1、 Price trend
According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic mixed xylene market price continued to rise this week. On February 28, the price of mixed xylene was 5460 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (March 7), the price was 5430 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton or 0.55% from last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
After the festival, xylene rose sharply due to the influence of crude oil, but the downstream demand was weak compared with its rise, which limited the rise of xylene. At the beginning of this week, the bearish crude oil fell back, driving xylene down. In terms of external market, as of March 5, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 753 US dollars / ton, down 51 US dollars / ton or 6.34% in the week compared with February 26; the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 772 US dollars / ton, down 36 US dollars / ton or 4.46% in the week compared with February 26.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil fell first and then rose this week. In the early stage, the market worried that the rapid rise of oil price would lead to the return of more production capacity, and OPEC + might increase production. However, at the OPEC + meeting on the 4th, it was decided to maintain the current scale of production reduction until the end of April, and Saudi Arabia will still reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels per day, boosting crude oil prices. On February 26, Brent rose $3.085/barrel, or 4.68%; WTI rose $4.69/barrel, or 7.66%.
Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price rose 1000 yuan / ton this week, the price was 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year, up 8.06% year on year. As of March 5, the closing prices in Asia were US $850-852 / T FOB Korea and US $868-870 / T CFR China.
In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fluctuated this week, with a slight decline. The price was 730 yuan / ton on February 28 and 4635.83 yuan / ton on March 7, down 1.99% from last week and up 9.48% from the same period last year. The influence of PTA supply pressure was limited, and the poor processing kept low. In March, new PTA production capacity continued to be put into operation, but under the condition of low processing difference, PTA factory’s willingness to repair increased, and warehouse receipts continued to disperse spot pressure, and supply pressure was limited. The downstream polyester load remained high, the PTA demand was good, and the supply and demand pattern was strong. PTA inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in March. Considering that PTA processing gap is at a low level and the space for further compression is limited, PTA processing gap will remain at a low level in March, and PTA price will be relatively strong.
In terms of ox market, the price of ox was stable this week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 6500 yuan / ton, up 30% over the beginning of the year and 16.07% over the same period last year. The supply of o-benzene is sufficient, the cost is weak and stable temporarily; the market of phthalic anhydride and plasticizer DOP in the lower reaches is falling, and the demand is just demand-oriented. O-benzene transaction enthusiasm is general, o-benzene market is temporarily stable.
3、 Future forecast
Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
After the festival, the lower reaches of the market is weaker than xylene, which has strong resistance to high price xylene and weak demand follow-up. Entering March, most downstream enterprises are still looking forward to the market in March. In addition to crude oil, external price support, xylene prices are expected to be strong. Continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of mixed xylene.
| sulphamic acid |