Market situation:
The core feature of the pre acrylic acid market is the “low-level consolidation” caused by “average demand follow-up”. Data shows that as of October 29th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.99% compared to the beginning of this month (6700.00 yuan/ton). This price level is in the mid to low range of the year, indicating that the market lacks upward momentum and the overall trading atmosphere is light.
Industry giants have lowered their acrylic acid quotations in North China to 6200 yuan/ton, and have cumulatively lowered them by 350 yuan/ton in the past two days. The proactive price reduction behavior of leading enterprises not only directly lowers the market center of gravity, but also conveys a clear bearish expectation to the market, exacerbating the sales pressure of other manufacturers and the pessimistic sentiment of the market.
Cost side:
The key bearish factors in the market come from upstream. The price of raw material propylene has declined. As of October 29th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6150.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6% compared to the beginning of this month (6543.25 yuan/ton). As the main cost component of acrylic acid, the weakening of its price has led to a collapse in the cost support of acrylic acid at the production end, opening up space for price decline.
Demand side:
Downstream procurement strategy shift: Under the market mentality of buying up instead of buying down, downstream users hold bearish expectations for future prices. Therefore, they generally adopt the “essential procurement” strategy, which only purchases the amount necessary to maintain current production, rather than hoarding a large amount of goods, which makes it difficult for the overall market transaction volume to increase.
Poor transmission of terminal demand: The main downstream areas of acrylic acid, such as butyl acrylate, may also experience weak terminal demand in their own industries, such as coatings, textiles, adhesives, etc. The downturn in the end consumer market will propagate upwards along the industrial chain, ultimately leading to a decline in demand for acrylic acid.
Continuous supply pressure: At the same time, the operating rate of major production enterprises’ equipment remains stable, and the market supply of goods is sufficient. In the absence of strong demand, stable supply becomes inventory pressure, forcing companies to engage in price competition in order to compete for limited orders.
Future prospects
Overall, without significant positive stimuli, the acrylic acid market is likely to continue its weak consolidation pattern in the short term.
Negative factors: The weakness of propylene on the cost side is difficult to reverse in the short term, while the weak trend of downstream demand is expected to continue, which will continue to suppress market prices.
Potential variables: It is necessary to closely monitor whether there are unexpected shutdowns and maintenance of large production facilities, or whether there are unexpected macro policies introduced to stimulate downstream industries. These factors may change the supply and demand structure in the short term, triggering market fluctuations.
In summary, the current acrylic acid market is in a typical cycle dominated by “weak demand”, with cost collapse and bearish sentiment exacerbating this process. The recovery of the market ultimately depends on substantial improvement in downstream consumer demand.
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