I. trend analysis
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic cobalt price fell sharply after the festival. As of October 14, the price of cobalt was 286500.00 yuan / ton, down 4.61% from the average price of 300333.34 yuan / ton on October 1. The poor performance of new energy vehicles in September triggered panic in cobalt market, and the price of cobalt fell.
II. Market analysis
1. The rise of international cobalt price slows down
MB cobalt price tends to stabilize
It can be seen from the table that the price of MB cobalt rose slightly in October, while the international cobalt price is still in the rising stage, but the driving effect of international cobalt price on domestic cobalt market is weakened, and the domestic cobalt price has lost the momentum of rising.
Increase of cobalt price in LME Market
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It can be seen from the figure that the price of cobalt in LME market has fallen in shock since the end of September. The fall of international cobalt price is bad for domestic cobalt price, and the downward pressure of domestic cobalt market has increased.
Sales of new energy vehicles fell 16% year on year in September
According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in September was 80000, down 34.2% year-on-year, which has been down for three consecutive months. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 872000, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, and the growth rate was significantly lower than that from January to August. In September, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 63000, a year-on-year decrease of 33.1%; the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 17000, a year-on-year decrease of 38.4%. From January to September, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 692000, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8%; the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 179000, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; the sales volume of fuel cell vehicles was 1251, a year-on-year increase of 7.6 times. The sales volume of new energy vehicles fell for three months in a row, with an increasing trend of decline. The sales volume of new energy vehicles did not recover continuously. There was a certain negative voice in the market, and the prospect of new energy vehicles in cobalt city was expected to decrease in the future. Future demand is expected to decline, which is bad for the cobalt market.
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III. future prospects
Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business club, believes that the rise of international cobalt price will not fall again, which will have a negative impact on domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price is under pressure. In terms of demand, new energy vehicles fell sharply year on year for three consecutive months. The market of new energy vehicles did not improve and the decline was expanding, which triggered panic in the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price fell sharply. But in the future, new energy vehicles are still the trend in the future. 5g products are full of growth momentum. The supply agreement between Glencore and Greenwich makes the supply gap caused by the reduction of production increase. The reduction of market mobile cobalt inventory has a certain positive impact on cobalt price. Generally speaking, cobalt market has no obvious upward momentum in the near future, and the downward pressure is increasing, but the prospect of future cobalt market is still promising, and the increase of cobalt cost also determines the limited space for cobalt price to fall, and it is expected that the future cobalt price will fluctuate broadly and maintain stability.
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