According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8011 yuan/ton on March 31 and 8008 yuan/ton on April 3, a decrease of 0.04% during this period. The average price of LDPE (2426H) was 9633 yuan/ton on March 31st and 9633 yuan/ton on April 3rd, during which the quotation remained stable. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8387 yuan/ton on March 31 and 8337 yuan/ton on April 3, a decrease of 0.60% during this period.
Recently, polyethylene has undergone a narrow and weak adjustment. Market supply pressure remains, with expectations of an increase. Downstream demand fell short of expectations, with limited demand and lack of confidence in the market. Prices were mainly based on small discounts for shipments, and end-users were resistant to high priced goods. Recently, international oil prices have been relatively strong, with some support on the cost side, but there are insufficient favorable factors, and it is expected that polyethylene will continue to be weak.

The price of ethylene glycol fell in March
The price of ethylene glycol will decrease in March 2025. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of March 31, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4521.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% from the average price of 4681.67 yuan/ton on March 1.
On March 31, 2025, the basis of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol spot contract was relatively high, and the transaction price range for this week’s contract was between 4470-4504 yuan/ton (excluding collective transactions). This week’s spot contract basis quotation is+42 to+46, next week’s spot contract basis quotation is+51 to+53, and April’s spot contract basis quotation is+65 to+67.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 4220-4250 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of March 31st, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is 524-528 US dollars/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is 536 US dollars/ton.
Port inventory fluctuated horizontally in March
From January to mid February, there was a significant accumulation of ethylene glycol inventory in the port, and in March, the port inventory fluctuated horizontally. On March 27, 2025, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 680000 tons, an increase of 8800 tons compared to the total inventory of 671200 tons on March 3; Compared to December 30, 2024, the total inventory was 397300 tons, an increase of 282700 tons.
Recent favorable factors
Recently, international crude oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the drag of cost has slowed down. Coupled with the significant decline in ethylene glycol, the downward space has narrowed.
Starting from April, the planned maintenance volume for spring inspections has increased, and the expected domestic supply of ethylene glycol has weakened.
Recent bearish factors
There is news of a production reduction in downstream polyester, with weak terminal demand and doubts about the subsequent consumption demand for ethylene glycol.
Overall, it is expected that the probability of horizontal fluctuations in the future market of ethylene glycol will increase.

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fell at a low level in March, and the spot prices of most brands were lowered. As of April 1st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 15766 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -1.87% compared to early March.
cause analysis
On the supply side: In March, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises fluctuated slightly, and the current industry average operating level has increased by nearly 2% to 84% compared to the previous period. The average weekly production within the month remained at a super high level of nearly 70000 tons, and the on-site supply was very abundant. The mid stream inventory position is relatively high, and manufacturers’ shipments and auctions are weak. Factory prices continue to decrease, and the market supply side is not providing good support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A plummeted in March. Upstream acetone and phenol fluctuated after falling, and industry players have a more concerned attitude towards cost values. Although there are expectations of a contraction in the supply of bisphenol A in the future, the demand for bisphenol A is not strong, and there is still some downward pressure on prices. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is relatively negative.
On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall market in March continued to be at a light level before the holiday. The downstream factories have a lukewarm load, and the end enterprises are lagging behind in stocking up. The purchasing logic has remained at a weak level of rigid demand for a long time, and the supply-demand contradiction pattern continues to be profound. Merchants tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards low position positions, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. This has increased the pressure for businesses to sell. The circulation of goods in the market is slow, and the overall trading situation continues to be light. The demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market fell at a low level in March. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently continuing to decline, providing poor support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has increased slightly at a high level, and the supply is loose. The current downstream demand follow-up is still slow, and the market trading situation is not good. The market is about to enter the peak season for maintenance, which may stimulate some price stabilization operations. However, due to high inventory levels in the industry and a shortage of new orders on the market, there is significant pressure for sellers to sell their products. Therefore, it is expected that the PC market will continue to experience a difficult upward trend in the short term.

Zinc price in March
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31st, the zinc price was 23354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% from the zinc price of 23438 yuan/ton on March 1st. After fluctuating and rising within the range in March, zinc prices fell at the end of the month.
On a macro level, the disruptive effects of US tax policies have weakened compared to before. At the same time, Fed officials have stated that the job market remains relatively stable and that more time is needed to completely eliminate inflation. In this context, the US dollar index was able to maintain its rebound momentum, thereby exerting downward pressure on metal prices.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, the current zinc ore production is showing a recovery trend compared to the previous period, and there is no clear indication that ore supply expectations will be further disrupted. Against the backdrop of a rebound in processing fees (TC) and accumulation of raw material inventory, the smelting production in February remained at a relatively low level. However, driven by the increase in smelting profits, it is expected that smelting production will significantly increase after March or April. However, the recovery pace of downstream markets after the holiday is relatively slow, coupled with high prices leading to a narrowing of premiums and basis differences.
On the demand side, in the spot market, downstream enterprises have slow progress in resuming production and work, weak consumer performance, and strong market fear of high priced goods. Despite low inventory levels, which have prompted traders to maintain firm prices, the repair of the premium appears to be difficult. Overall, the consumption of zinc in China is showing a weak trend. From the perspective of the operating rate of primary consumption, several downstream industries of zinc in China, including galvanized sheet, galvanized parts, die cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide, have experienced a month on month decline in their capacity utilization rates. This indicates that although the market originally expected to enter the peak consumption season, the actual downstream consumption level did not meet this expectation.
Future forecast
In March, a series of positive policy signals were announced during the Two Sessions in China, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending this year, especially in the main areas of zinc consumption such as infrastructure and new energy, where targeted support measures will be provided. In addition, considering the arrival of the traditional peak consumption season of “gold three silver four”, the subsequent market demand is expected to gradually release, providing upward momentum for zinc prices. Therefore, it is expected that zinc prices will not experience a significant decline in the short term, but will remain within a range of fluctuations.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 28th, the price of 0 # zinc was 23820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% from the zinc price of 24148 yuan/ton on March 242.
This week’s market analysis
This week’s weak adjustment in spot zinc prices has led to active downstream purchasing.
Raw material end
With the continuous influx of imported zinc ore, the raw material inventory of refineries remains at a high level, and the domestic zinc ore production is gradually returning to normal operation, indicating a significant increase in zinc ore supply. In view of this, refineries tend to maintain stability or increase prices towards subsequent processing costs.
Supply and demand side
With the recovery of refined zinc ore processing fees on the supply side and high production enthusiasm from refineries, it is expected that production will increase.
On the demand side, the end consumer market continues to recover. The weak trend of zinc prices has prompted downstream terminal enterprises to seize the opportunity of low prices to replenish inventory, resulting in an increase in the inventory of galvanized raw materials. Northern enterprises that had previously reduced production due to environmental factors have now resumed production, effectively driving the overall operating rate to rebound.
Inventory end
Downstream procurement is relatively active, and social inventory is in a state of destocking.
comprehensive analysis
The increasing trend of supply side increment is becoming increasingly significant, while demand is still in the stage of gradual recovery, and downstream enterprises are mainly purchasing at low prices. The state of low-level destocking may be difficult to sustain, and the fundamental support is not strong. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to mainly consolidate at high levels.