1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market prices have stabilized at a high level this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market this week is 8100.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices increased by 16.83% year-on-year. On August 14th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 41.12, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 61.05% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 36.52% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have temporarily stabilized their quotations this week and have low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6733.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6763.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.45%. Weekend prices fell 6.98% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 9350.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9666.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.39%. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, which has a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in mid to late August may be mainly fluctuating and rising. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream neopentyl glycol market has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from August 4th to August 11th, 2023, the weekly auction price of crude benzene increased, reaching 7268.75 yuan/ton this weekend and 7198.75 yuan/ton last weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.97%.

In terms of crude oil: During this cycle, the crude oil market rose first and then fell, with an overall upward trend. On August 10th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $82.82 per barrel, a decrease of $1.58 or 1.9%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $86.40 per barrel, a decrease of $1.15 or 1.3%. The weak economic data in the United States, coupled with the uncertain outlook for Chinese demand, has put pressure on the oil market and led to a downward trend.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has increased by a total of 150 yuan/ton during this cycle, with a current implementation of 7750 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7800 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8003 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7800 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On August 7th, the price of pure benzene was 7675 yuan/ton, and on Friday (August 11th), the price of pure benzene was 7800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.66% compared to last week and a decrease of 4.38% compared to the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has continued to rise for six consecutive weeks.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, crude oil continued to show a strong trend this week. The pure benzene market was affected by the tight inventory in East China, and prices continued to rise during the week. Sinopec has raised the ex factory price of pure benzene to 7750 yuan/ton. Driven by the pure benzene market, the hydrogenation benzene market continued to rise this week, but the increase was relatively small.

The auction price of crude benzene continued to rise this week, but the overall increase has tightened. On the supply side, the operating rate of coking enterprises has slightly rebounded this week, and the supply of crude benzene remains slightly tight. In terms of demand, the production of hydrogenation benzene enterprises has slightly declined this week, and the demand is still acceptable. Overall, the tight supply of pure benzene has driven the industry chain up, and the market trading situation has improved. In the future, there has been no significant change in supply and demand, and the trend of hydrogenated benzene will still follow the fluctuations of the pure benzene market. The price of pure benzene is running at a high level, and there is already a resistance mentality in the downstream. However, the overall supply of pure benzene is tight, and the benefits still exist. It is expected that the crude benzene market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market has declined in a narrow range. From August 7th to 10th, the price of asphalt in Shandong fell from 3804 yuan/ton to 3776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%, a month on month increase of 0.09%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.53%. The international crude oil market is relatively strong, but cost support is limited. The supply side continues to maintain a high level, and demand remains average. The asphalt market is weak in the short term.

In terms of supply, the daily production of major production enterprises has slightly increased, driving an overall increase in supply within the area.. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: In terms of crude oil, the international crude oil price continues to rise, with the US WTI crude oil price reaching a nearly 9-month high. The main reason is that market supply concerns continue to ferment, coupled with the phased positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. As of the close on August 9th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was at $84.40 per barrel, an increase of $1.48 or 1.8%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $87.55 per barrel, an increase of $1.38 or 1.6%.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. The market has slowly recovered in the early stages of demand, and demand in some regions has gradually increased. However, some regions are still difficult to show significant improvement due to the impact of rainfall. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.

As of the close of August 10th, the oil asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2310 was opened at 3703 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3727 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3688 yuan/ton. It closed at 3695 yuan/ton in the end, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.27% compared to the settlement on the previous trading day. The trading volume was 187483 lots, the position was 193832 lots, and the daily increase was -13890.

In the future market forecast, international crude oil is operating at a high level, but the boost to the asphalt market is limited, and the supply side remains stable while increasing, with slight differences in demand among regions. Business Society asphalt analysts expect that the short-term domestic asphalt market situation will be mainly sorted out.

The domestic bisphenol A market is operating quietly. Recently, the overall weakness of the dual raw material phenol/acetone has declined. The phenol market price in East China is around 8000 yuan/ton, and the negotiated price of acetone in East China is around 6550 yuan/ton, supporting the weakness of the dual raw material. Downstream, epoxy resin and PC tend to operate weakly, and downstream new orders have low enthusiasm for entering the market.

On August 9th, the quotation situation of bisphenol A in the mainstream domestic market:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily fluctuations

East China region/ 10600./-100

Shandong region/ 10300./-200

At present, the pressure on shippers to ship has increased. This week, Nantong Xingchen will stop for maintenance, and the supply of bisphenol A in the market will decrease. However, with weak demand, it is expected that the market impact will be limited. In the short term, it is expected that bisphenol A will operate in a narrow range, and attention will be paid to the trend of dual raw materials and downstream demand follow-up.

The spot quantity of bisphenol A is limited, and there is currently no production and sales pressure from various manufacturers. The broad upward trend of raw materials has driven the downstream bisphenol A market to continue to rise. Pay attention to the recent transaction situation, and it is expected that bisphenol A will adjust at a high level today.

The price of plasticizer DOTP has increased significantly this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 8th, the price of DOTP was 11180 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.88% compared to the DOTP price of 10460 yuan/ton on July 30th. The price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, PTA prices have stopped rising and fallen, overall raw material costs have increased, downstream PVC market is weak, and demand for plasticizers remains weak. This week, the price of plasticizer DOTP has fluctuated and increased.

The price of isooctanol skyrocketed this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 8th was 11033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.45% compared to the price of 9900 yuan/ton on July 30th. The planned and unexpected fluctuations in domestic octanol units have led to continuous tightening of the supply side, resulting in continuous increases in octanol prices. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials has increased. The price of plasticizer DOTP has also risen this week. As the price of isooctanol rises to a high point, buying and chasing high sentiment has become cautious. In mid to late August, two sets of isooctanol units in Shandong and Jiangsu are planned to restart, and the supply side of the isooctanol market is expected to be loose. In the future, the downward pressure on isooctanol will increase.

PTA prices have stopped rising and falling this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the PTA price on August 8th was 5848.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.55% compared to the PTA price on July 30th, which was 6000.91 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and increased, PTA costs have risen, new PTA production has landed, PTA supply has increased, downstream construction is low, PTA demand is poor, PTA prices have stopped rising and fallen. This week, the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials has slowed down, and there is insufficient support for the price increase of plasticizer DOTP in the future.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the resumption of isooctanol production is insufficient support for the future surge in isooctanol prices. PTA prices have stopped rising and fallen, and the pressure on the cost decline of plasticizer product DOTP has increased; The demand for downstream PVC is weak, and the demand for plasticizers is cold; The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is 50%, and the supply of plasticizers is temporarily stable. In the future, there is insufficient support for cost increases, stable supply and weak demand, and weak support for plasticizer increases. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.