I. price trend:
According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, in late November, the market of PA6 in China was weak and stable, with some brand quotations falling. As of November 22, the main offer price of CCCC 2.75-2.85 was about 12733.33 yuan / ton, down 1.55% from the beginning of the week.
II. Analysis of influencing factors:
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The decline of caprolactam upstream of PA6 has continued since November. At present, caprolactam production enterprises are losing money and the operating rate of production units is decreasing. Raw material pure benzene prices fell this month, domestic bearish sentiment increased. In East China, pure benzene market negotiation went higher, some offers were slightly higher, port inventory remained low, the external price of pure benzene continued to rise and boost, it was difficult to find low price supply in the market, and the short-term market was strong. China’s cyclohexanone market plunged sharply, and the intention to make up the position of terminal demand was low, so we should be more cautious and wait-and-see, and the trading volume of chemical fiber single and solvent single in the market was small. Due to the pressure of inventory and delivery, the mainstream factories keep reducing their quotations. Domestic caprolactam upstream raw material product supply increase cost support weakened, downstream procurement cautious. Although the output has declined, there are many stocks in the market at present, the market supply exceeds the demand, and the terminal demand is insufficient. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will continue to fall in the later period, and the upstream caprolactam will continue to weaken, weakening the support for PA6. At present, the market demand for PA6 has not improved, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not good, the on-site trading is light, the factory traders operate cautiously, and the confidence is not strong. There are few large-scale purchases in the domestic market in the near future.
3. Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that: the recent domestic PA6 market weak and stable adjustment operation, some spot prices slightly reduced. The trend of caprolactam in the upstream is not good, and the support for PA6 cost end is not good. The downstream replenishment operation is cautious, with rigid demand as the main factor. PA6 is expected to remain weak in the near future.
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