According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of polyester staple fiber first fell and then rose in October. As of October 30th, the average market price of polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6356 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.94% from the beginning of the month.
The market price of polyester staple fiber continues to decline after the holiday. The weak macro caused by the main tariff issue, as well as the continuous negative sentiment of weak cost and weak demand due to the commissioning of PTA new facilities, have led to a downward shift in the price center of polyester staple fiber. In the second half of the year, with the rebound of low oil prices, the overall sentiment of costs and commodities rebounded, and downstream procurement increased during the traditional peak season, which boosted the price of polyester staple fibers.
As of October 29th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $60.48 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $64.92 per barrel. OPEC is highly likely to maintain increased production in December, and the supply side will continue to be loose. Without significant improvement on the demand side, the supply-demand pattern is imbalanced. There has been no new progress in the geopolitical situation, so the support given to oil prices is limited.
The domestic PTA market in October showed a trend of first falling and then rising. As of October 30th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4552 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93% from the beginning of the month. The main factories in Northeast China have restarted their pre maintenance equipment, and the industry’s operating rate is currently around 78%. Next, the new PTA production capacity of 2.7 million tons in East China has been tested and discharged, and overall PTA production will continue to increase. In addition, if PTA companies actively reduce production under low processing fees, PTA may not accumulate inventory in November and December, which will push up the PTA market. But if the reduction in production is limited, it still cannot change the current pattern of sufficient supply.
With the rise in costs driving up the prices of yarn factories, but with limited demand follow-up, the prices have stabilized after the increase. After mid October, with the combination of cold weather and Double Eleven promotions, the demand for winter fabrics increased, and the end weaving orders improved. The enthusiasm of textile enterprises to replenish raw materials increased, and the inventory pressure of downstream yarn factories eased. Overall, the quality of “Silver Ten” is insufficient, and its seasonal strength is highly limited. Most of them focus on digesting raw materials and stocking up in the early stage, while purchasing to maintain essential needs.
Business analysts believe that in the short term, cost support and phased improvement in demand will boost the price of polyester staple fiber, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will show a strong and volatile pattern. But with the new PTA plant put into operation and the early maintenance equipment gradually restored, the cost support will weaken. In addition, the peak demand season is also coming to an end, which limits the upward space of polyester staple fiber prices. We still need to pay attention to price fluctuations on the cost side and terminal demand in the future.
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