I. price trend
According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the trichloromethane market in Shandong Province fluctuated greatly in November. At the beginning of the month, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong Province was 1960 yuan / ton, the highest value in the middle of the month was 2650 yuan / ton, an increase of 35.2%. At the end of the month, it fell to 2300 yuan / ton, a decrease of 13.21% compared with the highest value, and the overall increase in the month was 17.35%.
II. Cause analysis
Product reason: at the beginning of November, affected by the low level of construction in the region, Shandong continued to rise at the end of October, the price of chloroform soared all the way, and the market started at a low level. Among them, 280000t / a plant maintenance in Dongyue, Shandong Province was completed in the middle of November, 440000t / a plant maintenance in Jinling, Shandong Province was completed in the middle of November, and Luxi Chemical industry continued to carry out 60% of foreign trade orders, and the spot supply in the industry was tight, which was completed in the middle of the month After that, all enterprises resumed normal production. In addition, the supply of Dongying Jinmao No.1 40000 t / a plant was increasing gradually. In addition, the price of chloroform in Shandong continued to decline in the traditional low season of chloroform. At present, the price in the region is about 2200 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi Liwen is about 2850 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 3800 yuan / ton.
Industry chain: in the upstream, the methanol market is restrained first and then lifted, with obvious regional trend, with an overall decline of 1.48% in the month. At present, 2145 yuan / ton is around; the liquid chlorine market is operated by supply promotion, with a downward shock in the month, and the enterprise’s quotation continues to decline. At present, about 200-500 yuan / ton is over reported, and some enterprises still stick to shipping. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is in the traditional off-season, the market share of rationing basically bottomed out, and rebounded within the month; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be flat, and the price of chloroform is generally supported.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November 2019, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 8 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (67.31%), propanone (36.29%) and isopropanol (26.96%). There are 58 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 18 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 31.74%), aniline (- 19.11%) and caustic soda (- 18.56%).
III. future forecast
According to the methane chloride data analyst of business association, at present, trichloromethane is in the traditional off-season, the downstream market demand is not good and there is no obvious sign of recovery in a short period of time. In addition, the supply of trichloromethane in Shandong Province is gradually recovering. Under the condition that the supply exceeds the demand, the price of trichloromethane is expected to gradually decline.