Price trend of spot precious metals
According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in the early market on April 2 was 5185 yuan / kg, and the average price of spot market price in the early market was 5480.33 yuan / kg, or 5.39% compared with that of the early (January 1), which was 5.39%, which was 6.58% lower than that of the early spot market on January 1.
Spot price of gold on April 2 was 368 yuan / g, up 0.66% compared with the average price of early market in early market of early market (3.1) in early April (3.1); compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), spot price of gold was 392.70 yuan / g, down 6.29%.
The price data in the year showed that the decline of precious metal gold silver was similar. In the early stage, silver was affected by the news side of American retail investors, and it fluctuated upward, and then it retreated to the news side for speculative increase. Silver prices began to fill the decline in March, and gold began to fluctuate in a small horizontal.
Similar to Gamestop, silver forced the blank, which helped the price of silver rise sharply in the late January. However, based on the silver market size reaching around $200billion, combined with the regulatory policy of exchange position restriction, silver won’t be able to push the sky. Return to the trend of precious metal decline.
Will the recent US non-agricultural employment data of March have a significant impact on the basic aspects of precious metals?
The influence geometry of the data of American and non agricultural on gold
The number of non-agricultural employment in the United States rose the largest since August. Affected by rapid vaccination and the implementation of $1400 relief fund, 916000 new non-agricultural employment was added in March, and the employment market represented by the private sector rebounded significantly.
With the government gradually relaxing the restrictions on activities, 280000 new employees in the bar, hotel and hotel industries, which were most affected by the epidemic, were employed; the employment situation in March was improved in the construction industry affected by the snowstorm in February. In addition to the better performance of new jobs, the unemployment rate fell to 6 per cent in March.
The data may increase market expectations of the Fed’s early tightening. We believe that the second quarter stimulus will gradually come into effect and accelerate the recovery. The dollar will continue to strengthen in the future, which may put pressure on precious metals.
Can the speculative enthusiasm of gold bars in the United States continue in 2020
Unlike the trend of bulk metals, gold has fallen continuously since its peak in August 2020. At present, the price has been at a low level of nearly 10 months, close to the price level at the end of March 2020.
Before the fall, precious metals were in the upward phase, and gold bullion investment was more enthusiastic in the United States. In 2019, the retail investment volume of gold in the United States was about 20 tons, with relatively weak level, and then it increased by more than three times in 2020, reaching 66 tons. On the one hand, after 2016, the investment demand of gold bullion has moved down the ladder and fell to the bottom of history; on the other hand, the special market in 2020 has helped to boost speculation enthusiasm.
The special market is mainly reflected in the following 2 points:
1. Gold price rise trend in 2020
The rising trend of gold price in 2020 provides a huge impetus for the upsurge of investment enthusiasm. In particular, August set a record high. The strong performance of gold price attracted new investors to the market.
2. risk aversion caused by epidemic
The panic of the novel coronavirus pneumonia in 2020 left the sharp fluctuations in commodity prices. The sharp increase in gold sales in the U. Speculation, coupled with concerns about interest rate cuts and inflation, such as the Fed’s move to zero in the first quarter of 2020 also spurred investment demand in 2020.
So can the speculative enthusiasm of American gold bars continue in 2021?
According to relevant data, the sales of Golden Eagle Coins exceeded 220000 ounces (about 6 tons) in January 2021. This is the highest monthly total sales since December 2009 and the strongest January sales of the century so far.
From January alone, enthusiasm is still high, mainly due to the expected US dollar water release at the beginning of the year. But from the domestic consumption market, the recent private investment demand of gold bars is not very high. Although the recent gold price is in the stage of high falling, there are not many long-term investment customers who dare to operate at high level. After all, in the uncertain situation, the probability of high price closing is very high.
Where will the price of precious metals go in the post epidemic era
1. lack of investment demand
After the peak investment in 2020, the heat intensity of precious metals gradually decreases. With the continuous introduction of vaccines into the market, the expected recovery of the economy from the epidemic intensified, and the possibility of real interest rate rise.
The expectation of investment funds outflow from gold ETF is increasing, and the position of domestic gold ETF is affected by the strong exchange rate and other factors.
2. closure of alternative assets
Other alternative assets, including the recent surge in commodity markets and so-called competitive bitcoin, have dispersed investors’ demand for gold.
It is expected that the space of precious metals will narrow down, and the main focus in the later period is whether the turning point of the basic plane will come.
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