Urea prices in Shandong rose slightly this week (10.12-10.16)

1、 Price trend

 

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This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly, with the quotation rising from 1686.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1690.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.2%, and a decrease of 6.11% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, and the urea commodity index on October 16 was 78.60.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1700 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1670 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was increased by 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the price of open water urea was 1700 yuan / T at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

 

From the perspective of supply and demand, the recent high consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has better cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

 

From the international perspective, India’s RCF urea bidding was launched on the afternoon of 14, with a total bidding volume of 3.6 million tons, and the lowest price of 279.25 CFR US dollars / ton on the east coast. The price was not significantly different from the domestic mainstream regional prices, forming a certain support for the domestic market.

 

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From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the overall rise of urea upstream products this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, with the price of liquefied natural gas rising slightly from 2800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2916.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 4.17%, 23.71% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly this week, from 3166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3200.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.05%, compared with the same period last year Flat. This week, the price of melamine downstream of urea fell slightly, falling 0.60% from 5600.00 at the beginning of the week to 5566.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, this week urea cost support is strong.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In late October, the urea market in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry has a fair enthusiasm for urea procurement, and the short-term urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly.

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