At the beginning of April, the domestic ABS market was consolidating and moving, with some spot prices of certain grades fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 7th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11225 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.44% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In April, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has decreased, and the overall load has decreased by 5% to around 68% compared to the end of March. The average weekly production has returned to below 130000 tons, but it is still at a high level. The inventory level of aggregation enterprises is above 190000 tons, and the supply of goods is still very abundant. At the end of March, petrochemical plant orders were slightly higher due to the impact of additional orders. However, buyers’ willingness to stock up is not high, and the increase in trading volume is rapidly cooling down, leading to a return to a relatively weak market atmosphere. Overall, the supply side supports fluctuations in ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: As we enter April, the trend of ABS upstream materials has collectively weakened, providing poor support for ABS costs. In terms of acrylonitrile, some units in East China and Shandong regions have reduced their load or undergone maintenance. At the same time, the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical’s acrylonitrile unit has not been fully released, resulting in a period of supply reduction. And after the early low price inventory reduction, the industry’s inventory pressure has been partially relieved. As a result, the domestic acrylonitrile market fluctuated and rose, providing conditions for market growth. However, considering that the overall supply is still abundant, the short-term market growth may still be limited.
The domestic butadiene market has shown a recent trend of first rising and then falling, with an overall downward trend. Due to the impact of the early holiday period, some downstream stocks fell and then replenished their positions, resulting in a concentrated market transaction. With some auction sources selling at a premium, the market trend has significantly shifted upwards. Although the supply side prices remained firm, the high-level trading in the later part of the week was somewhat deadlocked. At the same time, the news of the US tariffs affected the decline of futures, and the news affected downstream buyers to be cautious. After short-term fluctuations, the market saw a significant decline in prices.
Recently, the styrene sector has been in a plateau period, with narrow range fluctuations in price. Previously, the raw material pure benzene rebounded after falling, and coupled with the expected tightening of supply due to the peak maintenance season for styrene in April, styrene followed suit at the end of March. However, the recent heavy decline in crude oil and pessimistic expectations for the future have constrained the styrene market, and it is expected that styrene may weaken in the short term.
On the demand side: In early April, the load of downstream ABS factories in the ABS terminal was generally flat, and the purchasing logic was biased towards buying at the bottom and supplementing orders for urgent needs. The atmosphere of on-site purchasing briefly rose. However, with the exhaustion of essential orders, on-site trading has become sluggish and the flow of goods has returned slowly. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
At the beginning of April, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and consolidated. The changes in the upstream three materials are relatively narrow, which provides average comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The load of ABS polymerization plant has been reduced, and there are reports of dual major factories undergoing maintenance in the future. The demand side consumption has increased to a certain extent, and currently downstream enterprises are returning to a flat purchasing trend. Business analysts believe that although ABS has fallen to near cost price, the market will have strong supply and weak demand in the long term. Due to the heavy impact of tariff policies on crude oil, there is a heavy emphasis on pessimistic expectations for the future market, and it is difficult to find any positive results. In the short term, the market will still be dominated by weak consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8011 yuan/ton on March 31 and 8008 yuan/ton on April 3, a decrease of 0.04% during this period. The average price of LDPE (2426H) was 9633 yuan/ton on March 31st and 9633 yuan/ton on April 3rd, during which the quotation remained stable. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8387 yuan/ton on March 31 and 8337 yuan/ton on April 3, a decrease of 0.60% during this period.
Recently, polyethylene has undergone a narrow and weak adjustment. Market supply pressure remains, with expectations of an increase. Downstream demand fell short of expectations, with limited demand and lack of confidence in the market. Prices were mainly based on small discounts for shipments, and end-users were resistant to high priced goods. Recently, international oil prices have been relatively strong, with some support on the cost side, but there are insufficient favorable factors, and it is expected that polyethylene will continue to be weak.

The price of ethylene glycol fell in March
The price of ethylene glycol will decrease in March 2025. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of March 31, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4521.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% from the average price of 4681.67 yuan/ton on March 1.
On March 31, 2025, the basis of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol spot contract was relatively high, and the transaction price range for this week’s contract was between 4470-4504 yuan/ton (excluding collective transactions). This week’s spot contract basis quotation is+42 to+46, next week’s spot contract basis quotation is+51 to+53, and April’s spot contract basis quotation is+65 to+67.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 4220-4250 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of March 31st, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is 524-528 US dollars/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is 536 US dollars/ton.
Port inventory fluctuated horizontally in March
From January to mid February, there was a significant accumulation of ethylene glycol inventory in the port, and in March, the port inventory fluctuated horizontally. On March 27, 2025, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 680000 tons, an increase of 8800 tons compared to the total inventory of 671200 tons on March 3; Compared to December 30, 2024, the total inventory was 397300 tons, an increase of 282700 tons.
Recent favorable factors
Recently, international crude oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the drag of cost has slowed down. Coupled with the significant decline in ethylene glycol, the downward space has narrowed.
Starting from April, the planned maintenance volume for spring inspections has increased, and the expected domestic supply of ethylene glycol has weakened.
Recent bearish factors
There is news of a production reduction in downstream polyester, with weak terminal demand and doubts about the subsequent consumption demand for ethylene glycol.
Overall, it is expected that the probability of horizontal fluctuations in the future market of ethylene glycol will increase.

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fell at a low level in March, and the spot prices of most brands were lowered. As of April 1st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 15766 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -1.87% compared to early March.
cause analysis
On the supply side: In March, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises fluctuated slightly, and the current industry average operating level has increased by nearly 2% to 84% compared to the previous period. The average weekly production within the month remained at a super high level of nearly 70000 tons, and the on-site supply was very abundant. The mid stream inventory position is relatively high, and manufacturers’ shipments and auctions are weak. Factory prices continue to decrease, and the market supply side is not providing good support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A plummeted in March. Upstream acetone and phenol fluctuated after falling, and industry players have a more concerned attitude towards cost values. Although there are expectations of a contraction in the supply of bisphenol A in the future, the demand for bisphenol A is not strong, and there is still some downward pressure on prices. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is relatively negative.
On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall market in March continued to be at a light level before the holiday. The downstream factories have a lukewarm load, and the end enterprises are lagging behind in stocking up. The purchasing logic has remained at a weak level of rigid demand for a long time, and the supply-demand contradiction pattern continues to be profound. Merchants tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards low position positions, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. This has increased the pressure for businesses to sell. The circulation of goods in the market is slow, and the overall trading situation continues to be light. The demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market fell at a low level in March. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently continuing to decline, providing poor support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has increased slightly at a high level, and the supply is loose. The current downstream demand follow-up is still slow, and the market trading situation is not good. The market is about to enter the peak season for maintenance, which may stimulate some price stabilization operations. However, due to high inventory levels in the industry and a shortage of new orders on the market, there is significant pressure for sellers to sell their products. Therefore, it is expected that the PC market will continue to experience a difficult upward trend in the short term.

Zinc price in March
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31st, the zinc price was 23354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% from the zinc price of 23438 yuan/ton on March 1st. After fluctuating and rising within the range in March, zinc prices fell at the end of the month.
On a macro level, the disruptive effects of US tax policies have weakened compared to before. At the same time, Fed officials have stated that the job market remains relatively stable and that more time is needed to completely eliminate inflation. In this context, the US dollar index was able to maintain its rebound momentum, thereby exerting downward pressure on metal prices.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, the current zinc ore production is showing a recovery trend compared to the previous period, and there is no clear indication that ore supply expectations will be further disrupted. Against the backdrop of a rebound in processing fees (TC) and accumulation of raw material inventory, the smelting production in February remained at a relatively low level. However, driven by the increase in smelting profits, it is expected that smelting production will significantly increase after March or April. However, the recovery pace of downstream markets after the holiday is relatively slow, coupled with high prices leading to a narrowing of premiums and basis differences.
On the demand side, in the spot market, downstream enterprises have slow progress in resuming production and work, weak consumer performance, and strong market fear of high priced goods. Despite low inventory levels, which have prompted traders to maintain firm prices, the repair of the premium appears to be difficult. Overall, the consumption of zinc in China is showing a weak trend. From the perspective of the operating rate of primary consumption, several downstream industries of zinc in China, including galvanized sheet, galvanized parts, die cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide, have experienced a month on month decline in their capacity utilization rates. This indicates that although the market originally expected to enter the peak consumption season, the actual downstream consumption level did not meet this expectation.
Future forecast
In March, a series of positive policy signals were announced during the Two Sessions in China, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending this year, especially in the main areas of zinc consumption such as infrastructure and new energy, where targeted support measures will be provided. In addition, considering the arrival of the traditional peak consumption season of “gold three silver four”, the subsequent market demand is expected to gradually release, providing upward momentum for zinc prices. Therefore, it is expected that zinc prices will not experience a significant decline in the short term, but will remain within a range of fluctuations.