In March, the domestic ammonia market reversed the previous month’s upward trend, with most regions of the country showing a downward trend. The main production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, and Lianghu have experienced significant declines. According to monitoring by Business Society, as of the end of the month, the drop in liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 8.88%. The main supply performance is tolerant, and the pressure of accumulated inventory by enterprises forces prices to continuously decrease; The combination of agricultural demand gaps and negative periods has led to a continuous decline in prices due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. At the end of the month, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was between 3850-4000 yuan/ton.

From a supply perspective, the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers is higher than last month, especially in the northern region where the equipment is operating normally. Large factories have accumulated inventory to guide manufacturers to continuously lower their listing prices. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the monthly reduction rate of manufacturers in Shandong region is within the range of 300 yuan/ton. Many devices in the southern region have gradually resumed production, and the increase in supply has further exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in the market.

On the demand side, the ammonia market in March reversed the supply shortage situation of the previous month. On the one hand, agricultural demand weakened, and on the other hand, industrial demand could not follow up in a timely manner, especially in the middle and late stages, with liquid ammonia prices gradually falling from their high points. From the perspective of downstream urea, according to the monitoring of Business Society, the trend of urea is weak, mainly fluctuating downward, with a monthly decline of 1.61%. Due to the retreat of agricultural demand, the peak season of returning to green manure has ended, and the procurement volume of composite fertilizers and board markets has declined. In addition, sectors such as ammonium chloride (-3.32%) and melamine (-4.23%) also experienced varying degrees of decline. The weakening of downstream demand support is an important reason for the decline of liquid ammonia.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the cost side also remains bearish. In particular, liquefied natural gas has plummeted significantly, with a monthly decline of 28.02%. The significant decline in natural gas has had a significant impact on ammonia companies in Southwest China, providing ammonia companies with the possibility of selling at reduced prices despite generally light market trading. The coal market maintains a weak range and adjusts, with prices hovering at relatively low levels. Overall, there is significant bearish pressure on the cost side of the ammonia market.

Future Market Forecast:

Analysts from Business Society believe that from a supply side perspective, ammonia companies had a high output in March, and due to the sluggish urea industry, there were relatively few urea conversion plants. This leads to a significantly weaker market for liquid ammonia compared to urea. The short-term demand side still faces pressure, with agricultural demand lagging behind and industrial demand lagging behind. Therefore, supply and demand are still weak in the near future. Combined with the negative impact brought by the downward trend of upstream raw material natural gas and weak coal, it is expected that liquid ammonia will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Business Agency: Domestic maleic anhydride market fluctuated and rose in March

According to data from Business News Agency, as of March 31, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 7740.00 yuan/ton (tax included), up 2.65% from 7540.00 yuan/ton on March 1.

The maleic anhydride commodity index stood at 72.91 on March 31, up 0.37 points from yesterday, down 56.19% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and up 42.46% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Most of the three domestic benzoic anhydride markets continue to be shut down. In the first ten days of March, downstream resin demand was stable, and some maleic anhydride manufacturers continued to shut down for maintenance. The manufacturers temporarily had no pressure to ship, and the price of maleic anhydride continued to rise. In late March, international crude oil fell sharply, while the upstream n-butane price continued to decline. Downstream resin costs and terminal performance were under pressure. There was limited enthusiasm for maleic anhydride replenishment, and the maleic anhydride market declined. As of the 31st day, the solid anhydride in Shandong region was about 7300 yuan/ton, that in Jiangsu region was about 7300 yuan/ton, and that in South China was about 7800 yuan/ton.

In early March, the price of crude oil rose, and China, as the largest importer and second largest consumer of crude oil, had a profound impact on the oil market. The recent strong performance of macroeconomic data has further strengthened market bullish expectations. The collapse of a Silicon Valley bank in the United States in mid March, coupled with the disappointing inflation report data from the United States, has raised concerns about financial risks in the market. In addition, the jitters of Credit Suisse have hit the financial market, putting pressure on risky assets such as stock markets and crude oil, as well as the negative impact of a more than expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and a decrease in China’s crude oil imports, which has subsequently dragged down crude oil prices. In the second half of the year, Iraq stopped exporting crude oil from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, while the impact of risks on the banking industry in Europe and the United States weakened, and the easing of supply and demand concerns drove up oil prices.

In March, the overall hydrogenation benzene market rose first, then fell, and finally experienced a narrow volatility trend. The market price fluctuated along with the trend of the pure benzene market. As of the 30th, the factory price in the main production area remained at 7150 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price in East China was at 7250-7300 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, recently, the profits of hydrogenation benzene enterprises are still remaining, and the operation is relatively active, with the operation rate maintaining a normal level. In terms of demand, downstream procurement is just needed, and the overall demand has not changed much. The recent trend mainly follows the fluctuations in the industrial chain.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

The maleic anhydride product analyst of the Business Society believes that the current domestic maleic anhydride market has a serious loss in the benzene oxidation process, with factories being shut down for maintenance, and there are few circulating sources of goods in the market; At the end of March, the upstream n-butane price of maleic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded, supporting the market cost of maleic anhydride; However, there are currently replenishment positions in the downstream market, with caution in pursuing higher prices and focusing on purchasing as needed. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may be dominated by consolidation in the near future.

According to the bulk list data of the Business Agency, as of March 30, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 7175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.87% compared to the price on March 1.

The acrylic acid market fell in March. In the first ten days, the price of raw material propylene fell first and then rose, with solid cost support. Supply side enterprises maintained a centralized overhaul, and market supply shrank. However, on the demand side, the purchasing mentality was cautious, and the intention to receive goods at the terminal was moderate. Market transactions were just in demand. The focus of acrylic acid negotiations was mainly on stability, with some enterprises’ prices increasing. In the middle and late stages of the market, the main decline was in the raw material propylene market, with weaker cost support and a slight increase in the operating rate compared to the previous period. However, the load of downstream plants and devices was not high, and the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials through market inquiry was low. The actual transaction volume in the market was weak, with a strong cautious wait-and-see mentality, and the price center of acrylic acid was sliding.

According to the bulk list data of the business news agency, the reference price of propylene on March 29 was 7096.60, a decrease of 5.66% compared to March 1 (7522.60).

Acrylic acid analysts from the Business Society believe that at present, the price of raw material propylene is rising, cost support is improving, downstream procurement is on demand, and the market atmosphere is general. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market may be light and wait for consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices.

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the price of boric acid has remained stable recently, with the average price of 7850.00 yuan/ton at the weekend.

Recently, the domestic boric acid market has remained stable due to fluctuations. Downstream demand is general, while the boric acid trading market fluctuates, and downstream bargains are sought. The boric acid manufacturer sets a price based on its own shipment situation, with a quotation range of 7500-8000 yuan/ton.

The price of boric acid imported from overseas is relatively high, with the current price range of 8300-9500 yuan/ton.

Boric acid analysts from the Business Agency believe that the recent domestic boric acid market has shown a trend of volatility and consolidation, with general market demand. It is expected that the market will mainly maintain stability in the future, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, yellow phosphorus market prices fell in March. At the beginning of the month, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 31500 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average price was 30550 yuan/ton. During the month, the price decreased by 3.02%.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus market prices fell in March. The manufacturer issues multiple early stage orders and does not quote externally. In the first half of the month, the market trading situation was light, the market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, the buying enthusiasm was not high, high-end prices were difficult to close, and market prices were lowered. In the second half of the month, the supply and demand of yellow phosphorus market remained relatively stagnant, and prices were temporarily stabilized and consolidated. Some manufacturers in Yunnan have completed maintenance and significantly increased their supply, but the price of raw phosphate rock has increased. The manufacturers are relatively resistant to low-end prices, and most enterprises do not offer prices to the outside world for the time being, maintaining solid order negotiations. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is around 28200-32000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated on a single basis.

As for phosphate rock, up to now, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 1180 yuan/ton, up 4.1% compared to March 1 (1074.00). At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock field is normal, and the spring planting season is approaching, and the terminal demand for phosphate rock will continue to recover. The phosphorus ore data analyst of the Business Agency believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly continue to operate in a stable, medium to strong manner, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, from March 10 to March 28, 2023, the coke market temporarily stabilized for two consecutive months, and as of March 17, the price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi was at 2482 yuan/ton, which was flat. Overall, the demand for downstream steel plants is still there, and the steady increase in supply by coke enterprises is still acceptable. It is difficult for coke enterprises to implement due to insufficient support for rising prices.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid fell in March. As of March 28, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8116.67 yuan/ton, which was 3.37% lower than the average price of 8400 yuan/ton on March 1. At present, the demand for phosphoric acid is low and the market is weak. The trend of raw material yellow phosphorus is stagnant, with phosphoric acid manufacturers and distributors mainly on the sidelines. In the absence of positive factors, it is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will continue to be weak in the short term, mainly through consolidation and operation.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some yellow phosphorus manufacturers in Guizhou, Yunnan, and other regions have completed maintenance, restoring production and supply significantly increased. Downstream demand is weak, and procurement is mainly driven by low prices and rigid demand. The yellow phosphorus market price fell this month. However, towards the end of the month, the upstream phosphate rock price increased, and cost support was acceptable. Manufacturers are relatively resistant to low end prices, and most enterprises do not offer external prices for the time being. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will continue to remain stagnant in the short term, and the actual transaction will be subject to single negotiation.