -736 -1354

12.7-12.11 46681 9920 -8829 -3415

12.14-12.18 41216 9565 -5465 -355

12.21-12.25 32854 7310 -8362 -2255

12.28-12.31 28581 6058 -4273 -1252

1.4-1.8 35008 3735 6427 -2323

1.11-1.18 43177 14775 8169 11040

 
According to the data of Shanghai futures market, the inventory of zinc in Shanghai futures market increased and the supply of zinc increased in January. The domestic supply of zinc increased in January, and the rising power of zinc decreased and the downward pressure increased.

 

Import and export data of zinc concentrate

 

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, in November 2020, China imported 216400 physical tons of zinc concentrate, which decreased by 87000 physical tons or 28.7% compared with October, and increased by 137700 physical tons or 38.9% compared with November 2019. From January to November 2020, the total import was 3.4978 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 635000 physical tons, an increase of 22.2%. The import volume of zinc concentrate increased greatly, the supply of zinc market was sufficient, and the downward pressure of zinc market increased.

 

Analysis summary and Prospect

 

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, believes that: in January, the inventory of zinc ingots in Shanghai market increased, and the supply of zinc market increased. Recently, the import volume of zinc concentrate increased. The supply of domestic zinc market was sufficient, the supply of zinc market increased, and the downward pressure of zinc ingots increased.

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