Price trend
According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of o-benzene plunged from a high level in March, and the price of o-benzene dropped three times in a row. In March, the price of o-benzene dropped by 1100 yuan / ton. As of March 31, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 5400.00 yuan / ton, down 16.92% compared with 6500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (March 1).
Upstream market of industrial chain
It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that the price of mixed xylene fluctuated in March, the overall market of mixed xylene was strong, and the price of mixed xylene remained high. In March, the price of o-xylene dropped by 1100 yuan / ton. Correspondingly, the price of mixed xylene remained high, the theoretical profit of o-xylene was negative, and the decline space of o-xylene price was infinitely reduced. As of March 31, the price of mixed xylene was 5400-5500 yuan / ton, and that of o-xylene was 5400 yuan / ton. The cost pressure of o-xylene increased, while the downward pressure of o-xylene remained, and the upward momentum increased.
Port inventory hit a new high in recent years
In 2021, affected by the concentration of imported goods and inland ship goods, the port inventory of o-xylene in the terminal continued to grow, and the main port in East China’s o-xylene inventory exceeded 60000 tons, reaching the highest level in the past five years. According to customs statistics, the total domestic imports of o-xylene from January to February 2021 were 67300 tons, up 573% over the same period of last year. As of April 1, the external quotation of o-xylene in major Asian regions was 760-810 US dollars / ton, down sharply from 835-855 US dollars / ton in early March, with the largest drop of 95 US dollars / ton. The sharp drop of external quotation and overstock of port inventory have dragged down the continuous decline of domestic price of o-benzene.
Future forecast
Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene in business news agency, believes that in terms of cost, mixed xylene remained high in March, and the price of o-xylene continued to fall, forming a tearing market. In terms of the external market, the port’s o-benzene inventory reached a new high, the inventory backlog was serious, and the external quotation fell sharply, and the external o-benzene price fell sharply, which stimulated the domestic o-benzene price to fall. On the whole, the domestic price of o-benzene has little room to fall, but the port inventory is high, so the price of o-benzene is difficult to rise; in March, the operating rate of o-phthalic anhydride manufacturers declined, the downstream demand of o-benzene obviously declined, so the port inventory is difficult to fall, and the support for the rise of o-benzene is insufficient. In the future, the loss of o-benzene will expand, which may increase the production reduction of manufacturers, but the price of o-benzene will not rise again before the consumption of port inventory. Moreover, the main downstream product of o-benzene, o-phthalic anhydride, is impacted by naphthalene phthalic anhydride, which has a greater cost advantage, and the demand for o-benzene may be further reduced in the future. The price of o-benzene is expected to be stable in the future.
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