The market of liquid ammonia rose sharply in March. According to the monitoring of the business association, the monthly increase of liquid ammonia was 17.16%. By the end of the month, the mainstream price in Shandong was 3700-3850 yuan / ton.
In the first half of March, the liquid ammonia market was mainly stable, and the domestic supply and demand were basically balanced. With the constraints of urea price, the liquid ammonia market remained tepid. In the second half of March, the liquid ammonia market was like a rocket, and the price continued to rise. The main reason was the shortage of supply caused by frequent maintenance of large factories in the market. Many manufacturers in different regions in China carried out maintenance one after another, which gradually spread from the shortage of regional supply to the shortage of national supply, In Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Shaanxi, there are large factories overhauling, especially in Northeast China, two of which are overhauling. In addition, some factories in Shandong stop selling liquid ammonia for their own use, and the market shortage leads to continuous price rise, especially in the latter half of the year. Basically, the price rises every day, with a range of 50-100. In addition, due to the impact of urea price rise, the price of urea has increased since March In the case of India’s urea bidding in June, the price of domestic urea continued to rise when the domestic urea export was good. The addition of urea at the same time meant the reduction of liquid ammonia, especially in the areas with ammonia shortage. The demand side is rigid and stable. In the peak season of spring ploughing, the downstream replenishment increases, and the supply exceeds the demand, which leads to the continuous sharp surge of liquid ammonia.
Urea price trend chart
In terms of urea, urea rose intensively in the second half of the month. According to the monitoring of the business society, urea rose by nearly 5% from March 15 to 31. On the one hand, foreign trade led domestic trade procurement, large factories frequently repaired urea, and the domestic market inventory was also at a low level. Although some light storage sources were released at the beginning of April, the operating rate of Inner Mongolia plants continued to decline due to the impact of double control, and the market expected to have a negative impact on domestic supply The effect is still obvious. It is expected that the short-term urea price will strengthen or continue to break through, and will seek a balance between export and domestic supply.
Map of price trend of map
Price trend of DAP
As far as the downstream compound fertilizer is concerned, it is generally consolidated at a high point, and the rising trend is weak. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 3.36% in March, while the price of diammonium phosphate increased by 8.32%. It can be seen that the downstream is still weak. The price rise of the upstream may further affect the profits of the downstream. The market has obviously entered a stagflation period. With the end of spring cultivation and fertilizer preparation, the agricultural demand continues to weaken It is expected that the high price of raw materials may further lead to the decline of demand.
In the future, the business community believes that the current shortage of liquid ammonia supply may be alleviated in the near future. After the Qingming Festival, the news of plant start-up will be released, large plants in Henan may resume production after the festival, and the plant in Chongqing will resume production in mid April. In addition, the delivery of goods in Northeast China will also increase, and the supply is expected to increase slowly in the near future. Therefore, the price of liquid ammonia may reach the top at present.
| sulphamic acid |