In October, the domestic phenol market continued to weaken overall. After the National Day holiday, market participation was limited, downstream procurement enthusiasm was poor, and traders’ shipments were not smooth. The market fell by 300 yuan/ton in three working days, and the market experienced a broad downward trend. In the latter half of the year, the market remained poor and once again bottomed out. According to data monitored by Business Society, from the perspective of the East China market, the domestic phenol market price on October 1st was 6820 yuan/ton, and on October 30th it was 6450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.43%. All major mainstream markets in China have experienced similar fluctuations.
The prices of dual raw materials are declining, and there is a lack of support on the cost side. From the perspective of the pure benzene market, the local refining transactions are good, the Shandong East China arbitrage window remains open, the import volume is increasing, the supply side is loose, and the market is bottoming out. It is expected that the production reduction of domestic facilities in November will boost the market.
The production in October was 478500 tons, an increase of 9% compared to the previous month; In October, there were 6 sets of maintenance equipment involved, with a total production capacity of 1.2 million tons.
Downstream terminal factories have poor purchasing interest, low intention to submit urgent orders, and insufficient follow-up on trading. From the perspective of the downstream bisphenol A market, the overall trend is declining, with little inventory pressure and a downward focus.
In the later stage, in terms of equipment, it is expected that the first phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the phenol ketone unit of Ningbo Taihua will be shut down for maintenance in the next phase. Fuyu Chemical will resume operation as planned, and the Saudi Arabian contract will arrive in Hong Kong around early November. The overall supply may show an expected decrease. On the demand side, the demand for phenolic resin is mainly due to rigid demand, and the expected increase is not significant.
Business Society predicts that traders will still face significant pressure and may continue to bottom out next month. However, considering the weak unilateral market, there may be another cyclical upward and volatile trend in the middle.
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