Aluminum prices slightly strengthened in October
Aluminum prices slightly strengthened in October. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 17, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20960 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from the market average price of 20733.33 yuan/ton on October 1.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 20000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
In October, aluminum ingots followed the overall strong operation of non-ferrous metals, which was greatly affected by macro factors to a certain extent.
The recent positive news is as follows:
The game between China and the United States: the United States expands the coverage of high tariffs&the United States imposes additional fees on specific ships, while China imposes special port fees on American ships. (Not directly impacting aluminum exports, affecting expectations).
Policy benefits: Shanghai’s intelligent terminal industry plan and Q4 may introduce consumer stimulus measures (for automobiles and home appliances) to boost demand for high-end aluminum materials.
Overview of October Fundamentals
On the production capacity side, the operating capacity is 44.165 million tons (stable at a high level), and the newly added capacity (280000 tons to be started in Xinjiang) is basically offset by the reduced production (400000 tons in Qinghai Zhonglv and 4.31 million tons in Shandong Weiqiao).
On the cost side, the price of alumina has declined (Guangxi market price is 3030 yuan/ton), pre baked anodes remain stable at 5055 yuan/ton, and thermal coal has slightly rebounded (Q5500 average price is 589 yuan/ton), indicating weak overall cost support.
Changes in aluminum structure: The proportion of aluminum water direct alloying has increased to 73.9%, and the proportion of aluminum ingot delivery products is less than 27%, highlighting the phenomenon of “shortage of ingots” in spot goods.
Demand side: demand differentiation, strong demand resilience for new energy vehicles (with a retail penetration rate of 57.8% for passenger cars in September) and new energy cables (with aluminum rod processing fees maintained at a high level of 550 yuan/ton in Guangdong); Weakness in the building materials industry (Foshan aluminum rod inventory of 62100 tons continues to accumulate)
Inventory change: Social inventory has been reduced. As of October 16th, the social inventory in mainstream areas of China was 615000 tons, which basically consumed the accumulated inventory during the holiday. It is close to 614000 tons on September 25th, and 19000 tons have been reduced from 634000 tons on October 9th.
Stay tuned for the future market
Under the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the macro sentiment of non-ferrous commodities is relatively strong, and aluminum prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.
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