441 # Overview of Silicon Price Trends

In November, metal silicon first fell and then stabilized. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 29, 2023, the reference price for domestic 441 # metal silicon market was 15180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.94% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 25.04% from the same period last year. At the beginning of the month, there was news of the shutdown of Southwest Power Co., Ltd., but the cancelled warehouse receipts have gradually flowed into the spot warehouse and have not yet been released. Overall, the supply has remained stable and the flow of goods is relatively abundant. Coupled with the decline in polycrystalline silicon prices, it has seriously pressured the price of metal silicon. Under the resonance of supply and demand, metal silicon is under pressure. In the mid to late period, the price of silicon metal tends to stabilize, with a slight decrease in prices in Xinjiang. In the context of the electricity price trend during the dry season in the southwest region, manufacturers have a clear willingness to raise prices, and the upstream and downstream are deadlocked in a game, resulting in stable prices.

Supply side

The main production areas in Southwest China have gradually entered the flat and dry seasons. Based on the current scale of production stoppage, the production reduction in Southwest China in November did not exceed expectations. In the later stage, there is still room for further production reduction, and it is expected that the production will decrease month on month. The slow release of new production capacity from major factories in the northwest, coupled with warehouse receipt cancellations, is expected to result in an overall oversupply in the market in December.

Cost side

Electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan have both increased in November, and it is expected that there will still be some room for increase in December, with the cost bottom further moving upwards. The ongoing border conflict in Myanmar has led to an increase in the price of wood chips, but the slowdown in procurement due to the reduction in construction in the southwest has partially offset the impact. Xinjiang’s silicon coal saw a slight increase due to the recent strong dual focus and contraction in mining supervision supply, resulting in a rise in prices at the end of the month.

Demand side

In November, the price of polycrystalline silicon further declined, and the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a current model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 68000 to 70000 yuan/ton. The new production capacity of polycrystalline silicon is still being continuously invested, but market transactions are limited, and there is a demand for stock of metallic silicon, but the price is severely suppressed.

The organic silicon DMC market is weakly declining, and on November 29th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 14320 yuan/ton. The downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is limited, and the factory’s order volume is average. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on site, and some downstream factories have started operating at a reduced rate, indicating a further narrowing trend in demand for metallic silicon.

The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 50.1% month on month, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 51.6% month on month. The procurement of recycled aluminum alloy raw materials has been hindered, and downstream orders have weakened, leading to a decrease in production to maintain essential procurement.

According to customs data, industrial silicon exports in October amounted to 43600 tons, a decrease of 15.01% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 12.95%. There was a significant decrease in exports compared to September, mainly due to weak overseas demand.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the current production reduction in Southwest China has not exceeded expectations, and the price of metallic silicon has not fluctuated significantly for more than half a month. With no significant changes in fundamentals, it is difficult for silicon prices to break through. If the cost of Southwest China rises in December and some raw material inventory is consumed, silicon prices are expected to rebound. Continuous attention should be paid to the production reduction in Southwest China and changes in downstream demand. It is expected that the price of metallic silicon will remain stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market was downward in November. On November 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 17300 yuan/ton/ton, and on November 28th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 16650 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 3.76%.

2、 Market analysis

The titanium dioxide market was weak and downward in November. Overall, the international foreign trade order situation is average, while the domestic terminal market is weak. In the first half of the year, there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the titanium dioxide market, with major manufacturers mostly observing the pricing policies of leading companies. Currently, stability is the main focus in various markets. In mid month, the Shanghai International Coatings Exhibition kicked off, and the order situation improved, with companies scheduling delivery. In the latter half of the year, due to power and gas restrictions, downstream market operations declined, demand was weak, and new orders in the market were limited. The price adjustment of leading manufacturers has been reduced by thousands of yuan, and some manufacturers have followed up with price reductions. As of now, most domestic quotations for rutile type titanium dioxide are between 16000-17600 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to customs data, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China in October 2023 was 7802.13 tons, a month on month increase of 15.13% and a year-on-year increase of 138.77%; From January to October 2023, the cumulative import of titanium dioxide from China was about 64000 tons, a decrease of 42.05% compared to the same period last year, and the import volume decreased by about 46500 tons.

In October 2023, China’s titanium dioxide exports reached 118800 tons, a decrease of 18.02% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 19.95%; From January to October 2023, the cumulative export of titanium dioxide was about 1.3734 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.19%, and the export volume increased by about 20.15 million tons.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region fluctuated slightly in November. With the decrease in raw ore supply and the shutdown of large factories. Low end market prices have slightly increased. The downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a general market situation, with poor market demand. They are more cautious in purchasing and observe more. As of now, the tax-free quotation for grade 38-42 titanium concentrate is around 1460-1480 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for grade 46 10 titanium concentrate is around 2150-2200 yuan/ton, and the tax-free quotation for grade 47 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is mainly strong, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In October 2023, China’s titanium dioxide exports reached 118800 tons, a decrease of 18.02% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 19.95%; From January to October 2023, the cumulative export of titanium dioxide was about 1.3734 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.19%, and the export volume increased by about 20.15 million tons.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices increased in November. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average domestic sulfuric acid price on November 1st was 258 yuan/ton, and on November 28th it was 302 yuan/ton. The monthly price has increased by 17.06%. The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate has stabilized at a high level, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and rise.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Business Society believes that the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has fluctuated slightly this month, and the sulfuric acid market price has risen. The cost support for titanium dioxide is still acceptable. However, the downstream market is weak, and the market trading situation is light. Transactions are cautious and cautious, and titanium dioxide companies are under greater pressure to ship. It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will be weak in the short term, depending on downstream market demand. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the hydrogen peroxide market experienced a significant decline in November. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1150 yuan/ton. On November 27th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 890 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 22.61%.

Negative sentiment suppresses the significant decline in hydrogen peroxide market in November

At the beginning of the month, the stocking market in the terminal paper and printing industries ended, and the order volume of hydrogen peroxide decreased, resulting in average market transactions. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have lowered their factory prices one after another, resulting in a significant drop in hydrogen peroxide prices. The market average price has dropped to 950 yuan/ton, with a daily drop of 200-300 yuan/ton, a drop of nearly 18%.

In the middle of the month, terminal demand has not improved, and the hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline, with a slowdown compared to the previous period. The average market price has dropped to 900 yuan/ton, indicating a weak trend in the market. As the end of the month approaches, the hydrogen peroxide market is basically stable, with mainstream market quotes of 890-900 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, an hydrogen peroxide analyst at Business Society, believes that terminal demand is weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline weakly. Due to the current low level of hydrogen peroxide market, entering December, the market may stop falling and rebound.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of November 24th, the spot nickel quotation was 130500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.28% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 35.99%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen 10 times and risen 1 time in the past 12 weeks. Recently, nickel prices have continued to decline.

Nickel industry chain

On a macro level, the minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve have been released, indicating that restrictive interest rates will be maintained and caution will be exercised in the future. There is still a possibility of further interest rate hikes, and there is no indication of a rate cut. The US dollar has stopped falling and rebounded.

On the supply side, although some enterprises have stopped production for maintenance, the overall situation of oversupply has not been effectively alleviated. This has put tremendous pressure on nickel prices and has had a negative impact on the operating conditions of nickel production enterprises.

In terms of demand: With the increase in stainless steel production and the expansion of the new energy battery market, the demand for nickel has increased. Alloy is the main downstream of pure nickel, with better demand for military and ship alloys, and inferior demand for civilian alloys. The demand for electroplating is relatively stable.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of refined nickel in China in October 2023 was 6441.889 tons, an increase of 898.92 tons month on month or 16.22%; A year-on-year decrease of 5510.618 tons, a decrease of 46.1%. From January to October 2023, the total import volume of refined nickel in China was 76132.126 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 51474.328 tons, a decrease of 40.34%.

In summary, in the situation of surplus supply on the fundamental side and relatively weak demand, cost side nickel production enterprises are facing losses, and oversupply has become the main reason for the current weakening of nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will remain weak and difficult to improve in the short term.

Aluminum fluoride prices have fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 23, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% from the 11450 yuan/ton price of aluminum fluoride on November 16 last week. Cost support has weakened, aluminum fluoride enterprises are resuming work and demand is weak. This week, aluminum fluoride prices have fluctuated and fallen.

Reduced cost support

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 23, the price of fluorite was 3700 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the price of fluorite on November 7, which was 3700 yuan/ton. As of November 23, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11116.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% compared to November 7′s price of 11183.33 yuan/ton. The construction of fluorite mines is poor, downstream demand is sluggish, the fluorite market is stagnant, and fluorite prices are weak and temporarily stable. Downstream refrigerant manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid are operating at low loads, and downstream procurement of hydrofluoric acid is poor. In addition, hydrofluoric acid exports are relatively weak, resulting in a slight decrease in hydrofluoric acid prices in the later stage. The price of raw materials has decreased, the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials has decreased, and the cost support for aluminum fluoride has weakened.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at the Business Society believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly decreased, resulting in a decrease in the cost of fluoride aluminum; Yunnan has limited electricity, resulting in a decrease in electrolytic aluminum production and a decrease in demand for aluminum fluoride; The resumption of operations by aluminum fluoride enterprises has led to an increase in aluminum fluoride supply, and the willingness of aluminum fluoride manufacturers to increase prices has weakened. Overall, the increase in supply and weak demand for aluminum fluoride, coupled with a decrease in costs, are expected to lead to a volatile decline in aluminum fluoride prices in the future.