Recently, the domestic liquid ammonia market has continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business society, after the sharp rise in May, the liquid ammonia has been consolidating at a high level from June to early July. Since mid July, the liquid ammonia market has started again and continued to rise, with a strong increase. According to the monitoring of the business society, the liquid ammonia has increased by 6.72% in the past two weeks (July 12-22). At present, the price range of Shandong market is 4500-4800 yuan / ton, and some quotations have broken through the 4800 mark, reaching the highest level in history. The soaring price of liquid ammonia is the result of the dual effects of higher cost and tight supply and demand.
With the increase of market inflation expectation, as domestic commodities usher in a new round of rising cycle, especially the upstream coal of liquid ammonia, the rise is stronger. Good cost support is obvious. In addition, the supply of liquid ammonia continues to be tight. At present, it is still affected by the low operation rate of domestic devices and the excessive number of maintenance devices, and the supply has decreased significantly, which leads to the shortage of supply in the market and the price of liquid ammonia has gone up sharply due to factors such as dealers’ speculation.
On the cost side, the domestic coal market is booming. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of July 22, the price of steam coal rose by 7.54% in July. The price has broken through the high point of may in the last round of rise, rising by more than 80% compared with the same period last year（ (see above)
On the supply side, tight supply is the direct cause of the rise in the price of liquid ammonia. The operating rate of ammonia enterprises is declining, and routine maintenance and device failures occur frequently in many regions of China. According to statistics, in July, several sets of devices were stopped in Lianghu, northwest and Hebei. In the last two weeks, large plants in Shandong and Hebei have entered the maintenance period. The maintenance period generally has a long time span of nearly one month, which has a great impact on the production capacity. The market has gradually spread from the shortage of local supply at the beginning of this month to the shortage of ammonia in many regions of China.
From the downstream perspective, urea has been fluctuating at a high level since June. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of urea has also risen in the past two weeks, with an increase of 2.21%, 67.81% over the same period last year. The maintenance of urea plant is still the same. Recently, the production reduction and resumption of urea enterprises are staggered, and the start-up recovery is slow. The daily output is about 160000 tons, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. Superimposed printing mark landing, domestic market mentality has been boosted.
In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, and the agricultural demand is fair; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. According to the monitoring of business news agency, monoammonium phosphate has also been on the rise in the past two weeks. At present, it has reached the stage peak. In the last two weeks (July 12-22), it has increased by 2.21% so far.
In the future, the tight supply of domestic ammonia is difficult to solve in the short term. In addition, with the cost support brought by the high price of upstream raw materials, the price of liquid ammonia may remain high, which does not rule out the possibility of continuing to rise.
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