According to the data monitored by the business association, in June, the domestic PP market trend was more volatile, with different brand materials rising and falling. As of June 22, the main offer price of T30S (drawing) by domestic producers and traders was about 7850.00 yuan / ton, up 2.61% from the average price at the beginning of the month.
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Cause analysis
In terms of propylene upstream of polypropylene, the domestic propylene market strengthened again in the third week of June after the price correction in the middle of the year. According to the price of business agency, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) dropped by 350 yuan / ton in the second week of June. But at the beginning of the weekend, the market price rose steadily until the third week, with the initial price of 6605 yuan / ton; on Friday, the weekly price was 6876 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.10%. To 22, the current market transaction price is between 6850-7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, propylene manufacturers have no inventory pressure, but due to the strong upward trend, the buyer’s operation is more cautious and the delivery situation is general. In terms of industrial chain, the international crude oil market is slightly up, while the downstream market is generally weak, so it is expected that the propylene price will start to decline in recent days.
Upstream propylene has a strong trend in the near future, compared with the current PP (wire drawing) market can be considered to be more implicit, but the market direction is still strong performance. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the highest point of the month is 7850.00 yuan / ton on June 18, and the lowest point is 7650.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. At this stage, the increase amplitude is 2.61%. The index shows that the spot price of domestic PP (brushed) fluctuates upward. In terms of supply, at present, a number of units have not been restarted, and the operation rate of powder materials has also dropped. In addition, PP has been helped to recover demand, petrochemical inventory has been reduced smoothly, and there is an expectation of supply decline in the field. In terms of port inventory, the main domestic polyolefin ports reported a total volume of 265400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 169900 tons. Downstream factories are more resistant to high-priced goods, which are mainly used as they go, and there is no large volume of delivery and investment. In the near future, the restart date of some devices is approaching, and the mentality of merchants has been affected to a certain extent.
According to the data monitored by the business association, as of June 22, the main offer price of Z30S (fiber) by domestic producers and traders was about 7850.00 yuan / ton. It is 1.29% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month. At present, the domestic price of PP (fiber) is in line with the pace of PP (drawing). The lowest point is 7750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and then the operation is going up. Looking back on the speculation atmosphere of fiber materials in April, which resulted in a certain overproduction, the market atmosphere cooled rapidly in May, and digested a lot of hidden inventory. In terms of the current market, the “debt repayment” market of PP (fiber) material “retaliation” has become the past. The market in June objectively reflects the law of supply and demand prices, which is similar to PP (drawing) market in all aspects.
The market of PP melt blown materials is unsatisfactory. At present, the price of PP (melt blown) materials in China has declined significantly. According to the price of the business agency, as of Friday, June 19, the average price of melt blown PP for melt blown index 1500 by sample enterprises was 22000 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 4.07%. Compared with the previous two months, June’s meltblown material spot can be said to be “falling to the altar”. Recent public health events show signs of rebound at home, and the international side has continued to deepen its development. Demand enhancement should be beneficial to the market. The reasons for not rising but falling melt blown cloth and materials are various.
A large number of enterprises began to flow into the production line of melt blown cloth and materials after, which is the starting point of all. However, the current domestic public health events are generally stable, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials is declining rapidly, which results in the periodic oversupply. However, in the early stage of the industry boom, the products lack of standards and profits, and the high-quality export regulations block some small and medium-sized enterprises with general technical capabilities, which shows that the health of the industry is worrying. The craziness of the industry has attracted the attention of the government. The production of melt blown cloth in many places across the country is undergoing rectification. Some substandard equipment can only be converted to products such as diapers. At the same time, most of the prices of epidemic prevention related products have fallen recently, such as isopropanol, one of the raw materials of disinfectants, which dropped by 4.60% in the third week of June, which also reflects the dispersion of demand for epidemic prevention materials. Before the outbreak of public health events, there were not so many participants in the production of melt blown materials. Now, the price “diving” is actually caused by the imbalance between supply and demand.
Future forecast
PP analysts of business club think: the domestic PP spot market is stronger in the third week of June. The upstream propylene market is stronger and the price is high, which strongly supports PP. PP (drawing) is mainly rigid, and PP (fiber) is also rigid and strong. PP (melt blown) demand weakens and the price drops sharply. At present, the stock reduction of petrochemical plants is smooth, the inventory is low compared with the same period last year, and the price of field memory is willing to rise. PP is generally helped by the recovery of demand, and supply is tight in the field. The downstream factory’s operating rate is not high, and the orders for goods preparation are used and purchased at any time, which contradicts the high price goods. The mentality of merchants is stable for the time being, and the actual trading is average. There are many restart devices in the near future, and it is expected that the supply will improve. The PP market may narrow or even callback the increase. It is suggested to pay attention to the further trend of the supply and demand side.
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