1、 Trend analysis
On March 9, copper prices rose slightly, with spot copper price of 66656.67 yuan / ton, up 0.12% from 66576.67 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, 15.01% from the beginning of the year, and 53.16% from the same period last year. LME3 month copper shock weakened, closing at $8856, down 1.67%. Today, the main force of Shanghai copper was up and down, closing at 65930 yuan, down 0.47%. The main international copper contract closed at 58850 yuan, down 0.39%.
The US $1.9 trillion stimulus plan made progress, and the Fed said that it was still not enough to stimulate the fed to raise interest rates. Economic growth and inflation expectations rose, which made the US bond yield and the US dollar stronger. The domestic copper stock in the upper reaches of the river has dropped sharply, and the processing fee TC has continued to drop, resulting in high smelting costs. It is expected that the impact of Chile’s port storm will begin to ease, but the epidemic situation in Peru has not yet improved, and the copper shortage situation is difficult to change. The performance of downstream domestic demand is still weak, but the domestic inventory is still significantly lower than that in the same period of previous years, although it has entered the accumulation cycle. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in March and April, the growth of copper import shows that the demand is strong, and the traditional consumption peak season is approaching, the downstream demand is still expected to improve, and the space below the copper price is limited, and it is expected that the short-term copper will maintain the fluctuation adjustment trend.
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