PTA suddenly rose in a straight line in the afternoon on Christmas Eve, jumping from 4900 yuan / ton to 4950 yuan / ton. Although it is not unusual for PTA to see a rise of less than 2%, the market generally tends to be short when new capacity is put into centralized production, which is unexpected. According to the current news, the rising price of raw material PX in the day is the main reason, but it is expected to be short-term performance, and the long-term line is mainly short-term.
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1. PTA accident caused by rising raw materials
According to Zhuo Chuang information, on the afternoon of the 24th, the delivery price of any February shipment of p-xylene in Asia was 832 US dollars / ton CFR China, and that of any March shipment was 822 US dollars / ton CFR China, and that of any March shipment was 822 US dollars / ton CFR China. On the eve of the Christmas holiday, the enthusiasm for buying on the market has been greatly improved, and the trading atmosphere is active. Overall, PX prices closed at $831 / T CFR China today, up $13 / T. Due to the smooth operation of the PX units of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengyi Brunei, and the successful supply of raw materials to the downstream PTA units, the price of PX has been under pressure, but due to the influence of the festival, the trading atmosphere has increased, and the rise of PX price is expected to be a short-term behavior. In terms of PTA increase, PTA cost corresponding to $13 PX increased by 70 yuan / ton, consistent with the closing price increase of the market. At present, the processing cost of PTA is less than 450 yuan / ton, so the price sensitivity to the fluctuation of raw materials has increased. It can be seen that the unexpected rise in the afternoon is directly related to the rise in the price of raw materials.
2. PTA meets the peak of production again
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In 2012-2014, PTA experienced centralized production capacity, continuous price decline, and long-term low industry processing costs. In 2015-2018, the growth rate of PTA capacity in China slowed down, and the problem of overcapacity was gradually solved with the elimination of old devices and the increase of consumption. In 2017-2019, PTA ushered in the stage of tight balance between supply and demand, and the industry profit was significantly rebounded. From the end of 2019, 2.2 million tons of new Fengming phase I (invested), 2.5 million tons of Hengli phase IV (December 2019), 1.2 million tons of Zhongtai Kunyu (1.2 million tons) and 2.5 million tons of Hengli phase V (the second quarter of 2020), a large number of giant devices have been put into production, and the rapid increase of supply will bring obvious pressure. In the later period, 2.2 million tons of new Fengming phase II, 2.2 million tons of Fujian Baihong, 2.4 million tons of Honggang petrochemical, 3 million tons of Yisheng new materials, etc Large scale units will be put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2020, so PTA supply pressure will continue to rise in the long term, and the price is mainly weak.
In combination with the above two points, PTA’s sudden and rapid growth in the day is mainly driven by the rise of raw materials, but it is expected that PX’s rise will be short-term and difficult to sustain; PTA will once again usher in the peak of production capacity, with high supply pressure and weak prices.
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