1、 Price trend
This week, the domestic butadiene market is still in a weak downward trend. According to the prices monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 5845 yuan / ton, while the domestic butadiene market price at the end of the week was 5578 yuan / ton, down 4.56% in the week, down 11.71% month on month, down 35.10% year on year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
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Product: this week, the domestic butadiene market is still weak, and the supply price of the northern export manufacturers is gradually declining in the week. In addition, the low-cost transaction news in East China repeatedly came out, dragging merchants’ mentality to continue to be bearish. Due to the impact of public health events, the shrinking terminal demand in the European market led to the excess supply of butadiene, the price of FOB fell sharply, and there are many sources of goods to offer to the Asian market, bringing some drag on the Asian and Chinese market. The domestic butadiene supply is abundant and the downstream synthetic rubber inventory is high under pressure. The weak market supply and demand leads to the low downstream inquiry intention. The low price transaction news in East China drags the market center down. In terms of price, the delivery price in Shandong Province is 5450-5500 yuan / ton; the delivery price in East China market is 5200-5400 yuan / ton. Although some businesses are offered slightly higher due to the high cost of warehouse holding, it is difficult to have a single support temporarily.
In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s butadiene price in East China has been reduced by 800 yuan / ton to 5700 yuan / ton in total; Liaotong chemical’s 260 tons of butadiene have been auctioned at a base price of 5310 yuan / ton, of which 208 tons have a trading range of 5310-5318 yuan / ton, and the rest 52 tons have been auctioned; Dalian Hengli’s 140000 ton / year butanediene unit is in normal operation, with a price drop of 700 yuan / ton to 5010 yuan / ton on a month-on-month basis; Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, has 70000 tons/ The annual oxidative dehydrogenation unit is in normal operation with the quotation of 5000 yuan / ton, and there is a little space for negotiation in the actual order; the 100000 ton / year oxidative dehydrogenation unit of Jiangsu silbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down on February 28 or so, and the restart time may be postponed to the middle of April; the 64000 ton / year butadiene unit of Shenhua Ningxia Coal Co., Ltd. will be shut down from March 13 to 20, and now it is in normal operation with the quotation of 4820 yuan / ton; the butadiene unit of Maoming Petrochemical Co., Ltd The maintenance plan may continue to be postponed to the first ten days of May. At present, its 10000 ton / year plant will be shut down.
Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: this week, the mainstream factory prices of domestic sales companies of styrene butadiene rubber have been falling, with a cumulative decline of 700 yuan / ton. The main factory supply price of domestic styrene butadiene 1502 dropped to 8500-8700 yuan / ton. The start-up rate of styrene butadiene unit is stable around 5.80%; Qilu, Yangzi, Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua, Weitai and Bridgestone styrene butadiene units are all in normal operation; Shenhua styrene butadiene unit continues to reduce the negative operation; in addition, Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical styrene butadiene rubber units continue to stop.
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Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: this week, the factory price of domestic mainstream sales company gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell, with the mainstream drop of 800 yuan / ton; the main factory supply of domestic gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell to 8200-8600 yuan / ton, only the second wave of decline in other regions was not followed in Northwest China. The operation rate of domestic high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant was maintained around 6.0%. During the cycle, Yanshan cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant operated in a negative way, while other mainstream cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants operated normally. The overall operation rate of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber industry was slightly lower than that of the previous cycle.
3、 Future forecast
On the positive side, there is no significant decline in the start-up of major downstream industries, and there is rigid demand in the northern downstream. On the negative side, the domestic spot market is still abundant, the European market supply is under pressure, the inventory of the downstream rubber industry is high, and the external market is full of low price news. At present, the domestic butadiene spot supply is abundant, but the export situation of downstream products market is not good, and the high inventory of synthetic rubber industry in the middle end of the industrial chain is under pressure; moreover, the European butadiene supply is abundant recently, and the market is full of low-price news, which obviously drags the mentality of domestic merchants. At the same time, the news of low price transaction spread in the domestic market, dragging the overall decline of butadiene market. The supply and demand fundamentals of internal and external market are hard to be supported by good news in the short term. Butadiene analysts of the business agency predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market continues to be weak downward trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the guidance of internal and external market transaction news.
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