I. price trend
According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of propylene oxide has been rising recently. On Tuesday (October 8), the average price of enterprises was 10300 yuan / ton, on October 15, the average price of enterprises was 10500 yuan / ton, and the increase of propylene oxide on October 8 was 1.94%. On the 15th, the main quotation of propylene oxide in China was 10300-10800 yuan / ton.
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II. Analysis of influencing factors
Product: the market of propylene oxide is up in the near future. On August 8, the average price of propylene oxide was about 10300 yuan / ton. During the festival, the downstream demand improved, the manufacturer’s inventory was low, and under the support of raw material cost, the price of the goods was up. On October 10, the average price of propylene oxide rose to about 10366.67 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s inventory was not under pressure. The focus of negotiation was pushed upward. The downstream was cautious in the operation of propylene oxide, and the procurement was just needed. On the 14th, the average price of propylene oxide rose to about 10500 yuan / ton. Some propylene oxide manufacturers reduced the maintenance load. The price of propylene oxide rose slightly, but the follow-up of new downstream orders was insufficient. On the 15th, a major factory was fully loaded, and the market of propylene oxide was mainly stable, while the inventory of some factories was low, and the quotation was raised. As of the 15th, the cash delivery price of Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical is 10500 yuan / ton, and that of East China mainstream market is 10800 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is about 10250 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is about 10200 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in South China is about 10200 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash.
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Industrial chain: Recently, the market price (10.8-10.15) of the upstream propylene in Shandong increased by 1.52%. At the beginning of October, it was the National Day holiday. Due to the impact of the policy of limiting production and operation, the price of propylene remained stable during the holiday, with occasional downward trend. After the end of the policy, most of the initial prices remained stable. On the 10th and 11th, the prices of enterprises rose. On the 12th, the prices stabilized. On the 13th, 14th and 15th, they all rose slightly. At present, the market turnover is about 7500-7700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7500 yuan / ton. On the 15th, the market situation of the downstream polyether market was stable for the time being, with the positive shipping mentality of the shippers as the main factor and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The downstream market of n-propanol was stable on May 15.
3. Future forecast:
Propylene oxide analysts believe that the raw material propylene rose slightly, with strong cost support. The maintenance and load reduction of some propylene oxide manufacturers is an important factor in the rise of propylene oxide. However, the pressure purchasing of downstream plants is still weak to digest high price raw materials, and the space for propylene oxide to continue to rise is restricted by the lack of downstream gas buying. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market will maintain a stalemate finishing pattern.
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