Commodity index: on June 28, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.35, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.53% compared with the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and increased by 6.59% compared with the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)
Data show that since the second quarter, the trend of domestic polyacrylamide has experienced a short-term upward trend, then a stable high, and then a small fluctuation. In the first and middle of April, the water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan continued to stop production due to the environmental protection inspection started in the middle of March, and went through the repeated process of stopping production and resuming production intermittently. Finally, they officially resumed production in the last ten days of April, and the market in the first half of the month showed a slight upward trend. On May 1, the domestic cationic price of polyacrylamide (molecular weight 12 million, ionicity 10-30) was 15433.33 yuan / ton, and on May 15, the mainstream price was 15383.33 yuan / ton. On May 16, the price was reduced by 3.4% to 14860 yuan / ton, and then it was reduced to 14383.33 yuan / ton on May 31. In June, the price fluctuation range of polyacrylamide was no more than 1%, showing the process of leveling first, then going up again. On the 28th, the monthly increase was only 0.53%. To sum up, since the second quarter, polyacrylamide has decreased by about 4.34% in general, especially in the second half of May. The highest price in this quarter is 15433.33 yuan / ton, the lowest price is 14300 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude is 7.34%.
Upstream raw material: in the second quarter, the domestic mainstream market price of raw material acrylonitrile continued to decline, and the mainstream market price in early April stabilized at about 14400 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a downward rate of 10%. In May, after the end of the May Day holiday, there was a short-term uptrend first, and then a continuous downward shock. On the 25th, there was a rebound of about 150 yuan / ton, and then it stabilized. Until the 31st, it increased by 50-100 yuan / ton again. The current market mainstream quotation is about 14100-14300 yuan / ton. In June, the market of acrylonitrile rose rapidly, then fluctuated, weakened slightly, and then remained stable. The mainstream price on the 1st was about 14800 yuan / ton, the highest price on the 10th was 15040 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price at the end of the month was about 14600-14790 yuan / ton, up 2.14% so far. Overall, acrylonitrile showed a downward trend in April and may, with a downward trend of about 13%; In the first half of June, the attitude of rapid rise, or 3.87%, declined slightly in the second half, or 1.47%.
Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In April, the LPG civil market continued to rise sharply, and the price kept rising in the first half of the month, especially after the Qingming Festival holiday; However, in late April, the price of liquefied petroleum gas for civilian use showed a “slide” market, and remained stable after a 5-6% drop. In May, the LPG market experienced twists and turns, showing an overall upward trend; According to the data monitoring of the business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on May 5 was 4066.67 yuan / ton, and on March 31 was 4143.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 156.66 yuan / ton. In fact, the highest price in May was 4306.67 yuan / ton, and the lowest price was 4133.33 yuan / ton, with a monthly maximum amplitude of 4.02%. In June, at the beginning of the month, 4143.33 yuan / ton, the rise of international crude oil led Shandong civil gas market to stop falling and go up. After the Dragon Boat Festival, Shandong civil gas market was supported by good news and went up as a whole, but the price rise did not continue. Weak terminal demand brought obvious constraints to the market, and the upward route was blocked again. As of the 28th, the mainstream price of Shandong civil gas market was 4266.67 yuan / ton. In the second quarter, the domestic mainstream quotation of LPG fluctuated greatly, with the highest price of 4410 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 4000 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of 10.25%.
Downstream demand: in this quarter, the environmental protection shutdown period of the previous quarter was extended, the inventory was consumed, and the price rose slightly. However, after the resumption of production, the production of the enterprise recovered, the inventory increased rapidly, and the change of downstream demand was still tepid, the polyacrylamide inventory accumulated, and the demand was weak, which played a reverse role on the market, And this quarter polyacrylamide has a small rise, mainly affected by changes in raw material prices. During the three months of this quarter, although some manufacturers occasionally stopped production, the overall inventory was sufficient, the demand was general, and the polyacrylamide market was generally weak.
Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, since the second quarter, the factory has started to return to normal, the supply of goods is sufficient, the demand has not changed significantly, and the market has no action. The only thing worth noting is that due to the sharp rise of crude oil in this quarter, the downstream industry chain rose, and the price of propylene also went up; As the downstream of propylene, the price of acrylonitrile has increased to a certain extent, but because of its weak downstream promotion, the upward range is small and the sustainability is not strong; As the downstream of acrylonitrile, the joint action of polyacrylamide weakened again, and the downstream demand was not strong, which led to the overall weak price; At the same time, the role of LPG price changes has not been correctly reflected. Generally speaking, since the second quarter, the polyacrylamide market is weak and volatile, and there will be no obvious changes in the short term; However, if crude oil continues to rise significantly, over time, the polyacrylamide market as an indirect downstream may be reflected.
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