1、 Price trend
This week (4.13-17), the domestic polysilicon market fell sharply, and the prices of polycrystalline compact materials and polycrystalline non washable materials declined to varying degrees. The main reason is that the manufacturer’s quotation was greatly reduced due to the impact of inventory pressure, and then the demand side problem. Affected by the epidemic, the downstream purchase demand further shrank, and the export orders of components significantly shrank, so the market price is still low this week, The price of new orders in the market dropped a lot. According to the monitoring of the business agency, this week’s polycrystalline silicon solar grade I material fell by 7.8%, and the price of polycrystalline silicon has maintained a downward trend for four consecutive weeks.
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2、 Market analysis
In terms of market supply, at present, polysilicon is in abundant supply, and the manufacturer’s devices are partially shut down. The overall domestic operation rate remains at 80-90%. As of April 17, only 1-2 polysilicon manufacturers in China maintain maintenance or load reduction production, and the domestic production maintains a high operation rate. In addition, the polysilicon import end shows a tightening trend, and the polysilicon production capacity of South Korea is still not restored, which also eases the domestic supply pressure to a certain extent, and plays a buffer role in the current weak polysilicon market. At present, manufacturers mainly execute orders in the early stage. Most enterprises sign orders until May, and some enterprises sign orders in May. In addition, the market transportation pressure is not great, but affected by the increase of transportation cost, the delivery speed of manufacturers decreases. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the main domestic transaction price of polysilicon with the model of primary solar material is 45000-49000 yuan / ton.
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From the perspective of demand, terminal demand is sluggish and continues to decline. The downstream operating rate remains at a low level in a phased manner. Some newly built single crystal production capacity is delayed due to the impact of the epidemic, and domestic production remains stable. At present, there is no release of new production capacity, which also alleviates the pressure brought by the supply end to some extent. On the other hand, the demand for polycrystals is also slightly stable due to the gradual recovery of the operating rate of downstream single crystal enterprises currently in production, but the export of terminal components is still the biggest problem restricting the entire silicon industry chain.
3、 Future prospects
In the future, the business community believes that the polysilicon supply pressure is becoming more and more prominent at present, but in the later stage, it is not ruled out that the supply pressure caused by the deterioration of the external environment will continue to increase. On the one hand, domestic enterprises will gradually return to work, and the downstream operation rate will slightly increase. The domestic operation rate will remain relatively high. On the other hand, the trend of overseas epidemic is becoming increasingly severe, and the combination of overseas anti Chinese photovoltaic products With the increase of dumping, the export will still bring many challenges in the future, so it is expected that polysilicon market will maintain a narrow downward trend in the near future.
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