I. price trend:
In November 2019, crude benzene market went up all the way. The factory price in North China was 4145 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4293.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.58%.
On November 30, crude benzene commodity index was 68.75, flat with yesterday, 47.85% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 75.16% higher than 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
II. Market analysis:
Domestic market: in the first half of November, affected by the poor delivery of pure benzene market, the overall trend of crude benzene industry chain declined, and the market price decreased by 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous period. The poor delivery of pure benzene market significantly depressed the crude benzene market, and the crude benzene market as a whole was stable, moderate and small. About the middle of the year, the downstream hydrobenzene enterprises began to resume operation. The demand for raw material crude benzene is increasing. Due to factors such as limited production in heating season, coking enterprises are facing tight spot supply in the market, and the crude benzene market is rising steadily under the influence of multiple favorable factors. In the late November, in order to maintain stable production, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have better purchase of crude benzene. At present, the coking enterprises are starting to decline, and the supply of crude benzene market is slightly tight. With the increase of hydrogenated benzene enterprises starting to work at the end of the month, the crude benzene market is increasing The demand for benzene has further increased. The bidding price of crude benzene has remained high and consolidated near the end of the month, and there is limited space for the short-term decline of crude benzene.
Industry chain: crude oil: crude oil in this month showed an overall upward trend of shock, WTI oil price increased by 7.25% compared with last month, Brent oil price increased by 6.04% compared with last month. Negative: trade risk, US crude oil inventory increase. Good: OPEC may continue to extend production reduction, economic data will be good, and crude oil inventory in the United States will be reduced. Pure benzene: this month, the range of pure benzene fluctuates in a narrow range. This month, the tight domestic spot supply of pure benzene led to the short supply, which led to a slight recovery in the price of pure benzene; the port inventory continued to be below 100000 tons, and the port to ship situation was also very limited, the market low-cost resources were hard to find, and the mentality of reluctant to sell increased.
3. Trend forecast:
East China is greatly affected by the export of pure benzene. The port petroleum benzene inventory is relatively low. The export of pure benzene continues to rise, boosting the market. The hydrogenated benzene enterprises are mostly in a loss state in the near future, but the start-up is relatively stable. The supply of the upstream coking enterprises is slightly tight in the near future, and the price of crude benzene is relatively strong in the short term due to multiple factors.