Recently (1.25-1.31), the market for dichloromethane has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 31, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2277 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% from 2307 yuan/ton on the 25th. The price of raw material methanol has fluctuated lower, the price range of liquid chlorine has been consolidated, and the cost support for dichloromethane is weak; The cautious demand for downstream goods before the holiday is gradually weakening, and the inventory of enterprises has slightly increased, but the overall pressure is still acceptable. The dichloromethane market is relatively weak and consolidating, with the mainstream factory price of dichloromethane loose water in Shandong region around 2230-2350 yuan/ton as of January 31.

Recently (1.25-1.31), the domestic supply of methane chlorides has slightly increased.

Recently (1.25-1.31), the price of raw material methanol has slightly decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine has stabilized at a low level. The cost support for dichloromethane is weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the spot price of methanol was 2580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% from 2615 yuan/ton on the 25th. As of January 31st, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 250 yuan/ton, which is lower than the previous price.

As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream construction is stable, and demand gradually decreases after stocking, weakening support for dichloromethane.

Market forecast: According to data analysts from Shengyishe Methane Chlorides, the demand for dichloromethane is weak in the short term, with little pressure on the supply side and fluctuating costs. Overall, it is expected that the range of dichloromethane market will be mainly adjusted before the holiday.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the spot price of styrene in Shandong increased in January. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8560.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8810.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.92%. The current price has increased by 2.44% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene increased in January. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past three months, with little fluctuation in the market this month. The main reason for the increase is the continuous rise in international oil prices, strong cost support, maintenance of styrene plants, temporary reduction in supply, early stocking of some downstream goods near the Spring Festival, good spot transactions of styrene, and a slight upward trend in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene increased in January, with a price of 7222 yuan/ton on December 1st; On December 30th, the price was 7950 yuan/ton. Recently, negotiations for pure benzene in East China have been active, with prices rising and traders actively shipping at high prices. Shandong Refinery has good transactions and inventory levels continue to be low.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream sectors of styrene saw a slight increase in January. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS was 9600 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of PS was 9633 yuan/ton. There is still support on the cost side, and demand has not met expectations. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 8950-10350 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 9500-10550 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of EPS ordinary materials fluctuated and increased in January. The average quote for EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of the month was 10000.00 yuan/ton, and the average price for EPS ordinary materials at the end of the month was 10160.00 yuan/ton. In January, domestic EPS prices were affected by rising costs and are expected to follow a narrow upward trend in the domestic EPS market.

The domestic ABS market rose in January. Recently, the overall performance of ABS upstream materials has been relatively strong, providing increased support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant has seen a narrow decline in production, further reducing supply pressure. On the demand side, consumption is average, and merchants are reporting higher due to supply contraction and upstream rise. The trading in the future market may gradually weaken, but it is expected that the ABS market will be stronger in the short term due to various positive factors.

At present, international oil prices are fluctuating at a high level, and cost support is still acceptable. With the upcoming Spring Festival, the expectation of weak supply and demand of styrene is beginning to be realized, and spot transactions are weak. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly experience downward fluctuations.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market in January was weak and fell by nearly 5%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 816 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.9%.

Poor terminal demand, oscillation and decline in hydrogen peroxide market in January

Since January, the terminal paper market has declined, and the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased by the paper and printing industry has decreased, resulting in a sluggish market. At the beginning of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market weakened and the price slightly declined. In the second week, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers stopped for maintenance, and the supply became tight. The terminal caprolactam market was operating at a high level, and the hydrogen peroxide market saw an upward trend. The price returned to the front line of 820 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.65%.

Starting from mid month, the terminal paper market has continued to decline, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide in the paper and printing industry has declined. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers lack confidence in maintaining prices, and the market is slow to sell. The domestic hydrogen peroxide market is mainly weak and downward. The mainstream quotation in Shandong region is around 800 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation in Anhui region is 900 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 20 yuan/ton.

At the end of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline weakly, with the mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong dropping to 750 yuan/ton, and the hydrogen peroxide price in Anhui region dropping to 830 yuan/ton. The terminal demand continues to be sluggish, and the hydrogen peroxide market is mainly weak and declining.

Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that with the upcoming Spring Festival holiday in February, terminal demand is still weak, and the future hydrogen peroxide market will mainly operate weakly.

Recently (1.5-1.26), the acrylonitrile market has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 26th, the bulk water price of acrylonitrile in the market was 9287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.87% from 9762 yuan/ton on the 5th. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9200 to 9500 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has increased, and the cost has strengthened the support for acrylonitrile; As the end of the lunar calendar approaches, the main downstream ABS production has dropped to around 65%, leading to a decrease in purchases of acrylonitrile; The overall supply of acrylonitrile units is loose, and the impact of supply and demand is bearish, resulting in a weak market consolidation.

Recently (1.5-1.26), the production of domestic acrylonitrile units has slightly decreased, and the supply is still sufficient.

Recently (1.5-1.26), the raw material propylene market has risen, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has strengthened. Due to the shutdown of some propylene units in Shandong region, the market atmosphere has improved, and downstream enterprises have actively entered the market. On site inventory has decreased to a low level, and enterprises are actively pushing for an increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 26th, the domestic propylene price was 6980 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.16% from 6638 yuan/ton on the 5th.

It is understood that since mid to late January, downstream ABS prices have risen but production has gradually decreased to a low level of around 6.5%, resulting in a significant weakening of demand for acrylonitrile; At present, acrylic fiber factories are frequently receiving purchase orders from yarn factories at the beginning of the month, with overall low production and weak demand for acrylonitrile; The nitrile rubber plant is operating normally, with slight support for the demand for acrylonitrile; The acrylamide industry is operating at a low rate of 40-50%, and the demand for acrylonitrile is weakening. Overall, the current demand for acrylonitrile is weak, and the supply of acrylonitrile is loose, resulting in a weak market consolidation.

Market forecast: Business Society acrylonitrile analysts believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is still sufficient; The demand side support is weak, and the price of raw material propylene is supported by the increase in equipment maintenance prices, which will provide some support for acrylonitrile. Overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to maintain a narrow range of consolidation in the short term.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride in 2023 has declined. The price at the beginning of the year was 8062.5 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the year was 7662.5 yuan/ton. The price of phthalic anhydride in 2023 has decreased by 4.96%. The highest price for the year occurred in mid September, with a highest price of 8850 yuan/ton. The lowest price for the year occurred in mid December, with a lowest price of 7400 yuan/ton and a maximum amplitude of 19.59%.

From the domestic price trend chart of phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the market trend of phthalic anhydride is declining in 2023. The annual trend shows an “M” shape, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride can be roughly divided into four stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to mid March, when the price trend of phthalic anhydride increases; The second stage is from late March to the end of June, with a downward trend in the phthalic anhydride market; The third stage is from early July to mid September, during which the price of phthalic anhydride rises rapidly; In the fourth stage, from late September to the end of the year, the market price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and decreased.

The two periods of increase in domestic phthalic anhydride in 2023 are from the beginning of the year to mid March and from early July to mid September. There are several positive factors, including an increase in raw material crude oil, an increase in the price trend of ortho benzene raw material ortho phthalic anhydride, and a significant increase in cost support. In addition, the maintenance of ortho benzene equipment has led to a tight supply of ortho benzene and an increase in price, which has strengthened the cost support for ortho phthalic anhydride and led to an upward trend in the phthalic anhydride market. The second is the increase in export volume of phthalic anhydride, which provides significant support for the demand for phthalic anhydride. The third is the demand support for downstream plasticizers. During this period, the operating rate of the plasticizer industry has increased, providing strong support for the upstream phthalic anhydride market. The positive support has led to an increase in the price trend of phthalic anhydride during this period.

The two stages of decline in the trend of phthalic anhydride market are from late March to the end of June and from late September to the end of the year. On the one hand, due to the prominent supply-demand contradiction, in the early stage, due to the rise of the phthalic anhydride market, some units were put into operation for production, resulting in sufficient domestic spot supply. In addition, with the impact of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, as the industrial naphthalene price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride raw material continues to decline, the cost support for naphthalene phthalic anhydride weakens, and the downstream industry’s loss situation has not significantly improved. The overall operating load has decreased, the demand for phthalic anhydride has increased slowly, and resistance to high prices has increased, The market for phthalic anhydride using ortho benzene method has declined. On the other hand, the market trends of upstream and downstream products have seen a significant decline in the price trend of adjacent benzene at this stage, which has lost cost support for phthalic anhydride and led to a decline in the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the downstream plasticizer industry has suffered serious losses, and there is no active procurement of phthalic anhydride. The demand for phthalic anhydride may be difficult to significantly increase, and the demand side is still under pressure. The combination of negative factors has led to a decline in the market price trend of phthalic anhydride.

Overall, the domestic phthalic anhydride market has slightly declined in 2023. With the continuous increase of phthalic anhydride production capacity, domestic production may increase, and market supply may increase, which has a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market. The statistics of domestic phthalic anhydride production capacity in recent years are as follows:

In 2023, there will be an increase in domestic exports of phthalic anhydride, which will provide favorable support for the price of phthalic anhydride. This is mainly due to the oversupply of domestic phthalic anhydride, which has become a major outlet for the market. Moreover, China’s phthalic anhydride is in a global price depression, coupled with India’s mandatory BIS certification of phthalic anhydride in the second half of the year, resulting in a significant increase in China’s phthalic anhydride exports to India in the first half of the year. With the oversupply of domestic phthalic anhydride, the low price advantage of domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride supply also lays a certain guarantee for its impact on overseas markets. It is expected that domestic phthalic anhydride exports will continue to rise in the later stage.

Market forecast: The domestic phthalic anhydride market has severe overcapacity, coupled with the continuous increase in production capacity of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, neighboring phthalic anhydride is being suppressed to a certain extent. In addition, the real estate industry has gradually entered a destocking stage in the past two years, and the supply of plasticizers in the plasticizer industry chain is clearly oversupplied. In addition, the process of replacing traditional plasticizers with environmentally friendly plasticizers is still ongoing, and the demand for traditional phthalic anhydride has not significantly increased. However, the increase in export volume has brought certain benefits to the phthalic anhydride market, The combined influence of bullish and bearish factors is expected to result in the highest market price of phthalic anhydride in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the highest price around 9000 yuan/ton and the lowest price possibly appearing in the second quarter, with the lowest price around 6000 yuan/ton.