Due to tight supply and external market pull up, butadiene market price rose broadly in July

The domestic butadiene market rose widely in July, especially in the second half of the month. According to the monitoring price of business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 3445 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 4473 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 29.83% during the month, and a decrease of 49.68% compared with the same period last year.


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In July, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated upward, and the growth rate accelerated in the last ten days of the month. In the first half of the month, Tianjin Zhongsha and North Huajin plants were restarted, and it was difficult to see a significant improvement in the market supply side, and the wavelet rise in the first ten days was not continued. However, due to the strong performance of the external market and the limited quantity of domestic suppliers, the release of market supply was less than expected; meanwhile, affected by the weather, some ships in East China delayed unloading, and the spot supply was temporarily tight, which boosted the supplier’s price and accelerated the price rise. The short-term bullish expectation stimulated the positive inquiry of downstream, and some of them had chasing up sentiment, which further promoted the market to climb up. However, with the rapid rise of the market, the cautious atmosphere of the market is gradually rising. At the end of the month, the arrival of ships to Hong Kong and the increase of northeast supply, the high price transaction was hindered, and the market dropped slightly.


In terms of enterprises, Sinopec East China butadiene supply rose by 1100 yuan / ton to 4700 yuan / ton on a month-on-month basis; Huajin butadiene plant in northern China was shut down for a short time within a month, and the online export source was significantly reduced, with the node price of 4560 yuan / ton as of July 30; the 200000 ton / year butadiene unit of Sinopec was shut down for maintenance on May 9, and the operation was restarted around July 10, with a small amount of goods exported; and Inner Mongolia Jiutai 70000 yuan / T The butadiene unit of Dalian Hengli Co., Ltd. was shut down around July 13 with no clear restart plan, and the inventory was normally exported; Dalian Hengli 140000 T / a butadiene plant was in stable operation, with the listing price of 4510 yuan / T as of July 31, an increase of 1200 yuan / T compared with the same period of last month; the 120000 T / a butadiene extraction unit in Liaoning Baolai may be put into operation in early August, so it is suggested to pay attention to the output.


In terms of industrial chain, downstream SBR: in July, the domestic SBR Market showed a downward trend and then an upward trend. As the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber rose to the recent high at the end of June, but after entering July, due to no real positive boost, the rise was difficult to sustain. Moreover, with the low price of raw materials and the high start-up of each styrene butadiene production enterprise, the supply of styrene butadiene rubber is still abundant; downstream factories enter the traditional off-season, and under the bearish market, the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, only to maintain the just demand; the market has successively appeared profit-making lower, causing obvious drag on the market, and gradually lower the trading center. After entering the late July, the ex factory and market prices of styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) basically fell back to the previous low level. At this time, the butadiene price rebounded upward and the market attention increased. In addition, the high level of natural rubber boosted the mentality of the industry gradually turned to be better, and the low output in the market was reduced. The manufacturers increased the price significantly and watched the new moon’s price guidance. The downstream maintained a wait-and-see attitude and resisted the high-priced goods, so the actual order continued discuss.


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Br: in July, the overall performance of the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market rebounded after falling. During the month, Yanshan and Qilu Shunding rubber units were shut down for maintenance, the supply was narrowed, and the good was released ahead of time, and the supplier pushed up the price of June; after entering July, the maintenance news came to the ground, but little impact on the market; the butadiene price remained low, and the cost side was empty; the start-up situation of tires and other equipment did not change much, and the price of cis-1-butadiene was in a deep decline, the downstream procurement progress was not big, so the price was pushed down Most of them are in the market; after the bad luck intensified, the low price of Shunding market is frequent, especially the inverted hanging range of some private Shunding prices is larger than the unit price of two oil companies, and the market falls into a strong bearish mood. The butadiene price rebounded slightly in the last ten days. Considering the factors such as the price difference between Shanghai Rubber and Shanghai rubber, the market began to show a slightly stable trend, and stopped falling in the later period, and there were signs of a narrow rebound until the end of the month.


According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in July 2020, there were 32 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose on a month on month basis, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate. The top three commodities that increased were sulfuric acid (42.50%), butadiene (29.83%) and propane (14.43%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.9% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were acetone (- 38.02%), phenol (- 19.93%) and isopropanol (- 18.75%). This month, the average rise and fall was – 0.47%.


In the future, the domestic butadiene market rose rapidly in late July, but the downstream follow-up was slightly insufficient. High price transaction was hindered and the domestic spot supply increased, the market fell and sorted. In August, on the one hand, the high external market and abundant raw materials from domestic manufacturers may affect the reduction of import sources in the second half of the month. However, at the same time, there are plans for the production of 120000 T / a new units in Baolai, Liaoning Province, which may continue to supplement domestic demand. The recovery of downstream terminal demand and the upstream butadiene supply increase may exist at the same time. Under the supply and demand deadlock, butadiene analysts of the business community expect that the butadiene market will fluctuate between small areas and wait for the transaction to follow up. The short-term upward pushing resistance is obvious, and the medium and long-term lines need to pay attention to the release of new production capacity.

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