Weak demand, pressure on the cost side, PA6 market long and short tangled

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market in April was generally volatile, and the spot price rebounded after falling. As of May 1, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for CNMC 2.75-2.85 was about 14833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.11% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 43.09% compared with the same period last year.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

In terms of upstream caprolactam, it generally took on the market of tight supply of petrochemical industry chain in March, and the domestic spot price of caprolactam continued to callback at the beginning of April. The pressure of continuous abundant supply on the market supply side was not eased until the maintenance load of enterprises decreased in the middle of the month. The follow-up of downstream demand is general, and the profits of the industry are affected. Raw material pure benzene continued to rise, coupled with the pre holiday replenishment boom, caprolactam cost pressure follow-up rise.

The price of raw material caprolactam began to rise, the cost support of PA6 increased, and continued to fall in the first half of April and began to rebound. At that time, the decline of PA6 had lasted for more than a month. During the period, the supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the market transaction power was insufficient. Traders and factories began to accumulate inventory, and the high inventory and the drop of spot reduced the profit of polymerization plant. After the end of the festival, the recent profits of domestic PA6 polymerization plants are still negative, and some enterprises are passively reducing the negative. By the end of this month, the domestic PA6 operation rate had dropped to about 72%. The downstream purchasing situation is still dominated by rigid demand, and the industry mainly digests the existing inventory, so it is difficult to say a good market atmosphere.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: April PA6 upstream caprolactam consolidation shock rise, PA6 cost support is acceptable. The purchase intention of PA6 downstream factories is not strong, and the end users mainly operate cautiously, and the demand continues to be weak. However, the recent rise of pure benzene in the industrial chain has boosted caprolactam and PA6. In addition, caprolactam production lines are still overhauled one after another. Generally speaking, the fundamentals of PA6 are long and short, and the price of PA6 is expected to fluctuate.