1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, yellow phosphorus market prices fell in March. At the beginning of the month, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 31500 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average price was 30550 yuan/ton. During the month, the price decreased by 3.02%.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus market prices fell in March. The manufacturer issues multiple early stage orders and does not quote externally. In the first half of the month, the market trading situation was light, the market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, the buying enthusiasm was not high, high-end prices were difficult to close, and market prices were lowered. In the second half of the month, the supply and demand of yellow phosphorus market remained relatively stagnant, and prices were temporarily stabilized and consolidated. Some manufacturers in Yunnan have completed maintenance and significantly increased their supply, but the price of raw phosphate rock has increased. The manufacturers are relatively resistant to low-end prices, and most enterprises do not offer prices to the outside world for the time being, maintaining solid order negotiations. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is around 28200-32000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated on a single basis.

As for phosphate rock, up to now, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 1180 yuan/ton, up 4.1% compared to March 1 (1074.00). At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock field is normal, and the spring planting season is approaching, and the terminal demand for phosphate rock will continue to recover. The phosphorus ore data analyst of the Business Agency believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly continue to operate in a stable, medium to strong manner, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, from March 10 to March 28, 2023, the coke market temporarily stabilized for two consecutive months, and as of March 17, the price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi was at 2482 yuan/ton, which was flat. Overall, the demand for downstream steel plants is still there, and the steady increase in supply by coke enterprises is still acceptable. It is difficult for coke enterprises to implement due to insufficient support for rising prices.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid fell in March. As of March 28, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8116.67 yuan/ton, which was 3.37% lower than the average price of 8400 yuan/ton on March 1. At present, the demand for phosphoric acid is low and the market is weak. The trend of raw material yellow phosphorus is stagnant, with phosphoric acid manufacturers and distributors mainly on the sidelines. In the absence of positive factors, it is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will continue to be weak in the short term, mainly through consolidation and operation.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some yellow phosphorus manufacturers in Guizhou, Yunnan, and other regions have completed maintenance, restoring production and supply significantly increased. Downstream demand is weak, and procurement is mainly driven by low prices and rigid demand. The yellow phosphorus market price fell this month. However, towards the end of the month, the upstream phosphate rock price increased, and cost support was acceptable. Manufacturers are relatively resistant to low end prices, and most enterprises do not offer external prices for the time being. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will continue to remain stagnant in the short term, and the actual transaction will be subject to single negotiation.

According to data from the Business News Agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market has declined this week. As of March 26, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7700.00 yuan/ton, down 1.16% from the price of 7790.00 yuan/ton on March 20, and up 0.26% from the same period last month.

On March 26, the maleic anhydride commodity index stood at 72.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 56.41% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and up 41.74% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Most of the domestic phenylmaleic anhydride market was shut down this week. Downstream resin costs and terminal performance have been depressed, with limited enthusiasm for maleic anhydride replenishment. As of the 26th, solid anhydride in Shandong was about 7300 yuan/ton, and solid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 7300 yuan/ton. There was no new price outflow from Shanxi and Hebei regions, while solid anhydride in South China was about 7800 yuan/ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene in the East China market rose in a narrow range, with few spot transactions, mainly for monthly transactions. The stable prices of main units have boosted the market, and there is insufficient room for price decline. Some downstream and traders in Shandong are bullish in the future. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was lowered to 7183.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week, and 7100 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.16%. The market for n-butane continued to decline this week, with the price of about 5100 yuan/ton in Shandong as of March 26.

The maleic anhydride product analyst at Business News believes that the price of n-butane in the upstream of maleic anhydride continued to decline this week, with weak market buying momentum; In addition, there is still a weak sentiment in downstream resins, so it is prudent to cover positions. Recently, there is strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market may be dominated by weak consolidation.

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) on March 20 was 8301 yuan/ton, and the average price on March 24 was 8237 yuan/ton. During the period, the decline was 0.77%, down 1.23% compared to March 1.

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of LDPE (2426H) on March 20 was 8966 yuan/ton, and the average price on March 24 was 8925 yuan/ton. During the period, the decline was 0.46%, down 1.60% from the quotation on March 1.

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8600 yuan/ton on March 20, and the average price on March 24 was 8600 yuan/ton. During the period, the quotation was flat, up 0.78% compared to March 1.

Polyethylene narrow range adjustment this week. LLDPE and LDPE quotations declined slightly, while HDPE quotations remained stable. On the cost side, the international crude oil price fell, which was negative for the domestic polyethylene market. On the supply side, the inventory of production enterprises declined on a month-on-month basis during the week, but supply pressure remained. Downstream demand, plastic film demand is in peak season, with many orders; Demand for greenhouse film is weak, and the increase in new orders is limited. Downstream procurement is mainly on demand, with little support.

Next week, Daqing Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, and Dushanzi Petrochemical plants will be shut down, and the new production capacity will continue to be put into operation; Downstream procurement is mainly on demand, with little support. Polyethylene analysts at the Business Club predict that polyethylene may be mainly adjusted in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus was slightly lowered this week. Last Thursday, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 30625 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 30550 yuan/ton. During the week, the price was reduced by 0.24%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus was slightly lowered this week. “The manufacturer issues multiple early stage orders, and most enterprises do not offer prices for the time being. Detailed discussions on actual orders will be conducted.”. At present, the supply and demand of yellow phosphorus market is still relatively stagnant, and overall, there are few transactions in the market, with prices slightly lowered. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is around 28200-32000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated on a single basis.

In terms of phosphate rock, according to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 23, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 1102 yuan/ton, representing a 0.92% increase in price compared to 1092 yuan on March 16. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is warm, the downstream demand side follows up well, and the mentality of the industry is well supported. The phosphorus ore data analyst of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly be high, stable, and consolidated, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke in Shandong Port is temporarily stable, with the quasi first level ex-warehouse price of around 2620-2650 yuan/ton and the first level ex-warehouse price of 2720-2750 yuan/ton. The port market atmosphere is weak, with strong wait-and-see sentiment, weak intention to gather at the port, and slightly cold trading. On the 23rd, Xiaoyi arrived at Rizhao Port at 190 yuan/ton and Jiexiu arrived at Rizhao Port at 190 yuan/ton. The market atmosphere was on the wait-and-see side, the intention to gather at the port was on the low side, and the freight price was operating at a low level.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid was lowered this week. Last Thursday, the average price of phosphoric acid was 8216 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 8150 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased slightly, with a range of 0.81%. This week, the market performance of phosphoric acid around the country was flat, and yellow phosphorus still maintained a small amount of on-demand procurement.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that at present, the upstream phosphate rock price has improved, the coke market price has temporarily stabilized, and cost support is acceptable, with yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly relying on price increases. The downstream market is dominated by demand, and the supply and demand sides are deadlocked on the sidelines. Overall, there are fewer transactions in the market. It is expected that in the short term, the yellow phosphorus market will continue to maintain a stalemate trend, with limited adjustment space, and focus on changes in the news.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, on March 17th, the domestic carbon black market quoted 11500 yuan/ton, and this week the domestic carbon black market price remained stable.

Cost: This week, the overall operation of the domestic high-temperature coal tar market was weak, while downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises were still operating at a loss. The market was affected by buying up and not buying down. Downstream enterprises were cautious in signing new orders, and the transaction atmosphere was light. The downstream market continues to hold down prices and there is a lot of negative sentiment in the market. Currently, the mainstream price of high-temperature coal tar in the market is 5000 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the coal tar market will continue to operate in a weak manner in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Currently, the operating rate of carbon black enterprises has decreased, and some factories and devices have been overhauled. Later, the market supply may decrease again. However, due to the weak price of raw materials, downstream enterprises are mostly bullish on the aftermarket of carbon black, resulting in weak supply and demand in the carbon black market,

In terms of downstream tire enterprises, the overall operating rate has increased, the demand for downstream tire and rubber industries has remained stable, the demand for terminal tire industries is weak, the enthusiasm of enterprises to take goods is moderate, and there is still resistance to the current carbon black price, and the trading atmosphere in the primary market for procurement is general.

Overall, the price of high-temperature coal tar as a raw material is weak, and the support for carbon black prices is weakened. Downstream enterprises mainly ship orders in the early stage, and the demand for carbon black has weakened. The market purchasing sentiment is not high. It is comprehensively expected that the carbon black market will operate stably and weakly in the short term.