1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 16th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4020 yuan/ton. In early October, DMF prices showed a weak and stable operation, with a focus on stable but weak negotiations. Insufficient demand suppressed price increases, and the overall price of DMF fell by 0.5% in the first half of the month.
2、 Cause analysis
Market wise: On October 16th, the benchmark price of DMF in Shengyi Society was 4020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% from the beginning of the month (4040 yuan/ton). The delivery price of bulk water in Shandong and North China markets is concentrated between 3770-3850 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable but weak, and insufficient demand is suppressing price increases. Currently, the overall DMF market is operating steadily but weakly.
Supply and demand relationship: Downstream procurement is mainly based on essential needs, inventory consumption is slow, and the number of new customers is limited. Currently, the overall operating rate of DMF industry is less than 40%, and the contradiction of oversupply continues. Some capacity expansion projects have been put on hold.
In terms of cost, domestic coal to methanol project approvals are becoming stricter, coke oven gas routes are affected by steel production cuts, Iran’s unstable natural gas supply is causing delays in new production capacity, green methanol has become a new demand highlight due to the International Maritime Organization’s zero emission policy, and MTO plant restarts and some downstream new production support demand.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts believe that in early October, the DMF market showed a stable to weak trend, with a slight decline in prices and an unresolved supply-demand imbalance. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in export demand and industry adjustments on prices.
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