Since 2020, the environmental protection water treatment industry has experienced a difficult year. In the first quarter, the epidemic stopped work, in the second quarter, work resumed gradually, and in the third quarter, the market was light. After crossing the golden nine silver ten, in the fourth quarter, the price rose slightly, and the production has been suspended due to environmental protection requirements. According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency (100ppi), the domestic mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionicity) was 15950 yuan / ton at the beginning of January, and 14500 yuan / ton on December 29, with an annual drop of 9.09%; the 15950 yuan / ton on January 1 was also the highest price of this year, and the lowest price appeared on July 31, only 13566.67%, with the biggest annual vibration 94%.
The monthly market of Polyacrylamide in 2020 is as follows:
During the Spring Festival and related holidays in the main production area, production will be delayed to January 20. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, the logistics returned to normal and mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and some of the raw material costs were reduced and the demand was weak, resulting in higher inventory. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of raw materials such as acrylonitrile rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there was a lot of inventory; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the “propylene PP meltblown cloth mask” industrial chain, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile first dropped sharply, while the cost of polyacrylamide dropped. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products, and rebounded continuously in the second half of the month, but there was no obvious change in the manufacturer’s price. In fact, most manufacturers hoard raw materials, and the cost at the time of purchase determines the price. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. After a slight shock in September, it remained stable, the shock was insignificant, and the demand did not rise significantly. The prosperity of the industry improved in October, but the price changes of different water treatment products were quite different. The ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride increased by 7% in September and October due to the rising prices of raw materials and fuel. Although the raw material price of polyacrylamide also increased, the market price of polyaluminum chloride did not increase as obviously as that of polyaluminum chloride. In November, facing the heating season, the environmental protection requirements are strict. Affected by this, the polyacrylamide manufacturers almost stop production at this time of the year, and the acrylonitrile rises sharply in that month. The downstream demand is weak, the upstream cost is high, the polyacrylamide manufacturers are under great pressure, and the price increases frequently, but the increase rate is not very large. Polyacrylamide manufacturers stop production in December, the main raw material supply will be affected by the shortage of water, that is, the demand for raw materials will be reduced rapidly in December.
To sum up, the water treatment industry will be more difficult in 2020. Manufacturers believe that this year is worse than in previous years. With regard to the future market, the current macroeconomic environment is relatively complex, the domestic economy is good, but the international situation is grim. Under such conditions, the demand side is affected by many factors. Generally speaking, the possibility of significant changes in the price of acrylonitrile in the near future is not great, and the demand of downstream users of water treatment will weaken after the completion of goods preparation a year ago. Whether the manufacturers in the main production areas can resume production depends on the specific requirements of environmental protection. At present, there are many uncertain factors. If they continue to stop production, some prices will rise slightly, but the overall strength is not big, and the overall market is mainly stable.
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