abstract
1。 Market review: in January, the price of raw coal in the upstream rose and fell, the cost side support weakened, and the epidemic prevention and control intensified in various places, resulting in the shortage of methanol logistics and the increase of freight. In addition, there was pressure to drain the warehouse before the Spring Festival holiday, and the methanol price in the main production areas gradually decreased. Under this influence, the main contract ma2105 of methanol futures also fluctuated downward.
2。 Price influencing factors: the overall supply of methanol increased in January, and the supply pressure will increase in the later period. However, it should be noted that the profit of methanol production unit will decline again. At the same time, with the arrival of the Spring Festival, some factories in the downstream areas of methanol will have a holiday ahead of schedule, and the resumption of work after the festival will also face uncertainty, and the demand will weaken. In addition, due to the impact of the Spring Festival and the epidemic situation, some enterprises in the main production areas took the initiative to go to the warehouse, and the inventory of methanol enterprises showed a low operating situation, and the import pressure decreased due to the expansion of the internal and external price difference. It is estimated that the port inventory will continue to go to the warehouse.
3。 Market outlook: on the whole, it is expected that the supply and demand will be weak in February, and the methanol market may continue to be weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery progress of logistics and downstream demand after the festival. In terms of operation, it is suggested to deal with the interval shock, and the uncertainty is large after the festival, so it is better to light the warehouse for the festival.
One. Market Review
In January, the price of raw coal in the upstream rose and fell, the cost side support weakened, and the epidemic prevention and control intensified in various places, which led to the shortage of methanol logistics and the increase of freight. In addition, there was the pressure of warehouse discharge before the Spring Festival holiday, and the methanol price in the main production areas gradually decreased. Under this influence, the main contract ma2105 of methanol futures also fell. Due to the continuous reduction of inventory, the basis presents a backwardation structure, and the futures discount. In addition, due to the fact that some countries in the Middle East are still parking, the price difference between domestic and foreign equipment has been widened.
Two. Price factors
1。 Supply pressure is high, but profit declines again
In January, the methanol plant ran smoothly. As of January 29, the average start-up load of domestic methanol plant was 70.13%, down 1.08% from December. As the increase of domestic production in January was greater than the decrease of methanol import in December, the overall supply increased in January. However, the manufacturers’ strong willingness to discharge inventory led to the low inventory in the year. However, as the weather warms up, some of the methanol plants that have been shut down or overhauled may resume operation. This month, the new methanol production capacity is about 3.6 million tons. The market also has expectations for the later production. If there is no maintenance plan for the existing operating plants in the later period, the supply pressure of methanol in the later period will increase. However, it should be noted that the profit of methanol production unit is declining again.
2。 Low level operation of inventory and continuous de inventory
Affected by the Spring Festival and the epidemic situation, some enterprises in the main production areas took the initiative to go to the warehouse, and some new olefins were purchased stably, which led to the overall circulation of goods relatively stable. In January, the inventory of methanol enterprises showed a low operating situation, and the port also decreased due to the centralized delivery of goods downstream. For the coming February, the number of ships arriving in China from other regions of the Middle East will be significantly reduced, and the import pressure will be reduced due to the expansion of the internal and external price gap. It is estimated that the methanol import volume will be reduced to 810000-830000 tons in February, and the port inventory will continue to be depleted.
3。 Near the Spring Festival, downstream demand is weakening
With the arrival of the Spring Festival, some factories in the lower reaches of methanol have holidays ahead of schedule, and the demand for methanol is weakening. In addition, under the influence of the continuous weakening of methanol futures price, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream, which is dominated by rigid demand procurement. In terms of downstream operation rate, there were mixed ups and downs in January. The traditional downstream operation rate of methanol declined as a whole. Although the consumption of methanol increased slightly this month, it is expected that the consumption of methanol will still fall in February.
As the main emerging downstream product of methanol, olefin, its operation rate rose and fell in January, with little change. In terms of unit operation, Ningbo Fude resumed operation at the end of the month, and Qinghai Salt Lake unit is scheduled to restart on February 8. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the upgrading of the national “plastic restriction order”. The olefin demand side may be affected, and it is expected that the olefin profit will not be greatly improved in the short term. Therefore, the possibility of sudden shutdown of the unit for maintenance cannot be ruled out.
Three. Prospects and suggestions
During the Spring Festival holiday in February, there is an early holiday in some downstream areas before the festival, and affected by public health events, the recovery time of terminal demand after the Spring Festival is uncertain, and the pre-sale situation in coastal areas is not optimistic. However, from February to March, foreign overhaul units are still relatively concentrated, but new units are still put into production in China in the first quarter, and it is expected that the internal and external supply differentiation will be serious. On the whole, the supply and demand are weak. The methanol market may continue to be weak in February. We need to pay attention to the progress of logistics and downstream demand recovery after the festival.
In terms of operation, it is suggested to deal with the interval shock, and the uncertainty is large after the festival, so it is better to light the warehouse for the festival.
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