According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market of hydrogen peroxide began to fall from the cliff in November after experiencing the golden September and silver October. The price continued to fall, falling continuously. From the highest price of 1450 yuan / ton in October, it has dropped by more than 200 yuan / ton. As of November 9, the price of hydrogen peroxide has dropped to 1283 yuan / ton, down 11.49% from the beginning of November.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January to October in 2020, it can be seen that the price of hydrogen peroxide in the first 10 months is still falling more or less, and the decrease in February and April is larger than 10%, and the decline in March, may and August is relatively small. Prices rose mainly in January and June, September and October, with the largest increase of more than 30% in June.

After June, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to decline by nearly 9% in July. The decline slowed down in August, with the price falling by about 2%. In September, hydrogen peroxide rose by 15%. In October, hydrogen peroxide rose more than 35%, more than 30% in June, ushering in the highest point in the first ten months.

On November 9, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and caprolactam was 191.91, which was 14.41 points lower than yesterday, 12.42% lower than 219.12 points (October 27, 2020), and 113.59% higher than 89.85 points, the lowest point on January 29, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from January 1, 2019 to the present)

In October, caprolactam inventory decreased and supply decreased. In addition to the rise of raw material pure benzene, the downstream demand for caprolactam increased, and the upstream and downstream support was strong, and the price of caprolactam rose. Since November, raw material pure benzene inventory consumption is slow, there is still pressure, the downstream follow-up is insufficient, enthusiasm is weakened. Some enterprises restart the plant, the supply of caprolactam increases, the market is weak, the enthusiasm for hydrogen peroxide purchasing decreases, and the hydrogen peroxide Market is suppressed.

On November 9, the specific price index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper was 191.15, which was 12.92 points lower than yesterday, 22.30% lower than 246.00 points (October 21, 2019), and 77.75% higher than 107.54 points, the lowest point on January 29, 2019. (Note: the period refers to the period from January 1, 2017 to the present)

In October, corrugated paper was driven by the stock market of 201, and the price of corrugated paper rose all the way, stimulating the market of hydrogen peroxide to go up. In November, the stock market of paper mills ended, the corrugated paper market continued to be stable, the price rise was weak, the demand for hydrogen peroxide purchasing became weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market dropped sharply.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of the business agency, believes that: the golden age of hydrogen peroxide has passed, the terminal demand has declined, the manufacturers have finished the maintenance, the supply has increased, the market has been falling continuously, and the driving force of the future market is still insufficient.

1、 Price trend

As of November 8, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 15166.67 yuan / ton, down 1.09% from the beginning of the week, 2.57% month on month, and 33.09% lower than the beginning of the week.

2、 Market analysis

Refrigerant R134a market temporarily stable operation this week. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak, the price trend is low, the price of trichloroethylene is temporarily stable, and the supporting force of cost is acceptable. The terminal has not improved greatly, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, but the demand has not improved significantly. At the same time, the on-site supply is abundant, the starting load of the manufacturers is on the high side, the shipment is under pressure, and the price is reduced. Some enterprises have the phenomenon of hanging upside down, and the market is stable and weak. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of November 8, the price of the mainstream manufacturers in the refrigerant R134a market is about 15000-16000 yuan / ton The price is low.

In terms of raw materials, affected by negative factors in various aspects, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price remains low. In addition, the demand for downstream refrigerant industry has not improved significantly, the upstream fluorite price remains low, and the downstream refrigerant product price is not improved. The business community thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may remain low.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business agency, the cost support of refrigerant R134a is acceptable, the supply is sufficient, the demand continues to be soft, and the overall transaction atmosphere is general. It is expected that the R134a market will be stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8350 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.38%.

In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend remains low. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 7700-8300 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is weak. The negative factors of hydrofluoric acid price maintaining low include the following aspects:

First, the market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite remained low. As of the end of the week, the domestic fluorite price was 2622.22 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was sufficient, and the on-site shipment was not positive, so the price of fluorite remained low. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations was 2500-2700 yuan / ton. The low price of fluorite in the market was a negative effect on the hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was low.

Second: the domestic refrigerant market is low this week. The sales market of the automobile industry is not good recently. The demand for the refrigerant is still weak. The market is hard to find. The trend of the refrigerant industry is general. The prices of various types of refrigerants continue to be low. Manufacturers are under pressure to ship, and the sales pressure is increasing. The raw material hydrofluoric acid maintains a weak stability, the support force is general, and the refrigerant export volume is expected The output of downstream air conditioning is low, and the demand is scarce. The off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price reduction shipment is looking for good. On the whole, the refrigerant market is hard to find good factors, the price continues to be low or will become normal, and the transaction center of gravity remains low. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price is falling down. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual transaction center is low. Some traders are looking for positive shipment, and the quotation is slightly lower than the manufacturer’s factory price. There is a phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiation is 12500-15500 yuan / ton. The domestic R134a market has increased, but the automobile market industry continues to be depressed and the transaction atmosphere is light. There are plenty of goods in the market, and there are new production capacity coming into the market in the future market. The competition is fierce. The supply side gradually forms a negative situation. The price is depressed and the downstream demand is not improved. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Third, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, the hydrofluoric acid on-site devices operate stably, and the hydrofluoric acid market price remains low. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 7700-8200 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 7700-8500 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. Some manufacturers report that hydrofluoric acid exists in the cracks, and most of them have serious losses and the stock market is not good.

On the whole, affected by various negative factors, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price remains low. In addition, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry has not improved significantly, the upstream fluorite price remains low, and the downstream refrigerant product price is not improved. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may remain low.

On November 4, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $39.15/barrel, up $1.49 or 3.95%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.23/barrel, up $1.52 or 3.83%. US oil rose nearly 4% on Wednesday, mainly due to the rapid rise in oil prices and the sharp drop in US crude oil inventories after US President trump declared victory in the process of election results not yet produced.

Oil prices rose sharply in the session on Wednesday, mainly due to a public speech by the trump White House, who claimed that he had won the US presidential election, while there were still millions of votes to be counted and the final results were still not available. The market expected that Trump’s ruling policy would be favorable to oil prices, so it reacted quickly and prices rose sharply. It mainly takes into account Trump’s sanctions against Iran and his positive attitude towards the implementation of OPEC + production reduction.

In addition, the US commercial crude oil inventory data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday also made a significant positive impact on oil prices. US crude oil inventories fell sharply last week, contrary to market expectations. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell 7.998 million barrels to 48442.9 million barrels in the week of October 30, after the market had expected an increase of 890000 barrels. Meanwhile, the net import of crude oil increased by 560000 B / d. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.541 million barrels to 276.65 million barrels. The market had previously estimated a decrease of 871000 barrels. Distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, fell 1.584 million barrels to 154644 million barrels, after a market forecast of 2 million barrels. Crude oil stocks fell sharply, mainly due to the reduction of production in the Gulf of Mexico caused by the hurricane. The decline in crude oil inventories and the rise in gasoline inventories are mainly related to the increase in processing capacity of refineries in the United States. According to EIA, the crude oil processing capacity of refineries increased by 164 thousand barrels / day last week, and the capacity utilization rate of refineries increased by 0.7 percentage points to 75.3%. On the whole, both the decline of crude oil inventory and the increase of refinery production in the United States on the premise of increasing net crude oil imports indicate that the economy is recovering slowly, bringing a certain boost effect to the market.

However, with the proliferation of new cases in Europe and the re implementation of blockade measures in some countries, such as France, the market may worry about the uncertainty of the future fuel demand outlook. Previously, the extension of OPEC + release and the advantages of the existing production reduction scale have been digested. In the medium and long term, all oil prices are still suppressed by the supply and demand side. In the short term, the US election is still pending, and Trump’s uncertainty may bring uncertainty to the oil market, which will increase the volatility of oil prices in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the continuous high price of liquid chlorine for raw materials, the market of chloroform in Shandong has risen sharply. As of November 4, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was about 2300 yuan / ton, up 15% compared with the beginning of the month and 21.05% higher than the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Jinling, Shandong Province: 440000 tons / year, 50%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year normal

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

In recent years, the domestic chloroform market continued to rise, mainly due to the rising price of raw material liquid chlorine. At present, the production cost of chloroform enterprises in Shandong is under pressure, and the overall demand of downstream market is flat, so the enterprises are forced to reduce the operating load, and the overall operation of the industry is less than 60%. As the inventory of enterprises is in the acceptable range, the intention of raising prices is good. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 2300 yuan / ton, that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2350 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 2650 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic methanol market has been adjusted in a volatile way, with the current price of about 1902 yuan / ton. Some manufacturers continue to increase the ex factory quotation. Driven by the current futures, the international crude oil price rebounds, the equipment maintenance of production enterprises, low inventory, and the recovery of downstream demand and other factors are favorable. The favorable factors will remain in a short time, and traders are full of bullish mentality. Recently, the liquid chlorine market continues to rise, and the supply in Shandong is tight due to the impact of enterprise maintenance The price of liquid chlorine is high and firm, and the surrounding market is following the trend. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 1800-2000 yuan / ton.

In the downstream market, the market of refrigerants is running weakly and steadily, and the price is falling steadily. Downstream major air-conditioning manufacturers started low, the demand was scarce, the demand for foaming agent decreased, and the orders were not many, so the demand side was difficult to boost the market. The hydrofluoric acid industry in the raw material surface was stable, and there was no good signal. Although the quota decreased at the end of the year, the market was back to the buyer’s leading position, and the short-term market was still weak; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started flat, and there was insufficient support for chloroform.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the domestic chloroform market is running stably for the time being. Enterprises are not starting high. The overall supply and demand of the industry are weak. The downstream market is mainly wait-and-see. In the future, we need to pay attention to the raw material market. It is expected that the price of chloroform will remain stable in a short period of time.