According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market will fluctuate upward in February 2026. On February 1st, the average price was 163500 yuan/ton, and on February 28th, the average price was 168000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 2.75%.
Supply side:
The overseas antimony market is operating steadily, with prices stabilizing and price differentials narrowing during the Spring Festival, providing support for the domestic market; The news of the Trump administration’s plan to introduce guidance prices for antimony and other commodities has not had a significant impact yet, and the impact of the Myanmar conflict on antimony supply still needs to be tracked.
The shutdown of some domestic smelters has led to a slight tightening of supply; The global supply of antimony ore is tight, with Tajikistan as the main supplier and limited refining capacity in Australia. The key mineral reserve plan between the United States and Australia may affect the circulation of antimony ore. Thailand’s import and export volume of antimony raw materials remained high in January, with antimony oxide exports increasing for four consecutive months and exports to the United States recovering. The proportion of raw material exports to China rose to 62.1%, easing the pressure on domestic antimony ore supply. Overall, the tight supply of antimony ore provided basic support for the volatile upward trend of the domestic antimony ingot market in February. At the same time, the optimization of raw material flow further stabilized domestic supply expectations and provided positive support for the short-term market trend.
Demand side:
Compared with the gradual recovery of the supply side, the pace of downstream resumption of work is relatively slow. In addition, most enterprises have completed stocking before the holiday, and their willingness to replenish after the new year is flat. The overall market is dominated by rigid procurement. Although the activity of inquiry has increased compared to before the holiday, the transaction volume has not increased synchronously, and strong support has not yet been formed on the demand side.
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: As the core downstream of antimony ingots, the demand for antimony oxide is closely linked to antimony ingots, and this month it has moderately recovered with the upward trend of antimony ingots. It is mainly used in the fields of flame retardants and photovoltaic glass. The flame retardant field relies on rigid demand to maintain stability, while the demand for photovoltaic glass will be released later; Combined with the consecutive increase in exports for four months and the recovery of exports to the United States, overall demand has remained stable with a slight increase. However, due to the slow resumption of downstream work, demand has been released moderately.
Photovoltaics: During the Spring Festival, the industry as a whole entered a stagnant state, with a slower pace of shipments and more shutdowns in deep processing. After the holiday, there was a significant accumulation of inventory, and inventory pressure rebounded. At the end of the month, the upstream and downstream gradually entered the bargaining game stage, and the short-term trend is currently unclear.
Market outlook: Taking into account both supply and demand, the short-term bullish sentiment in the market continues, with antimony ingots and antimony oxide prices showing an upward trend. The tightening of the supply side provides support for the market, but downstream purchases are still mainly for essential needs, lacking substantial positive support. Therefore, the short-term trend increase still depends on the actual order landing situation downstream.
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