1、 Price trend
In March, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was greatly affected by the crude oil slump, mainly following the decline. At the beginning of the month, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas market was 3700 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 2706.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 26.85% in the price within the month, 32.28% lower than the same period last year.
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In March, the price of domestic liquefied gas market dropped significantly. As of March 31, the export price of Guangzhou Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2400 yuan / ton, Jingmen Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2700 yuan / ton, Shanghai Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2470 yuan / ton, Gaoqiao Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2450 yuan / ton, Qingdao Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2500 yuan / ton, Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2820 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2700 yuan / ton Tons per ton. The factory price of Luoyang Petrochemical LPG is 2750 yuan / ton.
International crude oil: in March, the international crude oil market staged an amazing avalanche, and the price suffered a “cut back”. According to the data monitored by the business agency, WTI crude oil fell by 57.34%, Brent crude oil fell by nearly 50%. The oil price collapse is naturally one of the “black swan” events in 2020. There are two main reasons: the sharp reduction of global demand caused by social and public events, and the supply risk caused by the “price war” of Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase production.
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This month, the trend of liquefied gas is mostly affected by the collapse of international crude oil, and the market trend is sharply down. At the beginning of the month, although the CP price fell in March, it fell less than expected, which brought certain benefits to the market. Coupled with the rebound of international crude oil, downstream market access improved, manufacturers shipped smoothly, and prices rose slightly. But then crude oil plummeted, and the market was in a bad mood. The downstream markets withdrew one after another to wait and see. In the middle of the month, crude oil plummeted again, hitting the market obviously, manufacturers kept making profits, and the shipment situation slightly improved. Then, with the retaliatory rebound of crude oil and the growth of market demand, the LPG market ushered in the rising market again. However, the positive results are limited. At the end of the month, with the crude oil exploring again, and under the influence of the sharp fall of CP price expectation in April, liquefied gas turned back to the downward trend again. At present, although the terminal demand has improved, it has not fully recovered, and the contradiction between market supply and demand is still in progress.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, the price of bulk commodities in the list of energy sector rose one commodity month on month, with LNG (7.42%) rising. There are 15 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 81.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 57.34%), Brent crude oil (- 48.93%) and liquefied gas (- 26.85%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 19.01%.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the market demand has increased but the increase is limited, and the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. After the introduction of CP price in April, propane fell by $200 / T, butane fell by $240 / T, although the drop was smaller than expected. At present, liquefied gas has fallen to a relatively low level, and manufacturers have a clear attitude of market protection. The trend in April may be expected to rise.
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