According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market was positive in November, and the spot prices of various brands increased significantly. As of December 1, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 9066.67 yuan / ton, which was 11.25% higher than the average price level in early November.

Cause analysis

In terms of propylene upstream of PP, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fluctuated steadily in the first ten days of November, and showed a straight-line upward trend in the last ten days, according to the data of the business club’s bulk list. At the beginning of the month, the monthly low price was 6737 yuan / ton, while at the end of the month, the monthly high price was 7739 yuan / ton. The monthly average price was over 1000 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 14.87%. Now the factory stock is small, the shipment situation is good. In November, the price of upstream crude oil was mainly up with slight fluctuation, which had a limited impact on propylene. The increase of downstream products was obvious, which had a positive impact on propylene. However, at the end of November, the market began to stabilize, and the upward pressure in the later stage was greater, so it is expected that the propylene price will stabilize temporarily in the near future.

The market of propylene in November is positive and the current price is high, which has certain support for the cost side of PP. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the PP (drawing) market in November was red all month, with a good trend. In terms of inventory, according to the news, petrochemicals’ inventory increased significantly in early November, and the two oil inventories increased rapidly. Driven by the rise of futures, the market trading atmosphere turned warm and the inventory decreased smoothly. In the middle and late ten days, the inventory position of manufacturers even dropped to the low point of the year. At present, the price of PP is high, the cost pressure of plastic industry compresses the profit space, and some plastic enterprises have plans to reduce production and reduce the burden. In addition, with the start-up of the previously shut-down units and the actual production of new units, the domestic PP supply has increased significantly, which may have a negative impact on the future market.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of December 1, the mainstream offer of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was the same as that of drawing materials, with the price of about 9066.67 yuan / ton, which was 9.46% higher than the average price level in early November. Due to the large price increase of fiber materials in October, downstream mentality tends to be cautious in the first half of the month, but domestic restorative consumption growth boosts demand. Combined with the rise of raw material propylene in November and the boost of futures, the fiber material market rose smoothly in the second half of the month. At the end of November and the beginning of December, the supply and demand of polyolefins increased, and the power of just needed continuous follow-up was insufficient. It is expected that the price of fiber materials will come back in the near future.

PP meltblown material market recent shock finishing market, price trend and supply and demand led. At present, the y1500 price of Maoming Petrochemical is stable, and the reference quotation is 10900 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable. Recently, a small-scale rebound has occurred in some areas, and the demand has increased slightly. In the middle of the month, the price of some brands of meltblown materials has increased by 100-200 yuan / ton, but the overall price trend is weak. There are too many suppliers in the meltblown cloth and material manufacturing market, and the profit is diluted seriously. The second outbreak trend of overseas epidemic is obvious, many countries announced to close the city again, and the non-woven fabric in the application of medical protection is sought after again. However, it is difficult for the price of meltblown materials to improve from the trend of big stability and small movement of imported materials. The business agency believes that the melt blown PP market in November is supported by the cost side, but the overall trend is still biased towards adjustment.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: November domestic PP spot market is more positive. The upstream propylene market is strong and the price is rising, which supports the cost side of PP. Mid late futures also boosted the spot market. In November, PP (drawing) price increased, PP (fiber) market also rose, PP (melt blown) decline tends to be stable. At present, the stock purchase of downstream factories turns weak and the transaction is weak. Merchants make profit and take delivery actively. PP spot is expected to adjust downward in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the TDI market price dropped this week, with the average price in East China at 13166.67 yuan / ton, down 5.95% compared with last weekend’s 14000.00 yuan / ton, and 13.51% higher than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis

During the week, the domestic TDI market was weak, and the market atmosphere was empty. At the beginning of the week, the market was mainly wait-and-see, and the industry was cautious. The market center of gravity shifted downward, and the downstream purchase on demand was weak. In terms of polyether price, the pressure of downstream sponge factories is greater, most of the manufacturers mainly purchase on demand, and the enthusiasm of buying has not improved, so the purchase of TDI is limited. As of the 29th, TDI domestic goods in East China market were quoted at 12500-12800 yuan / ton, and those in Shanghai were about 13000 yuan / ton.

This week, the market of toluene fluctuated, and the price rose slightly. As of the 29th, the domestic average price was about 3580 yuan / T, and the port inventory of toluene decreased slightly, but the pressure to remove the warehouse was still under. The downstream demand was general and the market supply was surplus. It is expected that the domestic toluene market would continue to fluctuate in the future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the data analysis of the business agency: at present, the domestic TDI market is weak, and the market mentality is empty. The downstream enters the off-season. In the later stage, the TDI market may be weak, and pay attention to the news of the downstream market.

Commodity index: on November 30, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 94.05, up 0.38 point compared with yesterday, 13.72% lower than 109.01 point (2019-08-28), and 11.54% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the monitoring data, in November, the market of polyaluminum chloride showed an overall upward trend. As one of the main monitoring specifications, polyaluminum chloride with a content of more than 28%, the lowest mainstream price was 1682.86 yuan / ton in the first ten days of this month, and the highest price was about 1740 yuan / ton at the end of November, with an increase of 3.4%, which was the highest price of polyaluminum chloride since 2020. Among them, on the basis of the price increase of raw materials hydrochloric acid and calcium powder in the first two months and the price rise of fuel and natural gas used in production process, this month is superimposed with the influence factors of gradual shortage of supply due to the shutdown of manufacturers under the requirements of environmental protection policies in the heating season. The price of polyaluminum chloride continues to rise in the middle and late ten days, and the rise rate of some manufacturers in Henan Province is about 300 yuan / ton.

Raw material cost: hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the North China area reported 307 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, fluctuated for many times in the month, and received 315 yuan / ton at the end of the month. As for Henan, one of the main production areas of water treatment enterprises, the local polyaluminum chloride manufacturers reported that the price of hydrochloric acid in November continued to rise on the basis of September October’s rise. Calcium powder: according to traders, the price increase of raw material calcium powder is mainly concentrated in September, with an increase of about 80 yuan / ton. The price of calcium powder has not changed much this month.

Natural gas is used in the production of polyaluminum chloride. The price of natural gas rose sharply at the time of gold, silver and ten. The price of natural gas rebounded rapidly after the shock and fall in November. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the temperature has dropped sharply in recent days, the demand for urban fuel has increased, the supply in some areas is tight, the downstream replenishment sentiment has increased, the demand is getting better, the market trading atmosphere has improved, the manufacturers’ shipment situation has improved, and the confidence in bidding has been strengthened. In addition, the price of liquefied natural gas has been boosted by many advantages. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be stronger in the short term, and the price will continue Continued to rise. Among them, the mainstream price of LNG was 2406.67 yuan / ton in early September and 3923.33 yuan / ton at the end of November, with an increase of 63% in March. For polyaluminum enterprises with such a big increase, the pressure will increase greatly, and the ex factory price of polyaluminum will inevitably rise.

Downstream demand: the heating season starts to meet strict inspection requirements, and the manufacturers stop production, resulting in tight supply of goods. This month is more than October, becoming the best month in 2020.

Industry: from September to the end of the year, the water treatment industry as a whole is in a good time. The market rise is mainly subject to the rising pressure of the cost side, the coming of the heating season and the shutdown and downstream demand caused by the pressure of environmental protection. The market is generally optimistic about the market situation of the water treatment industry in the heating season. In fact, the market rose sharply this month, which is indeed the best time in 2020.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, on the basis of heating season, the continuous rise of raw material cost and the shortage of supply caused by shutdown have caused the price rise of polyaluminum chloride. As for the future market, we believe that the above factors will continue to support the future market, and polyaluminum chloride will still have sufficient upward momentum in December.

1、 Price trend

As of November 27, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was around 2650 yuan / ton, up 8.16% from the beginning of the week and 32.5% from the beginning of the month.

At present, the trichloromethane market in Shandong is stable and upward. Some enterprises’ negative pressure has led to a slight decline in market supply. The overall inventory pressure of the market is not big, and the enterprises have a good intention to push forward. The demand of downstream and traders has increased slightly, and the chloroform Market is running steadily. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 2650-2750 yuan / ton, that of Jiangxi Province is about 2350 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 2650 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, due to the weather in some parts of the methanol market, there is no quotation for the shutdown and overhaul of the units. The inventory of production enterprises is not high, and the attitude of the industry is mostly optimistic. At present, the profits of traders are fair, and it is expected that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate in the short term; the liquid chlorine market will continue to remain high, and the market shipment will slow down, but the performance of downstream rigid demand will remain firm. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 1700-1800 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream market, the current trend of refrigerant market is stable, raw materials are rising, and the demand of automobile industry entering the stock stage is improved, which has boosted the market. However, the demand is not large, and the export side is difficult to improve, showing a weak demand situation. In addition, the release of new production capacity, the inventory increases, and the game between supply and demand; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry starts smoothly, and supports chloroform generally.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the spot supply of chloroform in the domestic market has declined slightly, stimulating the demand of downstream and traders, and the overall purchasing has increased. The inventory pressure of chloroform enterprises is not big. It is expected that the price of chloroform will be stable in a short period of time. Pay attention to the change of liquid chlorine price of raw materials.

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on November 26 was 44.15, which was 0.97 points lower than yesterday, 56.72% lower than 102.01 points (2014-01-09), and 47.22% higher than 29.99 points, the lowest point on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

Price rise and fall of domestic main hydrobenzene markets from November 23 to 27 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, price on 23rd, price on 27th, up and down every week

In East China, 4150-42504100-4200, – 50

In Shandong Province, 4000-41003750-3850, – 250

This week (November 23-27), the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong Province mainly fell, with 4050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3800 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 250 yuan / ton.

Summary of Sinopec’s pure benzene price adjustment in November 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

November 4, 3750, + 150

November 10, 3850, + 100

November 12, 4000, + 150

November 16, 4200, + 200

November 24, 4000, – 200

November 26, 4200, + 200

In November 2020, Sinopec’s pure benzene price increased five times and decreased once, with a cumulative increase of 600 yuan / ton. As of the 30th, all refineries under Sinopec had implemented the unified implementation of 4200 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of hydrogenated benzene followed the trend of pure benzene, and the overall decline in Shandong was dominated. This week, the market price of pure benzene followed the trend of crude oil, and the price first fell and then rose. So far, the inventory of pure benzene was still high, maintained at about 250000 tons. Generally speaking, the operating rate of downstream was improved, mainly due to the increase of aniline operating rate. The mainstream negotiation price of pure benzene in Shandong was around 3950 yuan / ton, which was higher than that The market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong area fell with the decrease of 300 yuan / ton.

 
Recently, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has been stable at about 65%, which is on the rise as a whole. Some enterprises that shut down in the early stage started construction this month, especially in Northeast China.

In terms of aftermarket, the business agency believes that at present, the price of pure benzene fluctuates frequently and the port inventory is still high. However, the crude oil market is still performing well, and the external price of pure benzene is still high, which has certain support for the market. Market participants are generally optimistic about the future market, and the future market focuses on the price trend of pure benzene downstream products and the external fluctuation of pure benzene.