According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from July 27th to August 3rd, the domestic butadiene market price remained at 7201 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 19.01% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.81%. The higher prices of crude oil and Naphtha have brought about a certain pull from the cost side. At the same time, the prices of some downstream products have risen, which has certain support from the market demand side. The merchants’ expectations of demand are stronger, and the offer of the outer market for the far month ships is firm, so the market atmosphere is high.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: crude oil continues to rise, and there is profit taking and risk aversion behavior in the market. The expectation of tightening market supply in the later stage still plays a role, and it is expected that the oil market will still have upward momentum, but upward resistance will limit the upward range of oil prices. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.49 per barrel, a decrease of $1.88 or 2.3%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.20 per barrel, a decrease of $1.71 or 2.0%.

In terms of Naphtha, the domestic Naphtha market continued to be at a high level. Supported by the just need of terminal restructuring, the refinery actively pushed up, and the deal was good. On August 3, the benchmark price of Naphtha of the business community was 8054.00 yuan/ton. The cost of butadiene is a favorable factor.

On the supply side, the main production enterprises, Sinopec, and various sales companies have stable prices for butadiene, with a listed price of 7200 yuan/ton as of August 3rd. Some preliminary maintenance devices have been restarted, and the capacity utilization rate of the butadiene industry has increased month on month. Short term bearish impact on butadiene supply side.

On the demand side, some maintenance devices were restarted, and the capacity utilization rate of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber and Styrene-butadiene increased month on month. As of August 3, the benchmark price of Styrene-butadiene of the business community was 11758.33 yuan/ton, and the benchmark price of Polybutadiene was 10940.00 yuan/ton. The profit of the downstream industry was fair, and there was no obvious drag on the demand side. The demand for butadiene is relatively strong.

On August 2nd, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at $695-705 per ton; China CFR reports 745-755 US dollars per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $405-415 per ton; FD Northwestern Europe closed at 495-505 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, as some supplier prices increase, it is difficult for the market to have low-priced supply to supplement. Short term bullish expectations further stimulate downstream inquiries to follow up, and the focus of transactions continues to rise. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market is expected to rise again.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this month, with prices gradually increasing. On July 1st, the price was 6183 yuan/ton; On July 31st, the price was at 7265 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.49% compared to the beginning of the month and a decrease of 18.29% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

1. Crude oil rose broadly. 2. The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in July. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. 3. Downstream profitability is poor, styrene has slightly increased, regional demand is strong, downstream purchases are normal, traders just need to replenish, driving the transaction center to continue to move up, and crude oil prices have risen.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 1000 yuan/ton to 7200 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Some economic data in the United States has improved, and Saudi Arabia may further extend the deadline for additional production cuts, causing international oil prices to continue to rise. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 09 rose by $80.58 per barrel, or 0.61%, by $0.49 per barrel; ICE oil futures contract 09 rose by $0.75 per barrel, or 0.89%, at $84.99 per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2309, rose 3.5 yuan to 606.7 yuan/barrel, and rose 4.4 yuan to 611.1 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

On July 31st, in external trading: FOB South Korea increased by $6 to $873 per ton, CFR China increased by $15 to $895 per ton, FOB Southeast Asia increased by $6 to $842 per ton, FOB Rotterdam stabilized at $870 per ton, and FOB USG stabilized at 317 cents per gallon.

The fundamentals are showing an upward trend in the short term, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene may continue to rise in the short term, and we are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices, and changes in demand on the price of pure benzene.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market showed a negative trend in July. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the benchmark price of domestic PA66 was 18200 yuan/ton on August 1st, a decrease of -7.46% compared to the price level at the beginning of July.

Cause analysis

In July, the market trend of PA66 continued to be weak, and overall, spot prices of various brands continued to decline. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently maintained at around 60%, with a narrow increase within the month. Some production lines of enterprises are only resuming work, and the on-site supply of goods is still relatively sufficient, so the supply side’s support for spot goods is average. Poor digestion in terms of inventory, negative corporate confidence, and cautious pricing operations. Upstream, the domestic market of Hexamethylenediamine is weak. The Adipic acid market rose moderately. The rise of crude oil in July drove both pure benzene and Cyclohexanone, the raw materials of Adipic acid, to strengthen. However, due to the price fluctuation in the early stage, Adipic acid has no obvious advantage on the spot of PA66. PA66 raw material side has poor support for spot goods, and the demand situation is weak and stable. Terminal enterprises mainly rely on goods to maintain production, and buyers generally resist high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 in July was negative. The price trend of the raw material side is acceptable, but the support for the cost side of PA66 is average. The load of PA66 enterprise is maintained, and there is no significant improvement in supply support. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak and vulnerable market in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and rose in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the price of DOTP was 10540 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.10% compared to the price of 9750 yuan/ton on July 1. In July, the prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and PTA increased, resulting in higher costs. The downstream PVC market supported the increase, and the demand for plasticizers rebounded. In July, the price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and increased.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol was 9983.33 yuan/ton on July 31, an increase of 6.77% compared to 9350 yuan/ton on July 1. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. In July, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, resulting in an increase in raw material costs and a surge in the price of plasticizer DOTP.

PTA prices fluctuated and rose in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PTA price on July 31st was 6010.91 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.34% compared to the PTA price of 5600 yuan/ton on July 1st. Crude oil prices fluctuate and rise, PTA costs rise, PTA prices fluctuate and rise in July, PTA new production falls, PTA supply increases, PTA growth slows down, plasticizer DOTP raw material costs rise in July, but the rise slows down, plasticizer DOTP prices fluctuate and rise.

PVC prices fluctuated and rose in July

According to the PVC product market analysis system of the Business Society, as of July 31, the PVC quotation was 5796.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.30% compared to the PVC price of 5505 yuan/ton on July 1. In July, PVC prices fluctuated and increased, while crude oil prices fluctuated and increased. PVC costs and prices also increased; The delay of two policies in the “16 Financial Regulations” will help promote the completion and delivery of real estate projects, increase the expected demand for PVC, increase the upward momentum of PVC, rebound downstream demand, and increase the upward momentum of plasticizer demand.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the price of crude oil has risen, and the prices of isooctanol and PTA have continued to rise in July. The cost of plasticizer product DOTP has increased, and downstream PVC demand has been supported greatly. The demand for plasticizers has rebounded, and the upward momentum of plasticizer product DOTP prices has increased. In the future, with rising costs and a rebound in demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the overall price of toluene showed a stepwise upward trend in July. On July 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7060 yuan/ton, and on July 29th, it was 7860 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.33% compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil price rose and the downstream product oil consumption tax policy was introduced, driving up the price of toluene; In the later stage, on the one hand, international crude oil prices continued to rise, and on the other hand, domestic supply of PetroChina South China and CNOOC Huizhou decreased, once again driving the toluene market up significantly.

In terms of crude oil, as of July 28th, international crude oil futures prices have once again risen. On July 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.09 per barrel. WTI crude oil has reached its highest point in the past three months. The main contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $83.79 per barrel on July 28th. The oil market has been boosted by the expected tightening of supply and continued fermentation, as well as the rebound in demand. Regarding the future trend of crude oil, oil analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, supply tension is expected to continue to rise, as supply restrictions from Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue until August, which will help the oil market maintain a strong trend. The rebound in demand will also bring certain benefits to the oil market. In the medium term, the oil market still faces certain uncertainties. On the one hand, the situation between Ukraine and Russia may intensify, and geopolitical tensions will have an impact on the oil market. At the same time, there have been recent bad news from the European and American banking industries, and the possibility of a banking crisis erupting again could have a negative impact on oil prices. Overall, the oil market is relatively strong in the short term, and there is still uncertainty in the medium term.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, this month, the TDI market first rose, then fell, and then slightly rebounded, with an overall slight upward trend. On June 1st, the TDI benchmark price was 17300 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the price rose to 17800 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the increase was 2.89% compared to the beginning of the month, with a cycle high of 18166 yuan/ton. In the early stages of this month, the centralized replenishment of TDI downstream has formed certain support for TDI, leading to a rise in TDI prices; Later, with the end of restocking and resistance to high priced sources, TDI demand was weak and prices slightly decreased; At the end of the month, due to cost support and low willingness of merchants to lower prices, TDI prices are temporarily stable and firm.

In terms of downstream PX, it can be seen from the trend chart of P-Xylene that the price of P-Xylene rose in July. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of P-Xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, 3.03% higher than the price of 8250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, down 10.99% year on year. In July, the supply of P-Xylene was relatively normal, and the domestic PX operating rate was more than 70%. However, in the maintenance of some P-Xylene devices, the spot supply did not change much, and the PX price trend rose. The trend of international crude oil prices in July has significantly increased, and the external price of PX has been affected by this. As of the 27th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 1044-1046 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1069-1071 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has fluctuated mainly. On the whole, the operating rate of P-Xylene units in Asia is more than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia has not changed much. Supported by crude oil, the external price has risen, and the price of P-Xylene in the domestic market has risen..

In terms of gasoline, the gasoline price range fluctuated this month, with a slight increase at the end of the month compared to the beginning of the month. On June 1, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8478 yuan/ton, and on June 30, the price was 8700 yuan/ton, up 2.62% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the price of refined oil rose first and then fell. On June 30, the State Taxation Administration issued Announcement No. 11 of 2023, which unified the policy of levying consumption tax on a variety of raw materials, including mixed aromatics. After the announcement of this policy, the gasoline market ushered in a rapid rise, with gasoline prices rising by 200-300 yuan/ton, As the policy impact weakens, the gasoline market gradually returns to rationality, and gasoline market prices have fallen. Although domestic refining operations slightly increased the supply of refined oil products in the second half of the month, gasoline prices continued to rise slightly due to the rise in crude oil prices.

Future forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, international crude oil prices will continue to operate at high levels in the short term, with support for the cost of toluene; The tight supply of toluene in the short term will drive the high and strong price of toluene; Although the supply side may have eased in August, the downstream product oil of toluene is expected to continue to operate at a high level, providing support for toluene; In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will mainly consolidate at a high level in August.