The price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 8th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 7287.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69% compared to April 1st isobutyraldehyde price of 7566.67 yuan/ton. Cost reduction and weak demand have increased the pressure on the price of isobutyraldehyde, leading to a volatile decline in isobutyraldehyde prices this week.

The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 8th, the price of propylene was 6820.60 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.41% compared to the price of 6848.60 yuan/ton on April 1st. This week, the propylene manufacturer’s equipment restarted, and the supply of propylene was sufficient. Downstream rigid demand purchases were made, and the transaction situation of propylene was average. The price of propylene slightly decreased this week, but the support for the rise of propylene in the future is insufficient.

Downstream demand weakening

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 8th, the price of new pentanediol was 9966.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.92% compared to the price of 10266.67 yuan/ton on April 1st. This week, the price of neopentyl glycol has fallen, some factories have offered discounts for sales, and the operating load of neopentyl glycol manufacturers has decreased. Downstream demand for neopentyl glycol has weakened, resulting in poor transactions in the neopentyl glycol market and significant downward pressure on neopentyl glycol.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde industry analyst believes that in terms of raw materials, the price of propylene has slightly decreased, and the cost support for isobutyraldehyde has decreased. However, as crude oil prices continue to rise, the price of propylene has rebounded, providing some upward support for the cost of isobutyraldehyde; In terms of demand, the market for new pentanediol is weak, and the price of new pentanediol continues to decline. Manufacturers are offering more discounts for sales, and their production has decreased. The demand for isobutyraldehyde is weak, and the downward pressure on isobutyraldehyde is increasing. Overall, isobutyraldehyde has some upward support, but weak demand continues, and there is significant downward pressure on isobutyraldehyde. It is expected that isobutyraldehyde prices will fluctuate and consolidate weakly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 7th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 24833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.76% from the beginning of the month’s price of 24166.67 yuan/ton, and a 19.20% increase from the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 7th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 31000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from the beginning of the month’s price of 30666.67 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 21.57% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In late March, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid rose again, while the overall price of trichloromethane remained stable and continued to rise. In addition, with the arrival of the peak season for refrigerant demand, supported by costs and demand, manufacturers raised the factory price of R22 again in April, driving the domestic R22 market price to continue to rise.

Starting from late March, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices have significantly increased, while trichloroethylene prices have slightly increased. The continuous increase in raw material costs has provided strong support for domestic R134a prices. In addition, downstream active stocking has led to a slight increase in factory prices by domestic manufacturers in April, driving up domestic R134a prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, with the dual support of cost and demand, it is expected that domestic R22 and R134a prices will continue to remain strong in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 3rd, the average price of white oil in the market was 8400 yuan/ton, and on March 28th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8400 yuan/ton, indicating stable price operation.

In terms of cost

This week, crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, with insufficient positive market news.

In terms of supply and demand

Some large manufacturers of light white oil have raised prices for individual products, and overall product prices remain stable. Downstream manufacturers generally restock.

Future Market Forecast

There is no positive support in the pre holiday news, but based on some large factories raising their prices, it is expected that the white oil market will remain stable and have a downward trend in the near future.

According to the market analysis system of Shengyishe, after falling to its lowest point at the end of March, n-butanal experienced a slight rebound in early April. As of April 2, the reference price of Shengyishe’s n-butanal was 8040 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton from 8003 yuan/ton on March 29.

In terms of raw material propylene, propylene has stopped falling and the market has rebounded. The market performance is still good, and the atmosphere on the market is warm. The factory’s firm offer provides support for the price of n-butanal.

In terms of downstream n-butanol, although the n-butanol market experienced a recovery in late March, the recovery momentum was not significant compared to the continuous deep decline in early March. The current trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is still good, and downstream continued to purchase on demand and buy on dips.

According to data analysts from Business Society, the favorable raw material side supports the cessation of decline in the butyraldehyde market, while downstream markets gradually recover. In the short term, the domestic butyraldehyde market will mainly adjust and operate within a certain range.

Zinc prices rose first and then fell in March

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 1st, the price of zinc was 20832 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased compared to March 1st’s zinc price of 20586 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.19%; Compared to March 14th, the zinc price of 21434 yuan/ton decreased by 2.81%. The production of zinc mines has decreased, the concentration of zinc concentrate has decreased, and the supply of zinc in March has decreased. The macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, and the support for the increase in zinc prices is insufficient. In March, zinc prices first rose and then fell.

The supply of zinc in the market is decreasing

According to foreign news on March 6th, South Korea’s Young Poong Corp stated that it has reduced the production of its Seokpo zinc smelter by one-fifth. The Seokpo zinc smelter produces 400000 tons annually and is the sixth largest zinc smelter in the world. A large-scale production reduction or complete closure will reduce the expected surplus of 300000 tons this year, leading to a shortage in the zinc market. Expected reduction in zinc supply in the market.

Luoping Zinc Electric announced that on March 7, 2024, the company received a production shutdown notice from the Luoping County Emergency Management Bureau. According to the production suspension notice, the company’s Fule Lead Zinc Mine will cease all production activities from today onwards. In addition to the shutdown of Fule Lead Zinc Mine, other mines of Luoping Zinc Power are also in a state of shutdown. Industry insiders have pointed out that due to the increasingly strict regulatory environment, the resumption of production at the Luoping Zinc Electricity Mine may take more than a year for the relevant mines to complete. In addition to Luoping Zinc Power, there are plans for smelter maintenance and production reduction in regions such as Hunan, Sichuan, Guangxi, Yunnan, Liaoning, and Gansu, which are expected to affect a reduction of nearly 30000 tons. Zinc smelters have reduced production and increased demand, leading to a decrease in zinc supply in the market.

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of zinc concentrate in China in January 2024 was 395900 tons, a decrease of 10.4% month on month and 8.18% year-on-year. In February 2024, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 251200 tons, a decrease of 36.56% month on month and 46.69% year-on-year. The cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate from January to February 2024 was 647100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.28%. The import volume of zinc concentrate has decreased, and the supply of zinc concentrate is tight. The processing cost of zinc concentrate decreased in March, and the supply of zinc in the market was tight.

The demand growth in the zinc market is lower than expected

China has entered the traditional consumption peak season of “gold, silver, and four”, with expected recovery in demand, boosting the rebound of non-ferrous metals. During the two sessions, the market waited for positive news, and overall macroeconomic sentiment rebounded. The domestic macroeconomic situation was positive, while the non-ferrous metal market was positive.

During the Two Sessions, environmental protection in the north has imposed production restrictions, and galvanized processing enterprises have reduced production significantly. The current production restrictions have not yet ended, and the consumer recovery is not as expected. Downstream sentiment towards accepting goods is not good, and there is no significant improvement in spot trading. The downstream production of zinc in the Tianjin market is limited by environmental protection, and the order volume is relatively poor, resulting in insufficient willingness to purchase zinc ingots; The transaction volume of zinc ingots in the Foshan market is also very low. Overall, the environmental impact has led to poor downstream production of zinc and lower than expected demand in the zinc market.

The Swiss central bank announced a 25 basis point rate cut and adjusted the benchmark interest rate from 1.75% to 1.5%. The sudden shift in monetary policy by the Swiss central bank may lead to a series of chain reactions. The US PMI data released by S&P Global and Research shows that the initial value of Markit’s manufacturing PMI in March was 52.5, and the initial value of Markit’s comprehensive PMI in March was 52.2. The US manufacturing business activity in March showed strong performance, setting the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. In the past two weeks since mid March, the US dollar index has continued to rise, with macroeconomic recovery. However, inflationary pressure still exists, and the macroeconomic weakness in the zinc market remains. The demand growth in the zinc market is not satisfactory.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, in terms of supply, there were many reports of zinc mines and zinc smelters shutting down and reducing production in the international and domestic markets in March, leading to a significant decrease in zinc supply and stimulating an increase in zinc prices; However, in terms of demand, March was originally the traditional peak season for consumption, but during the Chinese People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, northern environmental protection limited production. In addition, the recovery of enterprises after the conference was less than expected, and the macroeconomic recovery in the international market was less than expected, resulting in poor demand growth in the zinc market. In the future, the domestic zinc market is accumulating reserves, and the environmental protection restrictions on production in the zinc market are gradually slowing down. The supply and demand expectations for zinc in the market are increasing. However, as the Qingming Festival approaches, the growth of demand for zinc in the market is limited, and it is expected that zinc prices will be weak and volatile in the future.